Also: Byju's blow-up, Amazon squeezes sellers, Boeing x Spirit. 
Good morning.
If you are interested in the question of whether AI will destroy good jobs, you should read this essay by David Autor, published last month in Noema Magazine. Autor is one of the leading thinkers and researchers on the subject of technology and labor, and his deep dive into the data on this subject provides as good a guide as you will find today.
First, will AI lead to fewer jobs? On this, Autor’s answer is unqualified: No. At least not anytime soon. “The industrialized world is awash in jobs, and it’s going to stay that way…Due to plummeting birth rates and a cratering labor force, a comparable labor shortage is unfolding across the industrialized world (including in China). That’s not a prediction. It’s a demographic fact.”
A second question—and to me the more interesting one—is this: Will AI continue the trend toward increasing inequality that accompanied the last wave of technology? Here, Autor’s answer is more qualified: Maybe not. But it’s the deep analysis that makes this long read worth the time. My (paltry) summary below.
In the early days of the Information Age, there were many who argued that computers would “flatten economic hierarchies by democratizing information.” Instead, the opposite happened. Says Autor: “Information, it turns out, is merely an input for a more consequential economic function, decision-making, which is the province of elite experts—typically the minority of U.S. adults who hold college or graduate degrees.” As a result, the premium paid to experts skyrocketed, and inequality increased.
But AI offers a way to expand decision-making expertise. It enables a larger group of workers—and here’s a key phrase: “equipped with necessary foundational skills”—to “perform higher-stake decision-making tasks currently arrogated to elite experts, such as doctors, lawyers, software engineers and college professors. In essence, AI—used well—can assist with restoring the middle-skill, middle-class heart” of the labor market.
Autor compares AI to a pneumatic nail gun in the hands of a roofer. It doesn’t eliminate the demand for roofers, but it greatly increases their productivity. He also uses nurse practitioners as an easy-to-understand example. Armed with appropriate AI tools, their ability to do work once limited to doctors greatly expands.
Is Autor’s analysis correct? It’s still early days for AI, and there no doubt will be surprises along the way. But there is reason to be optimistic.
And check out Jessica Mathews’ latest probing piece on why the Elon Musk-inspired vision of a transportation Hyperloop is running aground.
Other news below.
Alan Murray
@alansmurray
alan.murray@fortune.com
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Billionaire blow-up
Late last month, shareholders in Indian ed-tech firm Byju’s—once India’s most valuable startup—voted to oust its CEO, founder Byju Raveendran. It’s the latest twist in Byju’s years-long fall from the heady heights of the pandemic, including allegations of a toxic work culture and unethical sales tactics (both of which the company denies). Byju’s success was “all a hype, an illusion,” said one former employee. Fortune
Amazon puts the squeeze on sellers
Amazon is charging new fees to third-party retailers on its platform, which sellers say make it “increasingly difficult to sell” on the platform. New charges include a fee on packages entering Amazon’s network and a penalty for low inventory levels. Goods sold by third-party sellers now outsell goods sold directly by Amazon on the company’s e-commerce platform; about a quarter of Amazon’s revenue comes from fees charged to these small retailers. Fortune
Boeing needs Spirit
Boeing is in discussions to buy Spirit AeroSystems, the supplier that made the door plug that was ripped off an Alaska Airlines flight in January. A deal, if it happens, would reverse Boeing’s decision to outsource much of its manufacturing; Spirit was born from Boeing’s decision to sell some of its factories in 2005. Boeing is under pressure to convince customers and regulators that its planes are safe to fly. The Wall Street Journal
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