So much for a Newsom-Elder rematch?

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Wednesday Jan 05,2022 02:13 pm

Jan 05, 2022

Presented by California Environmental Justice Alliance

THE BUZZ — ELDER MAKES HIS EXIT: The Republican who received by far the most votes to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom has bowed out of a 2022 rematch. Is that good or bad news for Newsom?

Libertarian talk show host Larry Elder announced he is not running for governor this year, despite eclipsing his Republican competitors in the recall race. He’s instead decided to launch a political action committee focused on Congress. That immediately resets the nascent field of Republicans seeking once again to oust Newsom, just over a year after Newsom replicated his 2018 landslide by resoundingly repudiating the recall.

Republican conservative radio show host Larry Elder speaks at a rally for the California gubernatorial recall election on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021, in Monterey Park, Calif.

Republican conservative radio show host Larry Elder speaks at a rally for the California gubernatorial recall election on Monday, Sept. 13, 2021, in Monterey Park, Calif. | AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu

So how to assess the effects of Elder leaving? On one hand, there can be no doubt he was the preferred candidate of conservatives. Elder received some 3 million votes more than the next Republican recall candidate, outpaced his rivals in fundraising and immediately vaulted to the top of the field by electrifying the Republican base.

On the other hand, Elder’s ascension was arguably the biggest break Newsom caught in the whole campaign. An anti-abortion, pro-Trump frontrunner whose ideal minimum wage was $0 was the ideal foil for Newsom, allowing him to frame the recall as an outgrowth of Trump-aligned extremism. And while Republicans may have favored Elder, the electorate overall didn’t make it particularly close: Elder received 600,000 votes fewer than Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger did in the 2003 recall, an election that saw millions fewer voters.

To be clear: With or without Elder in the field, Newsom is the overwhelming favorite going into this election. The recall margin affirmed that the Democratic incumbent retains strong support in a broadly blue state; he has at least $25 million in his reelection account. California’s more competitive races will be for attorney general, House seats and some high-profile ballot measures.

But Elder’s absence creates a test for Republicans. With the lightning rod gone, can conservatives and centrists be convinced to coalesce around someone like former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, who finished far behind Elder but is viewed by establishment types as a higher-probability bet in a Democratic bastion (Faulconer is still considering whether to run again)? Or will another, further right contender emerge?

Rebounding Newsom poll numbers aside, California continues to struggle with serious and enduring issues like homelessness, cost of living and wildfires. Which Republican will make the most convincing case for a new direction? And what ripples will the standard-bearer cause down-ballot? These are all questions with which the CAGOP will have to grapple.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. Things are already starting to move in the Legislature: Lawmakers on Tuesday advanced holdover legislation from last year, while Sen. Scott Wiener pulled the plug on a bill barring surgery on intersex infants that has set LGBTQ groups against the medical lobby. The newly amended bill now seeks to regulate vending machines.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit jwhite@politico.com or follow me on Twitter @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “When you have the votes to take out the Speaker, you don’t run around telling rumors that you have the votes to take out the Speaker. You actually do it.” Outgoing Assemblymember Lorena Gonzalez takes a swipe at the rivals of her ally, Speaker Anthony Rendon, via CalMatters’ Emily Hoeven.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Columnist @JRubinBlogger on another vice presidential staffer leaving: “when staff bails like this you need a new chief of staff”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from California Environmental Justice Alliance:

Governor Newsom: Commit to California’s 2022 Clean Energy Resolutions - Let’s ring in the New Year with healthier, more resilient communities and clean, affordable energy for all. Read the full list of Clean Energy Resolutions for 2022 from a dozen environmental justice, equity, clean energy and climate organizations.

TOP TALKERS

ELECTION FRAUD UNFOUNDED — No evidence that man with trove of California recall ballots aimed to commit election fraud, investigators say, by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: California was in the closing weeks of the recall campaign when reports emerged last August that Torrance police found a man with roughly 300 unopened recall ballots. Conservative figures immediately seized on the news as evidence of a conspiracy to rig the election in Newsom’s favor.

— Governors demand schools stay open but districts may lack enough teachers, by POLITICO’s Juan Perez, Madina Touré and Susannah Luthi: California kept schools closed longer than any other state in the first phase of the pandemic, but now the political winds are clear: students will keep coming to class regardless of Omicron. … As California schools resume this week and next, districts are left to weigh a number of Option B's as they grapple with a reduced staff.

TESTING TROUBLE — “Newsom promised 6 million COVID tests for students. Only half have arrived, ” by the LA Times’ Mackenzie Mays and Melody Gutierrez: “Gov. Gavin Newsom promised that schools would receive at-home COVID-19 tests in time for students to safely return to campuses after winter break, as health officials warned of a surge in cases over the holidays. But as many school districts resumed classes on Monday, they did so without having received a single test from the state.”

— “Federal jury trials suspended in L.A. amid rapid COVID spread ,” by the LATimes’ Michael Finnegan: “Federal jury trials in Los Angeles, Santa Ana and Riverside have been suspended for at least three weeks due to the latest surge in COVID-19 cases.”

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CAMPAIGN MODE

DEM-ON-DEM DODGED — “Leyva won't seek reelection, averting clash with Rubio,” by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: New boundaries released by California's redistricting commission put state Sens. Connie Leyva and Susan Rubio in the same district and on a 2022 collision course. That conjured a repeat of the bruising 2018 campaign in which Rubio, a business-friendly Democrat, prevailed over labor-backed Democrat Mike Eng, with outside groups pouring in more than $5 million. Leyva has already said she intends to run for state superintendent of public instruction in 2026, when incumbent Tony Thurmond would be out of office if he wins a second term this year.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — AD-64 CONTENDER: Downey Mayor Blanca Pacheco is running for the solidly Democratic Assembly seat that Assemblymember Cristina Garcia is vacating to run for Congress. Pacheco launches with endorsements in hand from L.A. Supervisor Janice Hahn and La Habra Mayor Jose Medrano.

SD-16 — “Soria Explores Leaving Fresno City Council to Run for State Senate,” by GV Wire’s David Taub.

AD-10 — Sacramento City Council member Eric Guerra announced he is shifting his focus from state Senate to Assembly, taking aim at the new AD-10 district currently occupied by Assemblymember Jim Cooper, who has been exploring a Sacramento sheriff run.

ARTSY — Former Los Angeles Unified Superintendent Austin Beutner has dropped $100,000 on his ballot initiative to fund arts education, and he also drew a $1 million assist from Steve and Connie Ballmer.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

GUN-FUSION: Weeks after Newsom dramatically announced via a Saturday night tweet that he would seek legislation letting Californians sue gun manufacturers — appropriating the concept behind Texas’s abortion bounty law — Assembly members held a presser on Tuesday announcing a bill to do that. But Assemblymember Phil Ting said this was not Newsom’s bill and that he has been working on the measure since last summer. It “gets at the spirit of what the governor was asking,” Ting said, but the administration was examining “different legislative proposals.”

It turns out that Assemblymember Mike Gipson — who said in December he was “stepping up to the plate and answering the call of the Governor,” and who signed on as a co-author of the Ting’s bill — is working with Newsom’s office on a separate but complementary bill that more closely hews to what the governor wants, which is a private right of action against makers of outlawed banned ghost guns and assault weapons. A Newsom spokesperson said the administration is “is working closely with the legislature on a package of gun measures.”

WATER WARNING — “ California's water conservation dips as rain returns,” by POLITICO’s Debra Kahn: Regulators approved rules Tuesday that would prohibit wasteful practices, including washing a car without an automatic shut-off nozzle, washing sidewalks with potable water, and watering lawns with potable water to the point of causing runoff. The ban would last for up to a year and mirrors temporary rules put in place during the last drought.

— “ San Francisco OKs First-in-Nation Sick Pay for Domestic Workers,” by Bloomberg’s Joyce E. Cutler: “The proposed pay-or-play system passed 11 to 0 and would require employers to provide one hour of paid sick leave for every 30 hours worked or pay into the city fund.”

WATCHDOG WALKS AWAY — “California’s longest serving auditor pulled no punches. Who will replace her? ” by the LA Times’ Melody Gutierrez: “Howle’s 21-year run makes her the longest-serving auditor in state history. Her willingness to aggressively dig into details; to publish reports regardless of the political implications; and to require proof, not promises, that agencies have made recommended changes earned her bipartisan praise rarely found in the state Capitol.”

— “ Ten years since Vallejo police’s deadliest year, $12.6 million has been paid to settle civil rights lawsuits,” by the Vallejo Sun’s Scott Morris: “Since then, the department has not had that many shootings in a single year, but it has consistently had the highest rate of police shootings in the region, except in 2021, the only year in the last decade when there have been no shootings involving Vallejo police officers.”

RECYCLING RUMBLE — “ California is sitting on $350 million in unclaimed bottle deposit funds, thanks to ‘recycling deserts,’” by the SF Chronicle’s Dustin Gardiner: “The situation has prompted a fierce debate at the state Capitol about how to save the bottle program, which was the largest program of its kind in the U.S. when it was created in 1986.”

— “ With Sexually Transmitted Infections Off the Charts, California Pushes At-Home Tests,” by Kaiser Health News’ Rachel Bluth.

A message from California Environmental Justice Alliance:

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

ASYLUM ODYSSEY — “'I Hope a Lawyer Will Answer': Asylum-Seekers Risk Deportation in Expedited Process,” by KQED’s Tyche Hendricks: “The aim of the so-called ‘dedicated docket’ is to resolve asylum cases more quickly, with a loose goal of a judge issuing a decision within 300 days of the initial court appearance. It’s an effort to prevent such cases from slipping into an immigration court backlog that recently surpassed 1.5 million cases.”

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— “Facebook Hosted Surge of Misinformation and Insurrection Threats in Months Leading Up to Jan. 6 Attack, Records Show,” via a team from ProPublica and WaPo: “The barrage — averaging at least 10,000 posts a day, a scale not reported previously — turned the groups into incubators for the baseless claims supporters of then-President Donald Trump voiced as they stormed the Capitol.”

— “A mistrial was declared for three counts in the Elizabeth Holmes trial,” by NYT’s Erin Woo: “The three hung counts were related to investments from three Theranos investors who testified that Ms. Holmes misled them.”

— “A Very American Question About Elizabeth Holmes and the Price of Success,” opines Bethany McLean in NYT: “If Ms. Holmes’s team had had a breakthrough right before Theranos’s technology was rolled out in Walgreens across the country and her devices worked, would anyone have cared about the initial set of lies?”

— “ Come the Metaverse, Can Privacy Exist?” by WSJ’s David Uberti: “In its current form, the internet relies on data collection that some critics liken to mass surveillance. Technology companies and researchers are beginning to wonder whether the metaverse will be any different.”

— “Google Fiber Staff Seek Union Vote and Direct Negotiations With Alphabet,” by Bloomberg’s Josh Eidelson.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

HOLLYWOODLAND

— “A lawsuit over Nirvana's 'Nevermind' baby album cover has been dismissed,” by NPR’s Deepa Shivaram.

MEDIA MATTERS

— Chris Megerian, an alum of the Capitol beat, is moving from the LA Times’ White House beat to covering the same for the Associated Press.

MIXTAPE

— “Sacramento libraries giving out 90,000 at-home COVID test kits. Here’s how to get one,” by the Sac Bee’s Michael McGough.

— “ Disciplinary hearings in fatal sinking of Marine amphibious vehicle begin,” by the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Andrew Dyer.

— “Millions of Californians know someone at risk of committing violence, UC Davis study finds,” by the Sac Bee’s Cathie Anderson.

— “An unusually tall avocado tree in San Francisco is bearing free fruit in more ways than one,” by the SF Chronicle’s Elena Kadvany.

BIRTHDAYS

Lynn Alice Schenk … Katie Lillie

A message from California Environmental Justice Alliance:

As we enter 2022, California is at a crossroads.

Our communities are reeling from COVID-19, and the climate crisis continues to shape our lives in new and frightening ways. High fossil fuel prices are adding to this pressure for many families, while air quality remains dangerous to breathe in many communities. Urgent action is needed.

Fortunately, creating healthier, more resilient communities and building an economy rooted in prosperity for all are inextricably linked by clean, affordable energy that is available to everyone.

That’s why a dozen environmental justice, equity, and climate organizations are asking Gov. Newsom to adopt these Clean Energy Resolutions:

Eliminate utility debt
Increase access to affordable, truly clean electricity
Invest in transmission
Install solar + storage on 1 million homes & community buildings
Reject fossil fuels
Retire California’s dirtiest fossil fuel power plants
Invest in increased climate resilience infrastructure

Read the full list here.

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