Slowly cresting the Omicron wave

By Jeremy B. White, Chris Ramirez and Graph Massara

THE BUZZ — PEAK OMICRON? Bit by bit, California’s coronavirus situation is starting to look less dire.

Our test positivity rate remains in the double digits thanks to the omnipresent Omicron variant — but the situation is gradually improving. After peaking at 23.1 percent last Wednesday, the rate has declined each day thereafter to dip to 20.9 percent on Wednesday. While hospitalization numbers are continuing to climb daily, testing intensive care units from the Bay to L.A., the rate of increase is diminishing.

Some caveats: Testing is an imperfect metric. Anyone who’s tried to get a coronavirus test lately can affirm that not every case is finding its way into state data. The reported positivity rate is still massive and a more than sevenfold increase from its single-digit status a month ago today, before infections began their upward march. The recent decrease may also fail to capture a spike from MLK weekend gatherings.

And these improvements notwithstanding, the coronavirus will still loom over the Legislature. Organized labor has unified behind a push to reinstate two weeks of paid Covid sick leave, which Gov. Gavin Newsom has also embraced. Newsom led his budget reveal by seeking $1.4 billion in emergency budget aid to help California’s health care system weather this surge, part of a $2.7 billion plan that also seeks to expand inoculations.

A person receives a Covid vaccine in Los Angeles. | Mario Tama/Getty Images

THE V-WORD: Speaking of vaccines: California’s approach to mandating shots remains one of the great to-be-determined variables for this legislative year. A half-dozen lawmakers announced on Wednesday that they were forming a vaccine working group to craft “evidence-based policies to strengthen our ability to stop the spread of COVID and other diseases, while battling misinformation.” That was all the detail they were willing to provide. But offices and classrooms are the likely arenas for action.

For workplaces, that could mean another attempt at a vaccine requirement. An effort to impose such a rule coalesced late last year but withered in the waning days of the legislative session. The subsequent Omicron outburst has given proponents good reason to try again. The U.S. Supreme Court discarding the Biden administration’s mandate has the Sac Bee’s editorial board and others calling on Newsom to fully embrace the national coronavirus leadership role he has long claimed to occupy.

For schools, that could mean narrowing down the personal belief exemption in a not-yet-operative K-12 student coronavirus vaccine mandate. Because that educational imperative came from a Newsom executive order and not the Legislature, it isn’t covered by a 2019 law tightening exemptions from school vaccine requirements. No one has any illusions it would be easy. The last rounds launched vitriolic (and occasionally bloody) policy battles. And vaccine politics have only intensified since, with vaccination status becoming a potent proxy during the pandemic for a person’s political beliefs. Brace yourselves for more of that.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Thursday morning. This morning, Legislative Women’s Caucus members will mark the 49th anniversary of Roe v. Wade by spotlighting their efforts to ensure California remains a national leader for reproductive rights.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit jwhite@politico.com or follow me on Twitter @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “She's going to be my running mate.” President Joe Biden says he’ll stick with Vice President Kamala Harris for 2024.

TWEET OF THE DAY: GOP @RepDarrellIssa reacts to Biden’s speech asserting he has “overperformed” expectations: “Biden should definitely keep telling the American people they just don't understand how great he's doing.”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

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FILET-O-FISH — “After rain burst, California salmon reclaim old spawning grounds,” by Reutters’ Nathan Frandino: “The rain could easily be a mere pause in the state's epic, 20-year drought, which has complicated efforts by water officials to keep fish, farms and growing cities supplied. Experts say the state needs several wet years in a row to replenish reservoirs.”

GAME PLAN — “In-depth look at A’s Oakland ballpark plan,” by the SF Chronicle staff: “The city and A’s must also finish negotiating a final development agreement, and a final vote on the project could come later in 2022. Meanwhile, the A’s continue to weigh relocating to Las Vegas.”

NEW RULES — “USC fraternity parties can return, but with guards near bedrooms to prevent sexual assaults,” by the LA Times’ Colleen Shalby: “USC officials said they will be watching every step and are hiring a ‘compliance coordinator’ to ensure all rules are followed. Weekly, an event review committee and chapter leaders will review ‘risk management plans, security implementation.’ Security at events will be bolstered.”

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — CONTROLLER CASH: Fundraising totals are rolling in for a state controller race that could be California’s most competitive statewide contest. Republican Lanhee Chen, one of the CAGOP’s more promising prospects, is announcing a $1.5 million haul between July and the end of last year. Democratic Board of Equalization Member Malia Cohen reported some $1 million raised since last spring. Democratic Monterey Park Mayor Yvonne Yiu has collected about $225,000 and kicked in $1.5 million herself. Democratic L.A. Controller Ron Galperin just launched his bid, so a direct comparison is tougher there.

LIVE ON AIR — “Surveillance Showdown: Mayor Breed, Supervisors Clash over SF Police Access to Cameras,” by the SF Standard’s Michael Barba: “The measure would allow police to temporarily monitor live camera networks during critical events including looting, rioting, organized thefts, mass assaults and terrorist acts. Live surveillance could also take place in so-called ‘Public Safety Crisis Areas’ such as open-air drug markets and neighborhoods that see a spike in violent crime over a two-week period.”

— “California’s city councils are getting more diverse. This law made that happen, ” by the Washington Post’s Loren Collingwood and Sean Long: “A great deal of political science literature shows that at-large voting dilutes minority votes, making it less likely that they will be represented on the council. If a plaintiff can prove that different racial groups’ voters prefer different candidates — for instance, if Latinos prefer one candidate while Whites/Anglos prefer another — then the CVRA requires that city to elect city council members by district instead.”

CHA-CHING — McCarthy raises $9.5M at major Washington fundraiser, by POLITICO’s Alex Isenstadt: The fundraiser shows how Republican donors are mobilizing ahead of this year’s midterm elections. With House Democrats holding a slim majority and confronting an increasingly daunting political environment, Republicans are widely regarded as the favorites to win control of the chamber.

RECALLS — “ S.F. Dems allege campaign violations by Boudin recall committee,” by the SF Chronicle’s Megan Cassidy: “State law requires that any paid spokesperson that appears in campaign ads be identified as such, “in highly visible font.” However, the recall committee featured their own spokesperson, Andrea Shorter, in its campaign mailings without disclosing that she was on their payroll, the complaint alleges.”

LEADERSHIFT — State Sen. Mike McGuire will become Senate majority leader, taking over from outgoing Sen. Bob Hertzberg, Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins announced on Wednesday. Sen. Susan Eggman slid into McGuire’s former spot as assistant majority leader.

— “California can’t afford a costly experiment in health care,” by Rep. Marie Waldon (R-Escondido) for CalMatters: “The Democrats’ funding bill, Assembly Constitutional Amendment 11, is estimated to raise taxes by a whopping $163 billion, including tax hikes on small businesses and middle-class workers. And because ACA 11 creates an exemption from Prop. 13’s requirement that new taxes pass with a two-thirds vote in the Legislature, if this new scheme runs short on money, Democrats will have a blank check to increase taxes with a simple majority vote.”

DON’T TREAD ON ME — “ Petition opposing Stanford’s COVID-19 booster mandate draws 1,700 signatures,” by the LA Times’ Hayley Smith: “The student who created the Stanford petition said Wednesday that he has received the COVID-19 vaccine but has not yet received a booster shot. His opposition was not to the shots themselves, but to what he described as the university’s ‘paternalistic decision.’”

CA VS AK — Bonta leads blue-state AGs in challenge to Arkansas transgender health care law, by POLITICO’s Graph Massara: “In California, our laws seek to promote access to healthcare, not restrict it,” said California Attorney General Rob Bonta in a statement Wednesday.

— “LA Port Truckers Seek to Unionize in New Gig Work Showdown,” by Bloomberg’s Josh Eidelson: “In a Wednesday filing with the National Labor Relations Board, the Teamsters union requested a unionization election be held among around 250 drivers who work for the logistics company XPO Logistics Inc.”

— “S.F. opioid epidemic: Fewer people died of overdoses in 2021 than 2020, but crisis still unprecedented,” by the SF Chronicle’s Mallory Moench and Yoohyun Jung: “The unfolding crisis — driven by a rise in the powerful opioid fentanyl — pushed Mayor London Breed to declare an emergency last month in the Tenderloin, the hardest-hit neighborhood. The sharp rise of overdose deaths, leading to the highest per-capita death rate in California and one of the highest among major U.S. metro areas, has brought national attention and intense pressure on elected officials.”

DEEP DIVE — Bonta launches civil rights probe of Santa Clara County sheriff's department, by POLITICO’s Susannah Luthi: “Bonta said his probe will dive into the overall operations of the department to pick out systemic issues, looking at the use of force on inmates, whether the office withheld ‘appropriate treatment’ including for mental illness, and how oversight functioned within the Santa Clara County jail.”

SCHOOL’S OUT — “ Omicron surge worsens teacher shortage, closing more California schools to COVID,” by CalMatters’ Joe Hong: “The good news is that public health experts across California expect the omicron surge to be over by March. But the consequences of the highly transmissible variant and the acute school staffing crisis it has caused could long outlast the spike in case numbers. The teacher shortages and unprecedented absenteeism are disrupting learning, extending the long-term academic fallout of COVID-19.”

PLAY BALL — “UC Davis students rebel against fees for sports. As costs rise, should they bankroll athletics?” by the Sac Bee’s Ryan Sabalow and Joe Davidson: “The baseball scandal and the prospect of student athletes making money in endorsement deals are among the reasons why Calvin Wong, a fourth-year history major, is spearheading the effort to rescind the fees. Wong said that even if the referendum isn’t successful, it will start a needed conversation on campus about whether students should subsidize sports.”

BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT — “One year into his presidency, Biden’s accomplishments have been short-changed,” opines the LA Times’ Kurt Bardella: “I am not suggesting that the mainstream media adopt the propaganda-level machinations of the GOP-media sphere. But I do think media institutions have huge influence in shaping public perception and how that perception is weaponized by the anti-democratic forces in America.”

— “Can a former California dairy farmer help Trump slay Facebook and Twitter?” opines the SF Examiner’s Gil Duran: “A botched launch could test Nunes’ relationship with his new boss, who is not known for his loyalty to employees. It could also put Trump’s app further behind in the race for tech dominance. Forget Facebook and Twitter — the Trump app must first overcome competition from other struggling right-wing platforms like Gab, Gettr and Parler.”

ROAD TRIP — “Vice President Kamala Harris to visit San Bernardino on Friday,” by the Sun’s Jeff Horseman and Beau Yarbrough.

MAKE IT RAIN — “‘It’s All Just Wild’: Tech Start-Ups Reach a New Peak of Froth,” by the New York Times’ Erin Griffith: “The money hit a fever pitch in the final months of 2021 as investors chased a limited pool of start-ups and as tech stocks like Apple, which topped a valuation of $3 trillion, reached new heights.”

— “Ad lobby launches campaign to defend targeted ads amid D.C. crackdown,” by Axios’ Sara Fischer and Ashley Gold: “Democrats on Tuesday introduced a new bill, called “The Banning Surveillance Advertising Act,” that would ‘prohibit targeted advertising by advertising facilitators and advertisers, and for other purposes.’”

— “ Tesla Rumor Mill Misfires in Ways That Exasperate Even Elon Musk,” by Bloomberg’s Dana Hull.

— “Disney rejiggers streaming leadership, names new streaming and Hulu presidents,” by the LA Times’ Ryan Faughnder: “Earley’s appointment was just one of several announcements Disney made to establish new streaming leadership roles as Chief Executive Bob Chapek tries to accelerate the growth of its direct-to-consumer segment, which is being closely watched by Wall Street and the entertainment industry.”

— Adam Ashton is moving up from his current role as the Sac Bee’s Capitol Bureau chief to become the paper’s assistant managing editor leading metro news.

HUNGER STRIKE — “Protest at Santa Rita Jail over 'inedible' food and rising commissary prices,” by KTVU’s Lisa Fernandez.

— “ Suspect in killing of Brianna Kupfer arrested in Pasadena,” by the LA Times’ Nathan Solis.

REMEMBRANCE — “‘She Meant Something’: Vigil Held for Teen Found Dead on 110 Freeway,” by NBC Los Angeles’ Beverly White.

MONEY MOVES — “ Fremont seeking $40 million grant to house homeless people in converted motel,” by the Mercury News’ Joseph Geha.

— “Monte Sereno lawmaker claims illegal voting charge part of harassment campaign,” by the San Jose Spotlight’s Eli Wolfe.

WHINE AND DINE — “New report rings a desperate alarm for wine: Attract younger drinkers, or sales will fall off ‘a cliff,’” by the SF Chronicle’s Jess Lander.

— “California state agency weighs changes to pre-employment drug test appeal policy,” by the Sac Bee’s Andrew Sheeler.

— Grace Papish is leaving Newsom's communications office to join former Nogales mayor and Obama administration official Marco Lopez's Arizona gubernatorial campaign.

— Dagny Ellenberg, Kendall Klingler and Rebecca Nicholas have been promoted to partners at Fiona Hutton & Associates.

— Adam Sege is now senior analyst at public sector management consulting firm Harvey M. Rose Associates. He most recently was deputy comms director for Everytown for Gun Safety.

— “Marty Roberts of beloved L.A. lounge act Marty & Elayne dies at 89,” by the LA Times’ RJ Smith.”

— “ Renowned Orange County historian and conservationist Ilse Byrnes dies at 94,” by the LA Times’ Meghann M. Cuniff.

Bill Maher … Abby Greensfelder

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