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Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte’s must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State | | | | |  | | By Jeremy B. White , Lara Korte , Sakura Cannestra and Owen Tucker-Smith | THE BUZZ: After roughly a billion dollars spent, millions of voters contacted, thousands of volunteer hours expended and hundreds of campaign stories immediately buried by the news cycle, we made it: it’s Election Day in California. Those expecting a Tuesday night climax may be left wanting: races will remain undecided for days to weeks, thanks to an expansive voting process that counts ballots mailed by today. That said, here are five toplines we’re watching tonight: 1. Is it a Republican wave? Polling trends portend a disappointing night for Democratic House candidates, puncturing hopes of erecting a California bulwark against a GOP takeover. We’ll see if Republican Reps. Michelle Steel, Mike Garcia, David Valadao, Young Kim and Ken Calvert lose their seats; whether remaining 2018 Democratic seat-flippers Rep. Katie Porter, Mike Levin and Josh Harder hold on; and if Rep. Julia Brownley loses a once safe-seeming seat. Here are our final California race ratings . Democratic supermajorities in Sacramento remain about as certain as Tax Day. But the two-thirds margins could shrink, with a half-dozen state legislative races looking highly competitive and a half-dozen more hovering in the reach category. State and county parties have poured millions into that map. 2. Will ballot initiatives bring surprises? Most of the statewide measures are likely to be called quickly: Californians are poised to reject sports betting, bolster abortion rights, ban flavored tobacco, refuse kidney dialysis regulations (again) and allocate arts education funding. A push to fund electric vehicles by taxing the rich appears to be the only real contest, setting Gov. Gavin Newsom and wealthy opponents against Lyft and environmentalists. Let’s see if the polling missed what’s in voters’ hearts. 3. Does the GOP statewide shutout continue? Every cycle, conservatives seek the formula to cracking Democrats’ iron grip on statewide office. They’ve failed the last seven times. Republican former U.S. Attorney Nathan Hochman remains a longshot to unseat Attorney General Rob Bonta. The GOP’s best bet may be controller candidate Lanhee Chen, who has attracted healthy financial support and enthusiastic coverage as he vies with Democrat Malia Cohen. We’ll see if it’s enough to overcome the California GOP’s five-million-voter registration deficit. 4. Whither Los Angeles law enforcement? The city of L.A. is understandably consumed by the expensive, caustic and tight mayoral battle between Rep. Karen Bass and developer Rick Caruso. But that race has been framed in part by public safety concerns, and voters countywide will make two important criminal justice decisions: whether to deny Sheriff Alex Villanueva a second term, and whether to allow the board of supervisors to fire future sheriffs. It was only weeks ago that Villanueva’s deputies raided a supervisor’s house in a spectacle that many saw as political reprisal. 5. What same-party showdowns will shape the Legislature? Democrats will still run Sacramento. But which ones? Twenty-one different state Legislature races feature same-party showdowns. Some have been among the cycle’s most expensive as interest groups spend to elevate allies and stymie foes. Among the most contested: Dave Jones versus Angelique Ashby in SD-08; Lily Mei versus Aisha Wahab in SD-10; Shawn Kumagai versus Liz Ortega in AD-20; and Jasmeet Bains versus Leticia Perez in AD-35. We also have two showdowns between incumbent Assembly Republicans drawn in together: Tom Lackey versus Thurston Smith and Marie Waldron versus Randy Voepel. BUENOS DÍAS, good Tuesday morning. Will all those mailed ballots offset the effects of a rainy Election Day? Let’s find out. We’ll be up into the wee hours of Wednesday watching the returns come in. See you on late-night Twitter! You can also get savvy live analysis of races in California and across the country at politico.com , and you can follow our handy election calls bot here . Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte . QUOTE OF THE DAY: “The big winner of the LA mayor’s race is the consultant who gets the commission on the media buy for Rick Caruso.” Former California GOP leader Jim Brulte, via the Capitol Weekly podcast . TWEET OF THE DAY:
|  Today's Tweet of the Day | Twitter | WHERE’S GAVIN? Planning to be in Sacramento for Election Night.
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | |  | Top Talkers | | THE SPEAKER SPEAKS — Pelosi on attack: Political future ‘will be affected about what happened ,’ by POLITICO’s Olivia Olander: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi repeatedly said her political future will be influenced by the recent attack on her husband, in an interview airing Monday on CNN . — Musk pushes independents to vote Republican ahead of midterms , by POLITICO’s Kelly Garrity: “To independent-minded voters: Shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties, therefore I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic,” Musk wrote on Twitter. The tweet garnered over 11,000 retweets and over 71,000 less than 30 minutes after it was posted.
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | |  | COULD CA DECIDE CONGRESS? In the latest installment of the POLITICO Snapchat Show, Jeremy outlines a handful of races across the Golden State that could help decide which party controls Congress. THE COST OF CRISES — “ Los Angeles Voters Are in a Foul Mood. Will a New Mayor Change Anything? ” by the New York Times’ Shawn Hubler: “As Los Angeles prepares to elect its first new mayor in nearly a decade, problems that have festered since the pandemic began are taking a psychic toll. In polls and surveys, as well as in dozens of recent interviews across the sprawling city, Angelenos say they are exhausted.” — “ Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters ,” by NPR’s Melissa Chan: “The fight for Orange County underscores the complexity of the Asian American vote. Demographics are not destiny here — both Republican and Democratic strategists can pull data suggesting an AAPI swing one way or the other.” AGING THE BALLOT — “ On Tuesday, this California city decides if 16-year-olds should be allowed to vote ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Connor Sheets: “Ada Meighan-Thiel, a 17-year-old senior at Culver City High School, acted out an age-old teenage ritual as she stood on Marcelo Chamecki’s front porch the week before election day. She was there to try to get an adult to take her and her young friends seriously.” LONG WEEK AHEAD — “ Here’s what we will — and won’t — know on election night in California midterms ,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Savanna Smith, Hanh Truong and Brianna Taylor: “Your vote counts — but when and how is it counted? California midterm election polls close at 8 p.m. on Nov. 8, and eligible voters have been casting ballots since October. Election Day isn’t what it used to be with the wide use of vote-by-mail across the United States.” — “ A farmworker’s son and a dairy farmer battle to represent the Central Valley in Congress ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Alejandra Reyes-Velarde: “[David] Valadao and [Rudy] Salas represent, at least symbolically, two of the largest forces fueling the Central Valley — the farmers who drive the area’s agricultural industry and the workers who harvest the food that feeds the nation.” PRICE IS RIGHT — “ Inflation is top issue in this week's midterms ,” by CapRadio’s Scott Horsley: “Like a movie monster from the 1970s, inflation is back and drawing crowds at a polling station near you. Rising prices are the number one concern for voters in this year's midterm elections, outpacing abortion, crime and other hot-button issues.”
| | CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR | | FINDING WATER… “ How can California boost its water supply? ” by CalMatters’ Rachel Becker: “Where can California get enough water to survive the latest dry stretch — and the next one, and the next? Can it pump more water from the salty Pacific Ocean? Treat waste flushed down toilets and washed down drains? Capture runoff that flows off streets into storm drains? Tow Antarctic icebergs to Los Angeles? … IN THE PACIFIC?— “ They used to call California ocean desalination a disaster. But water crisis brings new look ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Hayley Smith: “As the American Southwest barrels into a new era of extreme heat, drought and aridification, officials and conservationists are giving new consideration to the process of converting saltwater into drinking water, and the role it may play in California’s future.” MESSY MARKET — “ From S.F. to Hawaii and beyond, housing costs are pushing people out of increasingly expensive cities ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Chase DiFeliciantonio: “With San Francisco’s population in decline and a host of problems from homelessness to affordability, a recent round of polling by The Chronicle found that roughly a third of those surveyed are likely to leave in the next three years.” — “ The conservative California county where Prop. 1 may mean nothing for abortion ,” by SFGate’s Sam Moore: “The ordeal outlined the vast differences between urban and rural California when it comes to abortion — and which Californians face the highest barriers to accessing the procedure, regardless of statewide protections.” SILVER LINING — “ Election week storm in California will effectively end fire season ,” by the Washington Post’s Diana Leonard: “A winter storm is bringing heavy rain and snow to California, affecting much of the state as people get out to vote on Election Day on Tuesday. The storm could be one of the state’s most significant November storms in recent years, which is part of an active weather pattern that could help replenish mountain snowpack and effectively end fire season across California.” — “ Poverty drops in California but only because of child tax credit, COVID relief funds ,” by CalMatters’ Wendy Fry: “Poverty fell in California during the COVID pandemic, recent data shows, largely due to state and national safety net programs, especially the expansion of federal child tax credits. But a deadline to file for those tax credits expires November 17, prompting advocates in California and a few state lawmakers to sound alarms.”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL | | BIG DAY FOR BIDEN — Biden closes the election with a big roll of the dice , by POLITICO’s Jonathan Lemire: Tuesday’s midterm elections will likely dramatically shape Biden’s next two years in office. Republican victories would almost certainly ensnarl the president’s agenda, trigger a slew of investigations and impact Biden’s 2024 reelection decision. 2024 VISION — Specter of midterm wipeout threatens Dem plans to shake up presidential primaries , by POLITICO’s Elena Schneider: The Democratic National Committee is planning to pick up a big project after the midterm election: shaking up its presidential nominating process and changing the states that get to vote early. But a potential Republican wave on Tuesday could suddenly limit Democrats’ options for upending the primary calendar.
| | SILICON VALLEYLAND | | OUT OF OFFICE — “ Remote work or not? How 4 Bay Area companies are tackling the post-pandemic workplace ,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Carolyn Said: “A growing number of Bay Area companies are letting employees decide whether and when to work at their physical offices. They say productivity remains high, while employee satisfaction has soared thanks to better work-life balance and ability to relocate.” FOURTH ESTATE — “ What Twitter’s changes mean for news organizations ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Wendy Lee: “The complaints, fears and angst surrounding changes at troubled tech giant Twitter began unraveling on its own platform by the very people who report the news — journalists.” — “ Silicon Valley Job Cuts Are No Cure-All for Tech’s Falling Stock Prices ,” by Bloomberg’s Subrat Patnaik: “Companies such as Meta Platforms Inc. are waking up to investor demands that they cut costs in the face of a looming recession, but shareholders looking for relief from the relentless tech-stock selloff can only take so much comfort from that.”
| | MIXTAPE | | ZOOMING IN — “ Which California state departments are most supportive of remote work? New data has answers ,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Wes Venteicher. — “ Willie Brown’s Boozy Election Day Party Is Back ,” by the San Francisco Standard’s Josh Koehn. — “ Meteor may have caused fire that destroyed California home, firefighters say ,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Noah Goldberg. HEADS UP — “ Why this could be a nasty flu season ,” by SFGate’s Amy Graff. — “ Election Canvassers Want Latinos to Know Voting Is Good for Their Health ,” by Kaiser Health News’ Bernard J. Wolfson.
| | BIRTHDAYS | | Amazon’s Erin Cohan … L.A. Times’ Jackeline Luna … Katt Riley … Casey Hernandez CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here . Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
