A journey through California’s battlegrounds

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Monday Apr 11,2022 01:22 pm

Apr 11, 2022

By Jeremy B. White, Lara Korte, Chris Ramirez and Juhi Doshi

Presented by Californians for Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support

THE BUZZ: Want a portrait of California’s most competitive state legislative races? Let’s paint by the numbers.

The California Secretary of State’s office released voter registration data last week for newly drawn districts. The data delineates which seats now fall in the flippable zone or in the overlapping defensive priority belt. Don’t count on the Democratic supermajority dissipating this year, thanks to the party’s structural advantages and money edge. But a conservative wave year could help Republicans make inroads, and there are plenty of contested districts to track.

We’re not getting into the same-party standoffs , though that’s where plenty of the money and action will be, or enumerating every candidate in these races;the full list is here. Let’s dive in:

— SENATE: There are a few open or Republican-controlled seats where relatively narrow margins have created openings for Democrats. That includes the vacant SD-4 (R+3), where contenders include former Rep. George Radanovich; the open SD-6 (R+0.6), where GOP former Assemblymember Roger Niello could match up with Democratic school board member Paula Villescaz; SD-36 (R+2), where GOP Assemblymember Janet Nguyen is hoping to return to the state Senate; SD-38 (D+6.5), which encompasses some of outgoing GOP state Sen. Pat Bates’ current district but is significantly bluer; and the evenly split SD-40, where Democrat Joseph Rocha is looking to unseat GOP Sen. Brian Jones.

Don’t sleep on the Central Valley, where outcomes often skew more conservative than the raw registration numbers would suggest. After moving so she could run in the newly drawn SD-16 (D+13) rather than collide with Sen. Anna Caballero in SD-14, Sen. Melissa Hurtado faces competition from fellow Democrats Bryan Osorio and Nicole Parra and Republican farmer David Shepard.

— ASSEMBLY: Incumbents of both parties could see stiff competition. In the D+5 new AD-7, Democratic Assemblymember Ken Cooley seeks to fend off Republican chief of staff Josh Hoover; on the other end of the state, Democrat Brian Maienschein will seek to defend his D+6 district (AD-76) from Republicans June Cutter and Kristie Bruce-Lane. GOP Assemblymembers Devon Mathis (AD-33) and Laurie Davies (AD-74) have seen their seats tighten from majority Republican to even registration. It could be an uphill fight for GOP Assemblymember Susan Valladares who flipped a D+4 seat last cycle but is now defending a D+13 district.

Open seats also beckon. The new Riverside-anchored AD-63’s four-point Republican edge could be slim enough to put it in play for Democrats. The D+8 new AD-22 looks promising for Democrats — with Chad Condit looking to continue the family dynasty — but we’ll reiterate that Central Valley margins can be tighter than they appear. In battleground Orange County, Democrat Diedre Thu-Ha Nguyen will vie with five Republicans for the D+4 AD-70 after falling short in 2020 despite a $1.5 million investment from the California Democratic Party.

Speaking of party priorities, some formerly top-tier members now find themselves in much safer seats. Democratic Assemblymembers Cottie Petrie-Norris, Sabrina Cervantes and Tasha Boerner Horvath, who were all top party beneficiaries last cycle, saw their margins improve significantly. And Republican Assemblymember Phillip Chen is running unopposed in an R+7 seat after the parties poured more than $1.5 million into his district in 2020.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Monday morning. It’s quiet out there: The governor is on vacation and state lawmakers are back in their districts for recess — or possibly in Iceland (more on that below).

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “My point to the progressives has been if we don’t get climate now, who knows what happens in the midterms, right? It’s an unknown. When are we going to get climate? This is our shot. So if you have to have some increase in something you don’t want on fossil fuel production, just in a little basis, but we get $500 billion of renewable energy that’s going to have an impact on the whole world and it’s going to help us rebuild America, do it. Take the deal.” Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) on cutting a climate deal, via POLITICO Deep Dive.

TWEET OF THE DAY: SF Supervisor @HillaryRonen lashes out at colleague @MattHaneySF for opposing the removal of redistricting commissioners: “Disgusted. You used to stand with us before you decided to abandon your District in your first term. Thought that wasn’t a betrayal because @honeymahogany was going to win. Not with these gerrymandered districts your standing up for. Truly disgusting.” (Followed by : “Matt, are you really starting to believe your own bull shit or is this just more bull shit?”)

WHERE’S GAVIN? On vacation with his family in Central and South America until April 12.

A message from Californians for Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support:

Our initiative is the only one on the November ballot that will generate hundreds of millions of dollars each year to fight homelessness and fund mental health and addiction treatment in California. Nearly half of the country has legalized online sports betting, proving states can do so safely and responsibly - and generate significant tax revenue. Add your name to support a permanent funding solution to address California’s homelessness crisis.

Top Talkers

RALLY AGAINST MADATES — “Opponents of vaccine requirements gather for ‘Defeat the Mandates’ rally in L.A.” by the LATimes’ Benjamin Oreskes: “ More than a thousand people opposed to vaccine mandates rallied in Grand Park in front of Los Angeles City Hall on Sunday, waving American flags and holding signs with such messages as “Defeat the Mandates” and “Reclaim Your Divinity.” One musical act drew cheers while performing a song with the chorus “this is a war on religion.””

'SQUITOS — “ In California, an army of genetically engineered mosquitoes awaits release. Will it backfire?” by the LA Times’ Melody Petersen: “Even scientists who see the potential of genetic engineering are uneasy about releasing the transgenic insects into neighborhoods because of how hard such trials are to control.”

SEE YOU NEXT DECADE — “ Film Academy Bans Will Smith From Oscars Ceremony for 10 Years,” by The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg: “He was expected to face suspension or expulsion, having violated the standards of conduct that the Academy implemented following the #MeToo movement.”

IMMIGRATION — “ A Ukrainian teen’s flight to safety takes detour to U.S. immigrant detention center,” by the San Diego Union Tribune’s Kate Morrissey via the LA Times: “Though family separation in 2018 became a buzzword for the Trump administration’s practices of separating parents from children and prosecuting the parents for having crossed the border, separations of relatives including grandparents, aunts, uncles and cousins from minors have gone on much longer and continue today.”

— “ Chula Vista church becomes a way station for Ukrainians seeking refuge in the U.S.,” by the LATimes’ John Wilkens: “Calvary Chapel in Chula Vista offers food and shelter for Ukrainian refugees arriving in the U.S. from Mexico.”

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CAMPAIGN MODE

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — SCHIFF STASH: Rep. Adam Schiff is piling up political chits, raising or giving some $565,000 for the DCCC and fellow Democratic candidates in Q1 while racking up $3.75 million in his campaign account — getting him to $18.2 million on hand — and another $175,000 in his leadership PAC. Since he’s comfortably ensconced in a safe Los Angeles seat, Schiff could channel some of that surplus to other Democrats — or a possible future Senate run.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — MAYORAL MOMENTUM: Big-city mayors are coalescing behind a circulating ballot initiative, bankrolled largely by Lyft, that would fund clean car infrastructure and wildfire prevention by raising income taxes on the wealthy. Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf, San Jose Mayor Sam Liccardo, Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia, San Francisco Mayor London Breed, Berkeley Mayor Jesse Arreguín and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti are all endorsing.

DISTRICT DRAMA PLAY-BY-PLAY — “ Task force members walk out as final redistricting meeting descends into chaos — controversial map adopted regardless,” by Mission Local’s Will Jarrett.

— “S.F. redistricting drama: political power grab or consequence of bad housing policy? ” by the SF Chronicle’s J.D. Morris: “The task force went too far in responding to those population changes, [District 3 Supervisor Aaron Peskin] said, noting that the group has considered changing the boundaries of District 5 so much that more than half of those who currently live there would be moved into a different district.”

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

TITANIC ENDEAVORS — Iceland junket warms relations between California lawmakers and energy players, by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: They will meet with both Icelandic public officials and private executives involved in the country’s energy industry.

— “San Francisco crime rates drastically shifted in the pandemic. These charts show what’s happening now,” by the SF Chronicle’s Susie Neilson.

— “California bill aims to remove homeless from river parkways,” by the AP’s Adam Beam: “State Assemblymember Kevin McCarty said many are afraid to do it after a federal appeals court ruled in 2018 that cities can’t enforce anti-camping laws if they don’t have enough available beds at homeless shelters to house everyone.”

— “CBP begins rapid processing of Ukrainians at PedWest border crossing, ” by the San Diego Union Tribune’s Kate Morrissey and Alexandra Mendoza: “According to multiple volunteers, the people helping the Ukrainians have been instructed to bring 50 people every two hours during the day to the plaza.”

A message from Californians for Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support:

— “Feds accused of ignoring asbestos, mold at women’s prison,” by the AP’s Michael Balsamo and Michael R. Sisak: “The whistleblower complaints, filed by union officials at the Federal Correctional Institution in Dublin, California, alleged that senior Bureau of Prisons officials had failed to act to resolve the allegations of workplace contamination.”

— “War for JFK Drive: How a Museum’s Money Is Shaping the Fight Over San Francisco’s Most Controversial Street, ” by the SF Standard’s Josh Koehn: “The war entered a new phase Tuesday when Supervisor Connie Chan, whose vote is crucial because she represents the district where Golden Gate Park is located, weighed in with a plan to reopen the road to cars after spending months confusing everyone about where she stood on the issue.”

— “ LA jail guards routinely punch incarcerated people in the head, monitors find,” by the Guardian’s Sam Levin: “The report raised further concerns about the department’s use of the ‘Wrap’ device, which functions like a full-body restraining jacket and is used to ‘immobilize’ people.”

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

— The One Thing Ro Khanna Thinks Donald Trump Gets Right, by POLITICO’s Ruby Kramer: With his party facing a dismal outlook in the midterms this fall, Khanna is asking Democrats to take a lesson from the master of the news cycle. “One of the things, as terrible as Donald Trump is,’ the congressman says, ‘he does these rallies. So there’s this sense of movement.”

WALKBACK — “Garcetti gave ‘unintentionally blended numbers’ on sex allegations involving advisor, rep says, ” by the LA Times’ Dakota Smith and Jennifer Haberkorn: “When pressed by reporters about the Senate’s concerns, Garcetti told two television reporters on Thursday that 40 people ‘under oath’ didn’t provide corroboration to bolster the sexual harassment allegations made against his former aide, Rick Jacobs.”

— “ Democrat Owns Fancy Electric Car, Tells Constituents He’s ‘Feeling Pain from High Gas Prices,’” by the Washington Free Beacon’s Matthew Foldi and Andrew Stiles: Rep. Mark Levin’s (D-Calif.) “attempt at empathy fell flat.”

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HOLLYWOODLAND

NEW KID ON THE BLOCK — “Hollywood Gets a New Giant,” by NYT’s John Koblin: “Rivals like Netflix, Disney, Amazon and Apple now have a new ferocious competitor for streaming dominance.”

SILICON VALLEYLAND

PROFILE — “The Fortunes of MacKenzie Scott,” by NYT’s Nicholas Kulish and Rebecca R. Ruiz.

— “Elon Musk Will Not Join Twitter’s Board, Company Says,” by the NYTimes’ Mike Isaac: “Elon Musk, the world’s wealthiest man and the biggest shareholder of Twitter, will no longer join the social media service’s board of directors, the company said late Sunday.”

MIXTAPE

— “Four-alarm fire that ripped through a Bay Area port could burn for another 48 hours,” by the SF Chronicle’s Lauren Hernández.

— “Former USC water polo coach convicted in college admissions scandal trial,” by Reuters’ Nate Raymond.

— “ Westfield malls go up for sale as U.S. shoppers find other places to buy,” by the LA Times’ Roger Vincent.

— “A prosecutor’s fight against sex trafficking — and Backpage.com, ” by the WaPo’s E.J. Graff.

— “Californians can use library card to visit state parks for free,” by KTLA’s Sareen Habeshian.

TRANSITIONS

— Ned Resnikoff will be policy director at California YIMBY, coming over from the UCSF Benioff Homelessness and Housing Initiative.

IN MEMORIAM

— “Rick Obrand is part collector, part historian and fully a fan of City Section sports,” by the LA Times’ Luca Evans.

BIRTHDAYS

Netflix’s Erika Masonhall … RIAA’s Michele Ballantyne … Google’s Amanda Golden … Amazon’s Kevin O’Neill … Jon Berrier … Paul Arden

SUNDAY: Shef’s Amy Dudley

SATURDAY: Miranda Green

A message from Californians for Solutions to Homelessness and Mental Health Support:

Our initiative is the only one on the November ballot that will generate hundreds of millions of dollars each year to fight homelessness and fund mental health and addiction treatment in California. Nearly half of the country has legalized online sports betting, proving states can do so safely and responsibly - and generate significant tax revenue. Our initiative will also provide millions each year and new economic opportunities for California Tribal nations. Add your name to support a permanent funding solution to address California’s homelessness crisis.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

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