A brutal new poll for Boudin

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Thursday Mar 17,2022 01:10 pm

Mar 17, 2022

By Jeremy B. White, Chris Ramirez, Juhi Doshi and Graph Massara

THE BUZZ — BOUDIN IN TROUBLE: It’s not news that San Francisco’s progressive district attorney faces political peril, with a June recall vote approaching.

But on Wednesday, recall proponents released polling that suggests why they’re feeling bullish: a poll they commissioned found 68 percent of voters would unseat DA Chesa Boudin, versus 32 percent who would keep him.

A critical caveat: We try to be judicious with internal polling, since those surveys tend to bolster the narrative of whoever’s funding them. But you’d need a boulder of salt to offset the two-to-one margin this poll uncovers. And for what it’s worth, the poll led with an up-or-down “if the election were held today, would you vote yes to approve or no to reject” question before segueing into some message-testing that could have primed voters to a particular conclusion.

A Boudin representative dismissed the poll as “inaccurate and not consistent with other surveys in this race” and asserted the campaign has “consistently lied to voters.” Spokesperson Julie Edwards pointed to a February survey from veteran pollster David Binder finding an even, 44-44 Boudin split on San Francisco’s east side. That’s better for Boudin than the latest poll but short of a ringing endorsement, particularly given that the city’s eastern half tends to be more progressive than the wealthier west side. Nevertheless, Edwards said, polls aren’t votes: “If polls ten weeks out counted, Larry Elder would be governor of California,” she said in a statement.

That’s true enough. It was less than three years ago that San Francisco voters elevated Boudin over establishment pick Suzy Loftus, embracing a progressive vision of criminal justice. They may well stand behind that choice. But concerns about crime have risen markedly since 2019, in San Francisco as throughout California, and Boudin’s deep-pocketed opponents are channeling those fears — even if some of the issues they fault Boudin for are beyond his control.

Chesa Boudin.

Chesa Boudin. | Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Pessimism about Boudin’s prospects has begun to pervade San Francisco’s political class. Campaign operatives’ takes don’t count as votes any more than polls do, but people who may have given Boudin an even shot a few months ago are increasingly seeing an uphill battle — particularly after San Franciscans overwhelmingly recalled a trio of school board members last month. Those efforts have completely different impetuses, and Boudin has significantly more financial support than did the ousted board members, but an anti-incumbent restiveness links the two. And in another sign of the times, critics working to qualify a recall of Los Angeles District Attorney George Gascón announced on Wednesday that they’d raised $1.7 million this year to get to $3.5 million total.

WHITHER BREED? One X-factor for Boudin: whether and when San Francisco Mayor London Breed weighs in. The mayor has telegraphed her stance by declining to take up many chances to oppose the recall. But a formal endorsement could offer Boudin some hope.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Thursday morning. California’s contra-Texas policymaking continues today as lawmakers announce legislation aimed at aiding transgender kids and their parents targeted by the Lone Star State. And a group of Assembly Democrats are staking a claim on offering Californians relief from gas prices, proposing minimum $400 per person rebates after Gov. Gavin Newsom proposed a similar idea in his State of the State speech.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit jwhite@politico.com or follow me on Twitter @jeremybwhite.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “People have had it. They’re exhausted. They’re sick and tired of hearing people like me on programs like this identifying the problem but not doing anything substantive to address it … They’re wondering where the heck all their tax dollars are going and what happened to this state.” Gov. Gavin Newsom tells KQED that voters are out of patience on homelessness.

BONUS QOTD: “We’re hoping to see a vote on the Senate floor soon, and the president has confidence in Mayor Garcetti and believes he’ll be an excellent representative in India.” White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki on L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti’s ambassadorship confirmation.

TWEET OF THE DAY: @RepJudyChu marks a grim anniversary: “The murders of 8 people, including 6 Asian women, 1 year ago today shocked our nation awake to the problem of anti-Asian violence. I continue to mourn those victims and the over 11,000 others. We must unite to reject bigotry & xenophobia in order to #StopAsianHate”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

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Top Talkers

DIVIDED, WE FALL — “‘We’re at war’: Opponents reveal embattled California union president’s past troubles,” by the Sac Bee’s Wes Venteicher: “The dramatic events leading to the court order have raised the stakes for questions about [Richard Lois Brown’s] leadership position and determining the way forward for the influential organization that represents 100,000 state employees and oversees a $47 million budget.”

NOT LIKE THE MOVIES — “The ex-Hollywood filmmaker bankrolling a far-right political revolt in rural California, ” by the LA Times’ Jessica Garrison: “[Reverge Anselmo] has poured more than $550,000 into local Shasta County races since 2020, a record for a single individual, according to county officials.”

IN THEIR VOICES — “They’ve endured anti-Asian bigotry. They’re confronting it in different ways, ” by the SF Chronicle’s Deepa Fernandes: “One year after the spa attacks, four Bay Area women of Asian descent spoke with The Chronicle about their experiences with bigotry here and the various paths they’ve followed to fight it.”

CAMPAIGN MODE

OC GUN: Former Assemblymember Scott Baugh has landed a spot in House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s “Young Guns” program as Baugh seeks to unseat Rep. Katie Porter.

— “Tina McKinnor for Assembly,” editorial by the LA Times’ Editorial Board.

MEET AND GREET — “ Who Wants to Run OC? Here Are the Candidates for June 2022 After Most Deadlines Pass,” by the Voice of OC’s Nick Gerda: “While the candidacy deadline has now passed for most seats, the deadline was extended to 5 p.m. Wednesday in a handful of races because incumbents aren’t running.”

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

TIME OUT — “A’s Howard Terminal ballpark faces ‘major setback’ after key state panel doesn’t endorse changes at the site,” by the SF Chronicle’s Sarah Ravani: “The committee’s decision is not final. Its vote is a recommendation to the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission, a state agency that protects the bay. BCDC’s approval is needed for the A’s to build at Howard Terminal.”

CLIMATE CRISIS CONFLICT — “California’s Climate Reputation Tarnished by Inaction and Oil Money, ” by Inside Climate News’ Liza Gross: “California legislators haven’t enacted significant climate legislation since 2018, she said, when they passed a law requiring 100 percent of retail sale of electricity to come from renewable energy and zero-carbon sources by 2045.”

SO HERE’S THE STORY … —“ Why did Valley Dems Skip Vote on Gas Tax Suspension?” by GV Wire’s David Taub: “The vote on Monday — 40-18 — failed along party lines.”

BIGGEST BANG FOR OUR BUCK — “Are S.F. residents getting their money’s worth from police? ” by the SF Chronicle’s Joshua Sharpe: “City police also disproportionately arrest Black residents at a higher rate than the other cities and ‘flagrantly’ fail to keep comprehensive arrest data.”

BLANK SPACE — “‘We’re screwed’: L.A. County empties troubled juvenile hall ahead of state board’s inspection, ” by the LA Times’ James Queally: “Probation officials gave employees little to no warning of the move and had insufficient staff on hand to conduct the transfers safely, according to an email reviewed by The Times and two employees who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to talk to the media.”

WHAT COMES NEXT … — “ ‘Like Quicksand’: Tenderloin Residents Worry that Emergency Order is Just Shifting Problems Around,” by the SF Standard’s David Sjostedt: “The expiration of the current declaration, which is largely a legal formality according to the mayor’s office, signifies a transition to more permanent staffing at a service respite facility called the linkage center—the centerpiece of the mayor’s plan.”

NO BACKSIES — “What’s at stake for downtown San Francisco, as companies compel people back into offices — for real, this time,” by the SF Chronicle’s Roland Li: “Signs of life have improved modestly, but the tech industry’s fondness of remote work and lingering health restrictions mean the comeback continues to lag other cities.”

COMING CLEAN — “Why the city of Fresno kept silent about losing $600,000 to a phishing scam,” by the LA Times’ Lila Seidman: “[Fresno Mayor Jerry Dyer] said several city officials were told the fraud involved an out-of-country bank account. He said it was only after speaking to an FBI agent the night before the conference that he learned the accounts are in the United States.”

GASSED UP — “All California taxpayers would get $400 rebates to defray gas costs under new proposal, ” by the LA Times’ Phil Willon and John Myers: “Newsom administration officials have said that several ideas are under consideration, although suspending or reducing the state gas tax does not seem likely.”

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

MAKE IT RAIN — “California naval bases, beaches, commuter rails get part of $760 million in new federal earmarks,” by the LA Times’ Jennifer Haberkorn: “The biggest projects in the state’s $766-million pot involve military construction at naval bases in Coronado and Ventura County requested by Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.).”

WWYD … “What If Joe Biden Paid You to Get Out of Your Car?” by Curbed’s Alissa Walker: “A federal buyback program for gas-guzzlers would be just one piece of the urgent, necessary work of decentering automobiles from American life — a just transition away from our cars — but it’s a surprisingly achievable one.”

— “Capitol riot suspect from California says he can’t get fair trial because of Biden voters, ” by the Sac Bee’s Sam Stanton.

SILICON VALLEYLAND

BLOCKED AND REPORTED — “Social platforms’ bans muffle Russian state media propaganda,” by the WaPo’s Elizabeth Dwoskin, Jeremy B. Merrill and Gerrit De Vynck: “The situation underscores how powerful companies like YouTube, Facebook and TikTok have the ability to turn the dials of their content-recommendation algorithms to instantly shape the nature of information millions of people consume about a global war.”

THERE’S AN APP FOR THAT — “Apple and Google app stores remain available in Russia. Activists and officials say that’s a good thing, ” by the WaPo’s Joseph Menn: “The three California companies provide ordinary Russians with the means to find independent news sources and to connect to activists and nonprofit organizations opposed to the war in Ukraine.”

CANNABIS COUNTRY

FALSE HOPE — “Oakland Cannabis Sellers, Once Full of Hope, Face a Harsh Reality,” by the NYT’s Michael Corkery: “Interviews with more than 30 cannabis business owners, investors and regulators in California, an early adopter of equity licenses, show how the hope of fixing historical wrongs is being challenged by the reality of an industry facing troubled business conditions, including issues like high taxes and volatile sales.”

MIXTAPE

— “Man who started fire in homeless encampment gets mental health treatment, no prison time,” by the LA Times’ James Queally.

— “LA County approves $3.8 million settlement over fatal struggle with deputies,” by the LA Daily News.

— “ Silicon Valley powers to biggest year ever for commercial property deals,” by the Mercury News’ George Avalos.

— “The story behind the Bay Area’s ‘Sugar Town’ and that iconic brightly lit sign, ” by the SFGATE’s Madeline Wells.

— “Commentary: How Frank Gehry’s new design for Colburn concert hall could transform arts in L.A.,” by the LA Times’ Mark Swed.

— “Wait, Why is the Airport Paying for Mayor Breed’s Trip to Europe?” by the SF Standard’s Sarah Wright.

— “ Here’s when the Golden Gate Bridge suicide barrier may finally be completed, as people keep jumping every month,” by the SF Chronicle’s Rachel Swan.

IN MEMORIAM

— “Former Rep. Vic Fazio, Sacramento’s voice in Congress for 20 years, dies at 79,” by the Sac Bee’s Dale Kasler and David Lightfoot.

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