Also: Chip boom, Amazon private-label, and vaccine backslide.
Good morning.
I am repeatedly amazed how little people consider history when prognosticating about markets and the economy. So I am pleased Fortune’s newest Quarterly Investment Report is heavily rooted in history. Some tidbits:
• There have been 13 bear markets since the end of World War II, and on average, the loss from top to bottom has been 32.7%. That means we may still have a way to go.
• It’s taken an average of 12 months to go from peak to trough—more reason to think we might not have bottomed out yet.
• It then takes an average of roughly 21 months to go from the trough back to the previous peak. So the roundtrip takes about three years.
• Bear markets are often, but not always, followed by a recession. In the summer of 1946, the market fell 27% with no recession to follow for years. The famous Black Monday crash of 1987 also wasn’t followed by a recession.
• Since 1945, however, there have been nine times when the inflation rate spiked above 5%. And in every case, it took a recession to bring inflation back down. It seems pretty clear from that experience the only known way to stop price spikes is to slow demand in the economy.
Bottom line: we may or may not experience a recession this year. (There is certainly no sign of it yet, as economist Mark Zandi says here.) But history suggests that if we don’t, we’re only delaying the pain. “Soft landings” are nice for policy makers to talk about…but historically, they aren’t a thing.
You can get more detail in the full report, here. It also includes 11 stocks to buy in the downturn, as well as Shawn Tully’s strategy for surviving it. (Hint: it’s not “buy the dip.”) But a warning: this content is available only to s. Maybe now is the time to sign up, if you haven’t already.
Other news below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
Editor’s note: Yesterday’s essay has been updated in its online version to clarify the timeline of Luckey’s Oculus sale and his firing from Facebook.
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Chip boom
The chip industry’s record profits could be nearing an end, thanks to weakening consumer demand and excessive stockpiling during the supply crunch. TSMC, which yesterday reported a record 76.4% boost to Q2 profits yesterday, also said it would likely take a few quarters for inventory in the supply chain to “rebalance to a healthier level.” Fortune
Amazon private-label
Amazon is reportedly slashing its range of own-branded items due to weak sales, and may even pull out of that business entirely. Antitrust regulators never liked the fact that Amazon competes with its third-party sellers anyway. Wall Street Journal
Vaccine backslide
The COVID pandemic may have led to billions of COVID vaccinations, but it’s also been disastrous for the kinds of vaccinations that kids normally get, for things like tetanus, measles, and polio. According to Unicef and the World Health Organization, 25 million children missed essential routine vaccinations last year—six million more than in 2019, before the pandemic struck. Reuters
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