California’s House contingent hinges on new maps

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Friday Nov 12,2021 02:13 pm
Presented and Paid for by Consumer Attorneys of California Initiative Defense Political Action Committee: Jeremy B. White’s must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State
Nov 12, 2021 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Jeremy B. White, Isabella Bloom and Graph Massara

Presented and Paid for by Consumer Attorneys of California Initiative Defense Political Action Committee

THE BUZZ — MAPPING THE CHANGES: California’s possible 2022 battlegrounds are starting to come into focus.

A caveat, before we delve into our analyses of the draft House maps California’s redistricting commission released last night: None of this is final. In fact, the prevailing presumption in Sacramento is that those proposed lines will shift again before district-delineators put out the final maps in late December. Many candidates and party organizations have so far refrained from formally weighing in on these still-fluid boundaries. And don’t forget: House members don’t need to live in their districts, which means they can run somewhere further afield if that’s now a better political fit.

That said, and with apologies to the Legislature, here are some of the early takeaways on the House landscape, with compliments to the experts at California Target Book and to terrific California reporters who have been all over the state:

OC REORGANIZATION Orange County remains a purple hub of competitive California campaigns, and that’s a mixed bag for incumbents. These latest draft maps would put Democratic Rep. Katie Porter in a tougher district by carving away some of liberal Irvine and adding parts of right-leaning cities, while GOP Rep. Michelle Steel could face a tougher fight to keep her seat if her district gains some of Irvine and loses areas strong with the GOP base. Republican Rep. Young Kim could see her district become more concentrated in Orange County, while Democratic Rep. Mike Levin could be in for a tougher race than in 2020. The O.C. Register’s Brooke Staggs dug into the numbers.

SAC SHUFFLESacramento-area incumbents could have to play musical chairs under these maps, given their overlapping districts: It looks like the district of Democratic Rep. Doris Matsui would share parts of the seats overseen by fellow Democrats Ami Bera and John Garamendi and GOP Rep. Tom McClintock. Garamendi could be in a tricky spot, as the map lops off a substantial northern chunk of his current district, potentially forcing him into unfamiliar terrain where he’s less well known to voters. Sacramento’s urban core would be sliced in half.

RIVERSIDE RUMBLE GOP Rep. Ken Calvert could see his reasonably safe Republican seat become more competitive as it sweeps in blue-leaning areas like Palm Springs, per the Riverside Press-Enterprise’s Jeff Horseman.

L.A. LURCH Rep. Mike Garcia has been widely viewed as California’s most vulnerable Republican incumbent, after eking out a 333-vote win in 2020. The proposed maps appear to put Garcia in even greater danger by stripping out conservative Simi Valley and reaching into more Democratic parts of L.A. County. It also looks like Rep. Lucille Roybal-Allard could be out of a job soon , as California loses a House seat due largely to L.A.’s population shrinkage.

VYING FOR THE VALLEYThe Central Valley may see profound changes. It appears that these maps would make GOP Rep. David Valadao’s battleground seat a little friendlier to the incumbent while imperiling frontline Democratic Rep. Josh Harder. But the shift that drew the strongest reactions was the possibility that Rep. Devin Nunes — ally of former President Donald Trump and perennial target of national Democrats — could see his seat shift substantially bluer, although the smart money is on him then moving to a less challenging House seat in the Valley.

SAN DIEGO SCRAMBLEWe could see a multi-Dem food fight in San Diego County, as it looks like Reps. Juan Vargas, Sara Jacobs and Scott Peters could see their districts infringe on one another’s turf.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Friday morning. Porter is talking to the Sacramento Press Club at noon today. And a programming reminder: California Playbook is off next week, November 15-19, and returning the subsequent Monday.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit jwhite@politico.com or follow me on Twitter @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: The “overwhelming message that young prosecutors were getting at that time throughout California was that criminals are nails and we were the hammers. … Hammer away.” Yolo District Attorney Jeff Reisig on the arc of criminal justice, via the LATimes.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Sac Bee reporter @HannahCWiley on a redistricting oddity: “The La Bous on either side of the Capitol would fall under two congressional districts and this is what I am thinking about now.”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

Paid for by Consumer Attorneys of California Initiative Defense Political Action Committee:

Who’s behind attacks on justice in California? Meet the Civil Justice Association of California: a front group for multibillion-dollar corporations dead set on restricting consumers’ ability to fight back against injustice. These powerful corporations are anything but “a trusted source of expertise in legal reform and advocacy” - they’re simply out to buy more power by hiding behind CJAC. These corporations already have outsized influence in California politics. They shouldn’t be allowed to buy more. Learn More. Paid for by Consumer Attorneys of California Initiative Defense Political Action Committee.

 
TOP TALKERS

GET IN LINE — “All adults can get a COVID vaccine booster in California, not just those CDC listed,” by NPR’s Jonathan Franklin: “People in California who are 18 and older are eligible for a COVID booster shot as long as at least six months have passed their second dose of the two-shot Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or two months must have passed since their Johnson & Johnson shot.”

FREEWAY TOLL — “Freeways force out residents in communities of color — again,” by the LA Times’ Liam Dillon and Ben Poston: “The U.S. Interstate Highway System — built from the 1950s to the early 1990s — is one of the country’s greatest public works achievements, but it came at an enormous social cost.”

— “The making of Jalen Lewis: America's youngest pro could change basketball,” by the SF Chronicle’s Connor Letourneau: “In July, Jalen, a 16-year-old Oaklander and ESPN’s No. 2-ranked prospect among high school juniors, became the youngest professional basketball player in U.S. history. … In forfeiting his eligibility to play in college, he received a two-year contract worth a reported $1.2 million, equity stakes in the league, health insurance and the ability to sign a direct sponsorship with a sneaker company.”

CHILD VACCINE DATA — “ Here’s how many California kids have had a COVID vaccine, about a week into rollout,” by The Sac Bee’s Michael McGough: “Close to 150,000 Californians ages 5 to 11 have gotten their first dose of a COVID-19 vaccine since young children became eligible last week, new state data show… The state estimates it has about 3.5 million children ages 5 to 11, so the early figure represents about 4.2% of the newly eligible population.”

 

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S SUSTAINABILITY SUMMIT: Join POLITICO's Sustainability Summit on Tuesday, Nov. 16 and hear leading voices from Washington, state houses, city halls, civil society and corporate America discuss the most viable policy and political solutions that balance economic, environmental and social interests. REGISTER HERE.

 
 
CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— “Judge denies L.A. police union’s request to block vaccine mandate,” by the LA Times’ Kevin Rector: “A judge on Wednesday denied a request by the Los Angeles police union that he block the city’s COVID-19 vaccination mandate for police officers from taking effect. … Under the city’s mandate, all city employees including police officers are required to be fully vaccinated by Dec. 18 unless they are granted a medical or religious exemption, and agree in the run-up to the deadline to submit to regular coronavirus testing if they are unvaccinated.”

— “ Richmond leadership in turmoil as city officials depart and mayor faces potential censure,” by The Mercury News’ Annie Sciacca: “Richmond City Hall is in turmoil, with the city attorney resigning, the city manager leaving and the council agreeing to consider censuring the mayor — all within the past week.”

SPENDING PLANS — “ Biden infrastructure funds will help state bullet train, but not as much as boosters hoped,” by the LA Times’ Ralph Vartabedian: “The infrastructure bill that President Biden plans to sign Monday contains a historic amount of new funding for passenger rail service and aims to remake its role in American transportation, but any boost for the nation’s bullet train ambitions will be limited at best.”

SAFE TO BREATHE? — “ EPA must deal with air ‘crisis’ in San Joaquin Valley, lawsuit says. It’s not the first,” by The Fresno Bee’s Yesenia Amaro: “Several groups filed a federal lawsuit against the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency claiming the agency has chosen not to intervene in California’s repeated failures to meet decades-old air pollution targets for fine particulate matter in the San Joaquin Valley.”

GUN TRACING — " California Police Aren’t Tracking Crime Guns, Ignoring Thousands of Potential Leads," by The Trace's Champe Barton: "Law enforcement agencies across California are failing to correctly log guns in a state firearms database, preventing thousands of weapons from being traced by the federal government. Experts say the lapse may be hampering police investigations and keeping gun smugglers in the shadows."

REPARATIVE JUSTICE — “ A closer look at the ongoing reparations movement in California and beyond,” by CNN’s Brandon Tensley: “A year after California became the first state in the country to establish a reparations task force — an effort propelled by Secretary of State Shirley Weber — panel members have started to wrestle more earnestly with two fundamental questions: What might compensation look like? And who might be eligible?”

HURON DISPATCH — “ Babies Are Dying of Syphilis. It’s 100% Preventable,” by Caroline Chen for ProPublica: “[Mai] Yang found herself walking through a homeless encampment on a blazing July day in Huron, California, an hour’s drive southwest of her office at the Fresno County Department of Public Health. She was looking for a pregnant woman named Angelica, whose visit to a community clinic had triggered a report to the health department’s sexually transmitted disease program. Angelica had tested positive for syphilis.”

LISTEN IN — “How California schools plan to spend Covid windfall,” by EdSource’s Zaidee Stavely and John Fensterwald.

STUDENT-HOUSING SHORTAGE — "California college students live in vans and hotels as campus housing plans spark backlash," by the LA Times' Teresa Watanabe: "After months of pandemic isolation, Kris Hotchkiss expected a celebratory return to campus for his senior year at UC Santa Barbara. Instead, he and hundreds of fellow students have found themselves hammered by another crisis: a major housing crunch."

 

Paid for by Consumer Attorneys of California Initiative Defense Political Action Committee:

Advertisement Image

 
CAMPAIGN MODE

BREAKDOWN — “What Redistricting Looks Like In Every State,” via FiveThirtyEight: “An updating tracker of proposed congressional maps — and whether they might benefit Democrats or Republicans in the 2022 midterms and beyond.”

SILICON VALLEYLAND

ALWAYS WATCHING — “Contract lawyers face a growing invasion of surveillance programs that monitor their work,” by The Washington Post’s Drew Harwell: “Facial recognition systems have become an increasingly common element of the rapid rise in work-from-home surveillance during the coronavirus pandemic. Employers argue that they offer a simple and secure way to monitor a scattered workforce. … But the software has also become a flash point for broader questions about how companies treat their remote workforces, especially those, like contract attorneys, whose short-term gigs limit their ability to push for change.”

NEW MONOPOLY — “ Facebook is quietly buying up the metaverse,” by Vox Recode’s Peter Kafka: “Of the many complaints about Facebook, one comes through consistently: It’s just too big. Which is why some critics and regulators want to make it smaller by forcing Mark Zuckerberg to unwind major acquisitions, like Instagram. Zuckerberg’s response: Let’s get bigger by buying more stuff.”

HOLLYWOODLAND

— “'Rust' Tragedy, Labor Climate Frame Hollywood Contract Vote,” by the AP’s Lynn Elber: “With forces from the pandemic to the economy also framing union members' views, bread-and-butter issues of wages and pensions remain important. But long-entrenched concerns about danger on the job have taken on increased urgency.”

BAD MOVIE, GOOD PODCAST — “‘So Bad, It’s Hilarious’: Hollywood’s Biggest Duds Finally Find Fans,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Chris Kornelis: “Legions of movie nerds tune in and attend live recordings of popular bad-movie podcasts that sometimes run longer than the films they razz.”

SPLIT VOTE — " Film crew workers remain divided over new contract as voting begins," by the LA. Times' Anousha Sakoui: "The agreement includes nearly 60% pay increases for some crews that are paid near minimum wage in California and for the first time guarantees 54-hour rest periods over weekends. But union members who gathered outside Dolby Theatre on Hollywood Boulevard’s Walk of Fame Thursday said the contract didn’t do enough to improve working conditions on sets for crews."

 

BECOME A GLOBAL INSIDER: The world is more connected than ever. It has never been more essential to identify, unpack and analyze important news, trends and decisions shaping our future — and we’ve got you covered! Every Monday, Wednesday and Friday, Global Insider author Ryan Heath navigates the global news maze and connects you to power players and events changing our world. Don’t miss out on this influential global community. Subscribe now.

 
 
MIXTAPE

— "California Warehouse Quotas Law Depends on Those it Shields," by Bloomberg's Fatima Hussein and Tiffany Stecker.

— “ Stockpiling for a Super Bowl run, Rams add wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr.,” by the LA Times’ Gary Klein.

— “Resident fatally shoots suspect in California home invasion,” via the AP.

HONORING VETERANS — “ ‘A life of service.’ This Sacramento veteran served in World War II, Korea and Vietnam,” by The Sac Bee’s Molly Sullivan.

AT LONG LAST — “The story on how LAUSD coaches will get first raises since 1999,” opines the LA Times’ Eric Sondheimer.

— “Diversify the world of classical music? Some key players are digging in their heels,” by the SF Chronicle’s Joshua Kosman.

GUESS WHICH — “California school district will not comply with Newsom's COVID-19 vaccine mandate, prepared to accept costs,” by Fox News’ Pilar Arias.

— “12 years after being locked up as a teen, he finds mercy from the D.A. who put him there,” by the LA Times’ Anita Chabria.

BIRTHDAYS

Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf … POLITICO’s Debra Kahn Morley Winograd Olivia Lange ... former Rep. Diane Watson … Protocol’s Bennett Richardson

IN MEMORIAM

— “Longtime Bay Area News Group reporter Peter Hegarty dies at 56,” by the East Bay Times’ Shomik Mukherjee: “Peter Hegarty lived many lives: a journalist, an accomplished book collector, a passionate father and for years a resourceful guide to locals who walked into the Alameda Journal newspaper’s offices, looking for help.”

Paid for by Consumer Attorneys of California Initiative Defense Political Action Committee:

Who’s behind attacks on justice in California? Meet the Civil Justice Association of California: a front group for multibillion-dollar, multinational corporations who are dead set on restricting consumers’ ability to fight back against injustice. These powerful corporations are anything but “a trusted source of expertise in legal reform and advocacy” - they’re simply out to buy more power by hiding behind CJAC. These massive corporations already have outsized power and influence in California politics. They shouldn’t be allowed to buy more. Learn More. Paid for by Consumer Attorneys of California Initiative Defense Political Action Committee.

 

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

Follow us on Twitter

Jeremy B. White @JeremyBWhite

POLITICO California @politicoca

 

Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family

Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook

View all our political and policy newsletters

Follow us

Follow us on Facebook Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Instagram Listen on Apple Podcast
 

To change your alert settings, please log in at https://www.politico.com/_login?base=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com/settings

This email was sent to by: POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

Please click here and follow the steps to .

More emails from POLITICO California Playbook

Nov 11,2021 02:12 pm - Thursday

Brace yourselves. The maps are coming.