The scene in California’s battlegrounds

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Tuesday Jul 19,2022 01:20 pm

Jul 19, 2022

By Lara Korte, Jeremy B. White and Sakura Cannestra

Presented by Charge Ahead California Coalition

THE BUZZ — RED TO BLUE? Facing an uphill battle in the November elections, national Democrats are doing all they can to maintain control of the House of Representatives, including throwing their support behind a slate of Democrats in California’s most competitive districts.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the official campaign arm of House Democrats, added five new California Democrats to its “Red to Blue” program Monday, bolstering the candidates’ organizational and fundraising efforts as they work to oust their Republican challengers. The committee is backing Kermit Jones in CA-03, Assemblyman Adam Gray in CA-13, Christy Smith in CA-27, Asif Mahmood in CA-40, and Will Rollins in CA-41. Two other candidates, Jay Chen in CA-45 and Rudy Salas in CA-22, were already on the list.

The big picture here is a House on the brink of GOP control. Republicans are only five seats away from regaining control of the lower chamber, and with President Joe Biden’s low approval numbers and skyrocketing inflation, what was already expected to be a lackluster year for the incumbent party is shaping up to be a serious brawl for power.

Here, in Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s home state, Republicans were able to flip four seats in 2020, and now control 11 districts. If all goes to plan for Democrats this year, they’ll regain those four California seats and three more, giving them an additional buffer against expected losses in other parts of the country.

But as the saying goes, all politics is local, and even though candidates will get a serious boost from the support provided by the DCCC, much can be inferred from the voting strata of each district.

A look at the DCCC’s new chosen candidates and their prospects for victory come November:

Kermit Jones (CA-03): Jones is battling Assemblyman Kevin Kiley for this open northern state district that has long been held by Republicans and leans “likely R.” Kiley just barely beat out Jones for first place in the primary, winning 39.7 percent of the vote to 38.7 percent. It’s likely Jones will pick up the 5.4 percent of voters who went for the other Democrat, David Peterson, but, inversely, Kiley will likely pick up the 16.2 percent of voters who went for Republican Scott Jones , giving him a significant advantage.

Adam Gray (CA-13): Gray finished the primaries in this open district just behind Republican John Duarte, winning 31.1 percent to Duarte’s 34.2 percent. The seat leans D+4 per Cook’s PVI . Duarte could pick up the other 17.5 percent of voters who went for other Republicans in the primary, but you can also expect Gray to nab the other 17.1 percent of Democratic voters who went for Democrat Phil Arballo.

Christy Smith (CA-27): Smith is again running against incumbent Republican Rep. Mike Garcia, whom she has lost to twice, but this time around could be different. Garcia in 2020 beat Smith by just 333 votes, and after redistricting and the loss of conservative Simi Valley, the new CA-27 is leaning D+4 with 55 percent of voters going for Biden in 2020. Smith came in about 10 points behind Garcia in the primary election, but with higher turnout and Democratic consolidation in November she could pose a real threat to the incumbent.

Asif Mahmood (CA-40): Republican Rep. Young Kim came in about six points behind Mahmood in the primary, but don’t count her out. The district still leans “likely Republican,” and Kim is almost certain in November to pick up voters from ultra-conservative Greg Raths, who finished the primary with 23.2 percent of the vote.

Will Rollins (CA-41): A former federal prosecutor, Rollins is challenging incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert for this Riverside County district. Calvert is an avid Donald Trump supporter and one of the longest-serving Republicans in Congress, but redistricting could spell problems. The district leans Republican (R+3) but is now one where Trump led by only one point. Rollins came in about 18 points behind Calvert in the primary, and in November could absorb the support given to Democrat Shrina Kurani (15.6 percent) and anti-Trump Republican John Michael Lucio (4.6 percent).

BUENOS DÍAS, good Tuesday morning. T-minus 13 days until the Legislature reconvenes.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “For far too long, congressional staff have dealt with unsafe working conditions, unlivable wages, and vast inequity in our workplaces that prevent Congress from properly representing the communities and needs of the American people. Having a seat at the bargaining table through a union will ensure we have a voice in decisions that impact our workplace.” Congressional Workers Union in a press release celebrating the unionization of eight House of Representatives offices, including those of California Reps. Ro Khanna and Ted Lieu.

TWEET OF THE DAY: NPR’s Danielle Kurtzleben @titonka with a vibe check: “I keep seeing people chattering about Cooper, Pritzker, etc. for Dems in 2024 (if Biden doesn't run) ... and right now, very early on, it seems like the whole ‘shouldn't we have someone who isn't a straight white man?’ question has evaporated.”

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

A message from Charge Ahead California Coalition:

LEGISLATORS AND GOVERNOR NEWSOM - GET US OFF GAS NOW! Millions of dollars are at stake for Californians still suffering from high gas prices. We can’t afford to chip away at the more than $10 billion dollars that have been promised to our clean, electric car programs. We need our leaders to protect these investments. It’s time to break free from volatile prices at the pump and clean up our air! Learn more: www.InvestInCleanAir.com.

TOP TALKERS

DESERTED IN THE DESERT — “As police crack down on homelessness, unhoused end up in Mojave desert,” by the Guardian’s Sam Levin: “On the edge of northern Los Angeles county, at least 200 people are living in tents and trailers on remote, harsh terrain. ‘They treat us like we’re a lost cause,’ one resident said.”

— “Fueled by rapid reinfections, California’s soaring summer COVID wave could top winter surge ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Rong-Gong Lin II and Luke Money: “The wastewater data suggest many infections aren’t being recorded in officially reported coronavirus case counts.”

— “No-Bid Medi-Cal Contract for Kaiser Permanente Is Now Law, but Key Details Are Missing ,” by California Healthline’s Bernard J. Wolfson: “On June 30, with little fanfare, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed the bill that codifies the deal, despite concerns first reported by [Kaiser Health News] that [Kaiser Permanente] was getting preferential treatment from the state that would allow it to continue enrolling a healthier pool of Medi-Cal patients, leaving other health plans with a disproportionate share of the program’s sickest and costliest patients.”

— “ Fresno Council President Charged with Felony Over Alleged Extortion,” by the GV Wire’s David Taub: “In allegations made by fellow city councilman Garry Bredefeld — and corroborated publicly by Sloan — [Fresno City Council President Nelson] Esparza allegedly told the city attorney to work only for a majority of four councilmembers, or face termination.”

CAMPAIGN MODE

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — BASS HIRES: Rep. Karen Bass is fortifying her Los Angeles mayoral campaign team, bringing on veteran fundraiser Stephanie Smith to take over the money game and consultant Yuseff Robb, who has worked with current L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti.

HAVE QUESTIONS ABOUT ROE BEING OVERTURNED? JOIN WOMEN RULE ON 7/21: Now that the Supreme Court has overturned Roe v. Wade , abortion policy is in the hands of the states and, ultimately, voters. Join POLITICO national political correspondent Elena Schneider for a Women Rule “ask me anything” conversation featuring a panel of reporters from our politics and health care teams who will answer your questions about how the court’s decision could play out in different states, its impact on the midterms and what it means for reproductive rights in the U.S. going forward. SUBMIT YOUR QUESTIONS AND REGISTER HERE.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

VILLAREUNION: Staff alums of former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa are getting together today in L.A. — a confab that’s expected to include a sizable chunk of the Latino Legislative Caucus. Villaraigosa’s most recent major public foray came when he ran for governor in 2018.

SEARING INDICTMENT — “Move thousands of homeless people into landmark L.A. Sears building? Some say no way,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Andrew J. Campa: “The project would be dedicated to ‘saving lives,’ Taormina told his audience, vowing not to build ‘anything like a prison’ on the landmark lot.”

— “These California nurse-midwives want to provide abortions. They’re struggling to get trained,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Emily Alpert Reyes: “California lawmakers have laid the legal groundwork for a range of health providers to provide abortions, but certified nurse-midwives and other eligible health professionals say that scant opportunities for training have made it harder for them to do so.”

— “S.F. taxpayers shell out hundreds of thousands of dollars a year to disgraced city officials. This plan would end that ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Mallory Moench: “With few exceptions, San Francisco city workers cannot currently lose their pensions unless they’re convicted of and sentenced for a crime of “moral turpitude,” which doesn’t have a clear legal definition.”

AGED OUT — “ California leaders wanted inflation relief for poor seniors. Now they’re left out again,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Lindsey Holden and Brianna Taylor: “Relief and stimulus programs use the state’s Franchise Tax Board to distribute money, and the agency doesn’t have have non-filers like [Mary] Carr in its system. It’s why they also missed out on California’s Golden State Stimulus Program last year.”

A message from Charge Ahead California Coalition:

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

— Anthony Fauci wants to put Covid’s politicization behind him, by POLITICO’s Sarah Owermohle: After more than five decades of federal service under seven presidents, Anthony Fauci says he’s leaving by the end of President Joe Biden’s term.

— “What would California do if Congress passed a national abortion ban?” by the Sacramento Bee’s David Lightman and Lindsey Holden: “Could there come a point where California’s defiance triggers a constitutional crisis of the sort not seen since the civil rights movement of the mid-20th century or even the Civil War?”

UNITING ON THE HILL — Staffers to eight House Democrats are about to be the first to file for union recognition . By POLITICO’s Katherine Tully-McManus: Today marks the most significant expansion of workers rights for Capitol Hill employees in almost thirty years, with House staffers now explicitly protected from retaliation or firing if they choose to organize a union.

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— “Uber settles federal suit claiming it unfairly charged people with disabilities,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Chase DiFeliciantonio: “The settlement will see Uber pay $1,738,500 to more than one thousand riders who filed complaints with the company over being charged wait time fees because of a disability. $500,000 will also go to other people who the DOJ says suffered harm as a result of the policy.”

— “Restaurant and private members lounge to be built controversially in San Francisco's 'public' Salesforce Park ,” by the SFGate’s Andrew Chamings: “As downtown San Francisco suffers through soaring homelessness, vacant storefronts and a deadly fentanyl epidemic, the idea of its newest public space only providing food for those willing to spend exorbitant sums is brazen.”

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MIXTAPE

TASTE THE PAIN-BOW? — “Skittles ‘unfit for human consumption,’ California lawsuit claims,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Nathan Solis.

— “Monterey Bay shark attack: California wildlife officials offer estimate on shark’s size,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Rachel Swan.

— “ Where are the Parkland activists today?” by the New York Times’ Frances Robles.

— “Abortion-Pill Orders Increase, Even in Restrictive States ,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Brianna Abbott and Juan Montes.

— “Accused shooter in California 7-Eleven holdups to be charged with 3 counts of murder,” by the Mercury News’ Sean Emery and Brian Rokos.

— “Armored Brink’s Security Truck in California Robbed of Valuables Worth Millions,” by the Wall Street Journal’s Ginger Adam Otis.

BIRTHDAYS

Google’s Maria Giannopoulos … former Rep. John Campbell (R-Calif.) … Stephanie Valencia … Peter Obregon … Howard Schultz … Ian Schrager

A message from Charge Ahead California Coalition:

California’s record budget surplus was an opportunity to provide us relief from the soaring costs of owning a car. The investments promised to our clean car programs are at risk! Our legislators have a responsibility to protect promised investments that support equitable clean, electric car programs that will get us off the gas price rollercoaster.

Low-income communities and communities of color bear an unfair burden of fuel costs and harmful pollution, having suffered generations of systematic marginalization. Critical equity programs that make pollution-free travel an option for all Californians are chronically underfunded. As we finalize our state’s budget, we cannot give in to the pressure to chip away at the investments in these critical clean, electric car programs!

Learn more at www.InvestInCleanAir.com.

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