Also: Microsoft hack, ADM suspends CFO, McKinsey's MP vote.
Good morning.
One last post from Davos: The Fortune CEO dinner Thursday night was attended by some 80 CEOs from a wide range of industries, including Amazon’s Andy Jassy, Intel’s Pat Gelsinger, Occidental’s Vicki Hollub, Nasdaq’s Adena Friedman, Deloitte’s Joe Ucuzoglu, C3.ai’s Tom Siebel, Workday’s Carl Eschenbach, Toptal’s Taso Du Val, Williams Sonoma’s Laura Alber, Grab’s Anthony Tan, Ctrip’s Jane Sun, Honeywell’s Vimal Kapur, Dow’s Jim Fitterling, HP’s Enrique Lores, Yum China’s Joey Wat and others. We asked the CEOs to discuss at their tables the biggest risks and the biggest opportunities facing business in 2024. The discussions were held under Chatham House rules, so I can’t report individual comments. But each of the eight tables reported back on their conversations at the end of the evening, offering an interesting window into how the CEOs are thinking about the year ahead. Here’s a summary:
The biggest risk to business in 2024
—“The biggest risk is the danger of today’s AI on society and influence on the elections that are coming up as well as on escalating military conflict.”
—“The biggest risk is elections—3 billion people, 40 elections, representing 60% of GDP happening this year…and misinformation that can destroy trust through an election and undermine society at large.”
—“Geopolitical risk is the most important risk in 2024—the different wars that are going on and the potential for expansion….The most important election of 2024 already happened in Taiwan.”
—“The No. 1 risk is geopolitical risk.“
—“The biggest risk is geopolitical. No. 2 is the separation between science and society and the fact that people don’t believe anymore what science is saying.”
—“The normalization of geopolitical conflict could be a really big issue…with part of that being what would happen to destabilize America if Trump wins, and how that will have ramifications in the geopolitical field.”
—“In terms of risk, we talked about three A’s—asteroids, AI, and assholes…assholes meaning politicians, misinformation, deep fakes—you name it.
—“Terrorism hasn’t gone away, and the root cause of that is disparity in our societies more broadly.”
The biggest opportunity for business in 2024
—“The biggest opportunity for 2024 is the transformational benefits of AI on health care and on accelerating the sustainability work we are trying to do to save the planet.”
—“The opportunity we discussed most was applying AI to digital health delivery, drug discovery, disease, cures and outcomes…And the next was the power to really transform the core of our businesses.”
—“AI in health care and in retooling businesses fundamentally.”
—“AI and its potential to drive down the cost curve of whatever we do to find cheaper, more efficient ways to solve the problems we have…And I think one important point is: It’s not about replacing people, it’s about using the technology to help our people do a better job.”
—“The opportunity is AI. No. 2 is nearshoring, and the opportunities that all the investments that the U.S. is going to do could create in the U.S.”
—“The uncertainty we’re facing now is actually the opportunity. The volatility of the moment is where we can seize the opportunity.”
—“We talked about health, wellness, and longevity, and the opportunity for AI to help us all live better, healthier lives.”
—“Skills upgrade is the biggest opportunity, because the world is scared of AI, but the truth is it’s going to supplement skills. Also health care.”
I’d welcome thoughts from other readers. News below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
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Microsoft gets hacked
Microsoft revealed on Friday that state actors hacked the email accounts of senior executives, getting access to messages and documents. The U.S. company said it shut down the intrusion a week ago, but admitted hackers had access as early as November. Microsoft accused Midnight Blizzard, a Russian-state sponsored hacker group. Fortune
ADM accounting
Archer Daniels Midland put CFO Vikram Luthar on administrative leave due to an investigation into accounting practices at the company’s nutrition unit. ADM said it is also cooperating with a voluntary document request from the SEC. The company expects to delay the release of its fourth-quarter and full-year earnings, and is withdrawing guidance for its nutrition division. The Wall Street Journal
McKinsey votes
Bob Sternfels failed to win a second term as McKinsey’s global managing partner on the consulting company’s first round of voting among 750 senior partners. Partners are annoyed with Sternfels’s penchant to make major changes–like last year’s restructuring–without enough consultation. If Sternfels fails to win a majority after three rounds of voting, he will be the second consecutive McKinsey head to be ejected after just one term. Financial Times
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