The latest research suggests Delta may necessitate new vaccines and raise herd immunity thresholds.
Good morning. David Meyer here in Berlin, filling in for Alan.
As we are all hopefully aware by this point, the Delta variant of the coronavirus is a game changer due to its high transmissibility—and potentially other characteristics that we’re not quite sure about yet. Our understanding seems to evolve on a near-daily basis, albeit in a fragmented sort of way, so let’s have a quick roundup of the latest news on the subject.
First up: the issue of vaccines’ efficacy against the strain. New research from the U.K. suggests that, while current COVID-19 vaccines do still offer a relatively high degree of protection against Delta—you’re three times less likely to catch it if fully vaccinated, the study found—the antibodies the vaccines raise are becoming less effective against the variant.
That means vaccines may need to be tweaked to address Delta, which raises a big question: should countries that are planning to roll out booster shots soon, such as Germany, France and the U.K., really be doing so with the current generation of vaccines, or should those shots be going instead to countries that urgently need them to give people basic protection now, thus reducing the likelihood of new variants emerging?
Second: Delta raises the threshold for herd immunity. While the initial threshold was pegged at somewhere between 60% and 70%, experts now think it would need to be more in the region of 90%. Barring well-enforced vaccine mandates, which obviously carry huge political risks, I can’t see that happening in many countries—in the U.S., for example, nearly half of unvaccinated Americans have no intention of getting jabbed. The implications are obviously not good for the longevity of COVID-19 restrictions (Germany for one is anticipating measures continuing into the winter.)
Third: as Fortune reporters Grady McGregor, Biman Mukherji and Sophie Mellor report in this deep piece, we still don’t know why the Delta-fueled waves in the U.K. and India suddenly dropped off. So, while everyone obviously hopes the same will happen in the U.S., nobody really knows if the country will be so lucky.
Finally, some good-ish news, though not Delta-related as such: U.K. researchers have found that kids who get sick with COVID-19 mostly recover within a week. The study was conducted before Delta became widespread in the country, but the researchers say they expect to see similar results with the newer variant. I say “good-ish” because 1.8% of the observed COVID-positive children still had symptoms more than two months later, and that’s by no means a negligible figure given the scale of the problem.
More news below.
David Meyer
@superglaze
david.meyer@fortune.com
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This edition of CEO Daily was edited by David Meyer.
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