Boudin is out, Republicans are in

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Wednesday Jun 08,2022 01:16 pm

Jun 08, 2022

Presented by California Environmental Voters

THE BUZZ — San Francisco renounced their district attorney, Republican affiliation still matters, GOP House incumbents are exhaling, and we’re headed for an epic Los Angeles faceoff.

Two early race calls set the tone for last night’s primary. First we learned that Republican state Sen. Brian Dahle would advance to a November runoff with Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom, leaving independent Michael Shellenberger in the also-ran rack. And then the expected earthquake as San Francisco District Attorney Chesa Boudin was recalled, succumbing to a confluence of crime concerns and massive opposition spending.

Boudin’s ouster was not exactly a surprise. The polls all augured his defeat as San Francicans developed buyers’ remorse after elevating the former public defender in 2019 — a rejection encouraged by a deep-pocketed coalition of tech and real estate interests. His loss is a blow to the national progressive prosecution movement, although an undiminished Boudin told supporters in a fiery speech that “the movement that got us elected in 2019 is alive and well.” Now San francisco Mayor London Breed gets to select a replacement — potentially a long-term one as voters were rejecting a measure barring her pick from seeking re-election.

Nor should Dahle’s victory have shocked you. Since Republicans’ long trudge through the statewide-office-less wilderness began, campaigns regularly contemplate a no-party-preference option as a more viable pick. But California’s five-million-plus Republicans often have other ideas. So it went in the attorney general’s race, where NPP Sacramento District Attorney Anne Marie Schubert was running a distant third behind two Republicans: lead challenger and former U.S. Attorney Nathan Hochman, followed by attorney Eric Early. Gamesmanship by incumbent AG Rob Bonta and allies may have failed to elevate the preferred Early to November.

Speaking of Republicans: frontline Reps. Young Kim and David Valadao had reason to be nervous heading into last night. Both were facing surprisingly stiff Republican challenges (remember, Valadao was the only CA House Republican to vote for former President Donald Trump’s impeachment) that threatened to upend the party’s plans. But Kim and Valadao were leading their GOP rivals as early returns flowed in — although it’s still early, and Valadao's lead was slimmer.

Check out the latest House and statewide results via POLITICO.

But it’s not too early to prepare for a November contest to lead California’s biggest city through a fraught era. Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat businessman Rick Caruso and Democratic Rep. Karen Bass punched their tickets last night. Bass was the presumptive frontrunner. Then Caruso spent tens of millions of dollars to tap into restiveness about the status quo, particularly when it came to crime and homelessness. Voters’ next choice in this race will speak volumes about Angelenos’ arc. Meanwhile, embattled L.A. Sheriff Alex Villanueva did not get enough votes to avert a runoff.

Those are some toplines. But we have much, much more in this special morning-after edition of California Playbook. Read on!

BUENOS DÍAS, good Wednesday morning. If you’re not sick of talking about California primaries yet, join us at 9 a.m. for a Twitter spaces discussion. In non-election news, President Joe Biden is in Los Angeles today for the Summit of the Americas — as is Gov. Gavin Newsom. The two men were last in Los Angeles County together for an anti-recall rally in September.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Our cause is righteous, and we have already won … We have already won because we are part of a national movement that recognizes we can never incarcerate our way out of poverty.” A fiery Boudin’s uncowed concession speech.

TWEET OF THE DAY: Democratic consultant @StevenMaviglio with a major takeaway: "Fact: Having NPP next to your name is a killer in June. Having an R next to your name is a killer in November. Damned if you do, damned if you don't."

BONUS TOTD: LATimes reporter @JamesQueallyLAT on the withering of a proud tradition: “Another election cycle without newsroom election night pizza. Everything they told us in journalism school was a lie.”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Los Angeles, where he will greet Biden at the airport, proceed to a methane discussion with climate envoy John Kerry and officials from Latin America and Canada, and then make remarks at the inaugural ceremony.

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: stand with our kids! Your choices in this year’s state budget can save California from a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Invest California’s record budget surplus in climate solutions now. The governor’s $47.1 billion proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years. We need at least $75 billion invested in a Climate Courage Budget. The choice is yours. Our kids’ future is at stake.

CAMPAIGN MODE

DISCLAIMER! These results are not final. California law allows ballots that are postmarked on Election Day and that arrive by seven days later. So these numbers will shift, and some smart political consultants believe the later votes will skew Republican. With that out of the way…

THE STATEWIDES:

CONTROLLER: Republican Lanhee Chen is poised to advance and become one of the party’s most promising November prospects. Democratic establishment-backed Board of Equalization member Malia Cohen has built a leader over other Democrats.

INSURANCE COMMISSIONER: Democratic Assembly member Marc Levine sat atop a fragmented field for second place as he sought to continue his challenge of incumbent Democrat Ricardo Lara, who had a large plurality.

SENATE: Sen. Alex Padilla advanced, of course. The same is not true for quixotic Elon Musk hater Dan O’Dowd.

CONGRESS

CD-3: Republican Assembly member Kevin Kiley, who secured the endorsement of former President Donald Trump, beat out Sacramento Sheriff Scott Jones and will face Democratic doctor Kermit Jones in an R+5 seat.

CD-5: Fresno Supervisor Nathan Magsig’s decision to challenge Rep. Tom McClintock ended in failure as Magsis finished third.

CD-13: Assembly member Adam Gray was ahead of 2020 House candidate Phil Arballo as the two Democrats vied to represent a Democratic-majority new Central Valley seat. The victor will likely face Republican John Duarte.

CD-15: Assembly member Kevin Mullin and San Mateo Supervisor David Canepa were heading to a Democrat-on-Democrat faceoff for Rep. Jackie Speier’s soon-to-be-former seat.

CA-27: We’ll get round three of GOP Rep. Mike Garcia versus Democratic former Assembly member Christy Smith after Democratic Navy veteran Quaye Quartey fell short. Garcia beat Smith by just 333 votes in 2020 — and redistricting repainted his district bluer.

CA-41: Democratic prosecutor Will Rollins was positioned to take on GOP Rep. Ken Calvert — whose birthday is today — in an even D-R district. Rollins and fellow Democrat Shrina Kurani cumulatively had a majority of the votes as of late last night.

CA-42: We may not get the Garcia-on-Garcia clash. Democratic Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia led for this safe blue open seat, but Democratic Assembly member Cristina Garcia sat in third.

CD-49: Former San Juan Capistrano Mayor Bryan Maryott led Orange County Board Lisa Bartlett to take on Democratic Rep. Mike Levin in a contested D+3.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

THE SENATE

GOP FREEZEOUT? SD-04 looked like a Republican hold. But Democrats Marie Alvarado-Gil and Tim Robertson occupied the top two slots by thousands of votes as six Republicans split the majority of the votes. In nearby SD-06, Republican former state lawmaker Roger Niello looks likely to advance, but Democrat Paula Villescaz posted a promising showing with about half of the votes.

DEM-ON-DEMS : In SD-8 and SD-10, we’re positioned to get a pair of expensive Dem-on-Dem clashes: former Assembly member Dave Jones versus Sacramento City Council member Angelique Ashby in the former and Fremont Mayor Lilly Mei versus Hayward City Council Member Aisha Wahab in the latter ( Republican Paul Pimentel was a few thousand votes behind).

Both races have already attracted enormous spending. Expect more of that. In SD-20, businessman (and son of outgoing Sen. Bob Hertzberg) Daniel Hertzberg is poised to match up with fellow Democrat and nonprofit director Caroline Menjivar, although Republican Ely De La Cruz Ayao was fewer than 1,000 votes out of second.

VALLEY VYING: In SD-16, where state Sen. Melissa Hurtado drew Democratic challengers after redistricting forced her to move to avert a clash with Sen. Anna Caballero, Republican David Shephard was the top vote-getter — averting a D-on-D but underscoring that the D+13 seat is no sure thing for Dems.

THE ASSEMBLY

LEE WAY: Progressive Assembly member Alex Lee was thwarting real estate interests’ $1 million attempt to swap in another Democrat in AD-24. Lee led comfortably and neither rival Democrats boosted was in position to advance — although his predecessor Kansen Chu was close.

NOT SO PROUD: A gambit by Assembly member Ken Cooley to propel proud boy Jeffrey Perrine past Republican chief of staff Josh Hoover in AD-07 looks like it didn’t work. Hoover was far ahead and looks likely to face Cooley for this competitive D+5.

FEELING SPECIAL: Here’s one to puzzle over: Democrats Tina McKinnor and Robert Pullen-Miles (in AD-62) and Democrats David Alvarez and Georgette Gómez (in AD-80) were vying in both special elections for the rest of this year, and in regular primaries for the 2023-24 term. Voters diverged. McKinnor led Pullen-Miles in the one-on-one special but trailed him in the multi-candidate primary; similarly, Alvarez was ahead in the special but behind in the primary.

CONTESTED RACES: We’re glimpsing the November field in two frontline campaigns. In AD-40, nurse advocate Pilar Schiavo is positioned to challenge GOP Assembly member Susan Martinez Valladares as Schiavo led fellow Democrat and businesswoman Annie Cho. In AD-76, GOP municipal water official Kristie Bruce-Lane led businesswoman June Cutter to challenge Democratic Assembly member Brian Maienschein.

BLUE SEAT STRUGGLES: Returns from almost-certainly-Democratic districts augur quite a few Democrat-on-Republican matchups rather than the Dem-on-Dems that tend to attract massive outside spending. In other words — many of these races will effectively be over in June:

— Dublin City Council member Shawn Kumagai and Alameda Labor Council chief Liz Ortega are in the top two in AD-20 … Democratic San Mateo Deputy Mayor Diane Papan is far in front in AD-21, and Republican Mark Gilham is leading Democratic Redwood City Mayor Giselle Hale for second …

— Democratic Morro Bay City Council member Dawn Addis is poised to face Republican Vicki Nohrden in AD-30 … Democratic Palmdale City Council member Juan Carrillo and Republican Paul Andre Marsh sit in the top slots in AD-39 (where former Assembly member Steve Fox was in last) … Riverside County Board of Education Member Corey Jackson and Republican Hector Diaz-Nava led in AD-60 …

— Democratic Downey Mayor Blanca Pacheco and Republican Raul Ortiz Jr. were in position for a runoff in AD-64 … Democratic Sacramento City Council member Eric Guerra was holding a slender second place in AD-10, where Democratic Elk Grove City Council member Stephanie Nguyen was in front.

GOP-ON-GOP: Two races feature Assembly Republicans who were drawn in together. Assembly member Tom Lackey was edging Assembly member Thurston Smith for a top-two spot in AD-34. We knew that Assembly member Marie Waldron and Assembly member Randy Voepel were headed to an AD-75 runoff because they’re the only candidates. But in a potential November preview, Waldron was crushing Voepel by 25 points.

DISTRICT ATTORNEY:

Last night’s story of elected prosecutors is more complex than just nuance. Across the bay in Alameda County, progressive Pamela Price led a crowded field followed by deputy DA Terry Wiley. In San Joaquin County, reformist Prosecutors Alliance member and D.A. Tori Verber Salazar was trailing challenger Ron Freitas.

In Orange County, scandal-plagued incumbent Todd Spitzer was leading Democratic challenger Pete Hardin by an enormous margin. In Santa Clara County, incumbent Jeff Rosen comfortably led two challengers. In Contra Costa County, progressive incumbent Diana Becton was sitting on a substantial lead. In Kings County, incumbent Keith Fagundes trailed challenger Sarah M. Hacker, who has run against Fagundes prosecuting stillbirths.

A message from California Environmental Voters:

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— “‘Culture of corruption’: Former DWP cybersecurity chief gets 4 years in prison,” by the LATimes’ Dakota Smith: “ David Alexander is the second city official to be sentenced in the sprawling federal corruption probe of the DWP and the city attorney’s office.”

DRY TIMES — “California orders thousands of farms and cities, including San Francisco, to stop pumping water during drought ,” by the SF Chronicle’s Kurtis Alexander: “The move, which comes amid a third year of the California drought, forces water users, from individual landowners to utilities serving tens of thousands of people, to turn to alternative sources of water, if they have it.”

— “ Parts of Southern California used 26% more water in April despite conservation pleas,” by the LATimes’ Hayley Smith: “Officials said the dismal report marked the second straight month of substantially higher water consumption in the state.”

HOMELESSNESS STANDOFF — “ Sacramento spent $617K preparing to open a homeless shelter. Here’s why the plan fell apart,” by the Sac Bee’s Theresa Clift: “The city of Sacramento has again cleared a homeless encampment and fenced a property. This time it was one that was one of the city’s most promising sites for a homeless shelter.”

— “ San Jose councilmember says relationship with Russia should end,” by the San Jose Spotlight’s Lorraine Gabbert.

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SILICON VALLEYLAND

— “Google pushes closer to downtown San Jose transit village launch,” by Bay Area News Group’s George Avalalos.

MIXTAPE

— “Redfin data shows home prices still skyrocketing in migration hotspots – but not in this California city,” by the SF Chronicle’s Kellie Hwang.

— “It’s called the zipper merge, and traffic-jammed California drivers to it all wrong,” by the LATimes’ Jonah Valdez.

— “ Angels fire Manager Joe Maddon amid 12-game losing streak,” by the OC Register’s Jeff Fletcher.

BIRTHDAYS

Rep. Ken Calvert … Julianna Margulies … Jim Cicconi … Alifair Masters of Rep. Jimmy Gomez’s office … Eric Kuhn

A message from California Environmental Voters:

Governor and Legislature: do you stand with our kids?

Your choices in this year’s state budget can either save California or doom it to a future plagued by deadly drought, wildfires, and heat waves. Investing California’s record budget surplus in clean energy and transportation, water, and other vital infrastructure now will provide a lifeline.

Climate change will soon bring our home state to a point of no return. We can’t overcome this massive threat to our health, lives, and livelihoods without bold leadership and a massive investment. The governor’s $47.1 billion climate proposal is unprecedented but only 3% of spending over 5 years.

Think bigger and pass a Climate Courage Budget that invests at least $75 billion over five years. The choice is yours but it’s our kids’ future at stake. Learn more here.

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