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Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte’s must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State | | | | |  | | By Jeremy B. White, Lara Korte and Owen Tucker-Smith | THE BUZZ: Welcome to 2023! It should be a dynamic year in California politics. A transformed Legislature will get to work. Gov. Gavin Newsom will embark on a second term. Fiscal storm clouds are massing. Generational political shifts loom in the near distance. And don’t discount a natural disaster or three, this being California. Here are some major story lines we’re watching: INAUGURAL INITIATIVE — Four years ago, Newsom rode a landslide into office and used his inaugural address to tout a “California for all” that contrasted with a hostile Trump administration, which he would battle for the next two years. Now, Newsom is again riding a landslide win and enters his second term as a national figure trailed by presidential speculation. The themes he hits on Jan. 6 (the date is no accident) will telegraph his second-term agenda. We’ll see if he emphasizes climate and his battle with the oil industry. PRESIDENTIAL POSITIONING — Is Vice President Kamala Harris going to run for president in 2024? Is Newsom? The answer to both hinges on whether President Joe Biden seeks a second term. If he doesn’t, Harris would be positioned to run. Despite Newsom’s enhanced national profile, his path through Harris — whom he backed to be our next president — would be a difficult one. SENATORIAL STATUS — Sen. Dianne Feinstein is finishing her term as the longest-serving woman in Senate history, denying Newsom a fourth statewide appointment. But she’s unlikely to seek re-election in 2024. Feinstein has said she could reveal her plans in the spring — at which point, the dam will burst. Several California House Democrats could run, which would set off a cascade of other campaign moves. If Rep. Katie Porter’s seat opens, that could break a Dem-on-Dem logjam between Orange County Sens. Dave Min and Josh Newman. Los Angeles Democrats are already talking about who could succeed Rep. Adam Schiff.
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Sen. Dianne Feinstein arrives for a nomination hearing with the Senate Judiciary Committee on Feb. 1, 2022, in Washington, D.C. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images | FISCAL FEARS — How swiftly budgets change. One cycle ago, California had a colossal surplus. Now, forecasters are warning of a potential deficit counted in the tens of billions of dollars. Lawmakers accustomed to times of plenty could experience whiplash in negotiations dictated by scarcity, overflowing rainy day fund notwithstanding. Newsom will likely find himself again in the role of holding the line on ongoing spending. We’ll get his initial blueprint next week. LEADERSHIP LABORS — Both Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon and Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins are in their final two years. A caustic speakership standoff climaxed with a November deal to have Assembly member Robert Rivas replace Rendon this summer, although it’s not official until the caucus votes. There has been markedly less drama and overt positioning in the Senate, and it’s possible Atkins doesn’t hand off power until next year. But successions are inevitable. That also means critical committee chairmanships changing hands — a key reward for backing the correct candidate. REPUBLICAN RUMBLES — Could California produce two national Republican leaders? It may seem far-fetched given the diminished status of California Republicans, who have been relegated to super-minority status and locked out of statewide office, but it could happen: Bakersfield Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy’s speakership dreams will hinge on a vote today, with frontline California Republicans in support and McCarthy making a key concession that would constrain his authority. And longtime California Republican Party figure Harmeet Dhillon is channeling conservative discontent as she pushes to unseat RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel later this month. BUENOS DÍAS, good Tuesday morning. We hope you rested up and stayed dry during an exceptionally wet end to 2022. The upside of all that precipitation: California’s drought-depleted reservoir levels are rising, though they remain below historical averages. Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up: jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte. QUOTE OF THE DAY: “The Legislature is totally dependent on Southwest functioning.” State Sen. Tom Umberg on the preferred airline for district-to-Sacramento commuting, via The New York Times. TWEET OF THE DAY:
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Today's Tweet of the Day | Twitter | WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
|  | Top Talkers | | JUDGE STEINBERG? Gavin Newsom eyes Sacramento mayor for key judgeship, by POLITICO’s Lara Korte: The California State Bar emailed confidential questionnaires to several members last week asking them to evaluate Steinberg, a Democrat, as part of the official state vetting process for judicial nominees. According to the email obtained by POLITICO, Newsom is considering Steinberg for the Third District Court of Appeals in Sacramento. — Newsom’s moderate course in California angers critics as his national profile rises, by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: Newsom, despite the rhetoric, is pro-business and a centrist at heart, according to dozens of interviews with those who have followed his career and a review of his record. And that’s how he’s likely to govern over the next four years after winning reelection in a landslide last month. PARTING SHOT — “Garcetti’s last order as mayor: Light up the Hollywood sign. Bass rescinded it,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Dakota Smith and Julia Wick: "It may have been the shortest-lived executive directive in Los Angeles City Hall history. Mayor Eric Garcetti, on his last day in office, quietly signed an executive directive — a regal-sounding action that amounts to an order to city departments — for a program to light up the Hollywood sign." — “I just got myself banned from Elon Musk’s Twitter. Here's why you should, too,” opines Gil Duran for the San Francisco Chronicle: “It’s an honor to get canceled by Musk, who is welcoming neo-Nazis back to Twitter while banning reporters. Still, it’s admittedly terrifying to see him cross the bright red line of declaring outright war against freedom of the press.” THE BIG DAY — McCarthy heads to grueling speaker vote with fate in limbo, by POLITICO’s Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney: After weeks of intense, down-to-the-wire negotiations, the California Republican is about out of time to lock down the needed 218 votes. With his yearslong effort to claim the speakership trapped in limbo, he’ll first meet with his party’s conference this morning behind closed doors, likely making his final case before members head to the House floor to vote.
| | CAMPAIGN MODE | | FAST FOOD FIGHT — Judge halts fast food labor law as potential referendum looms, by POLITICO’s Jeremy B. White: A coalition of chain restaurants had sued to block the imminent implementation of AB257, arguing the state should wait and see if their referendum challenging the law has qualified for the 2024 ballot. Sacramento Superior Court Judge Shelleyanne W. L. Chang granted that request on Friday, freezing the law until a Jan. 13 hearing at the earliest. RANK ERROR — “After election debacle in Oakland, what’s next for ranked choice voting?” by the Mercury Times’s Shomik Mukherjee: “The revelation this week of an unprecedented error in Alameda County’s counting of election results has upended an Oakland school board race. But more lasting damage could be done to the reputation of ranked choice voting, a novel ‘instant runoff’ format that is growing in popularity around the country.” — “Oakland’s next mayor highlights political rise of Hmong Americans,” by The New York Times' Amy Qin: “Ms. Thao was part of a wave of Hmong Americans to triumph this year in state and local elections across the country. In Minnesota, home to the nation’s second-largest concentration of Hmong residents, a record nine Hmong candidates won their races for the State Legislature. In Wisconsin and California’s Central Valley, Hmong Americans also won local seats.”
| | CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR | | STATE OF SOUTHWEST — “In California, Southwest Meltdown Reveals Cracks in Key Travel Link,” by The New York Times’ Shawn Hubler and Jill Cowan: “State legislators from Southern California fly Southwest so often that an ecosystem has evolved around their schedules, with lobbyists booking flights at the beginning or end of the week in the hope of sitting next to a lawmaker. Southwest accounts for more than half of traffic at Sacramento International Airport.” — “California's ban on big rigs and buses made before 2010 goes into effect in January. Here's what that will mean,” by KCRA’s Ashley Zavala: “The air resources board said there are an estimated 200,000 vehicles that have yet to comply with the rule just days before the new year, including roughly 70,000 big rig trucks, or about 10% of the commercial motor vehicles operating in the state, according to trucking lobbying groups.” PENSION PERIL — Newsom, key Democratic governors brace for pension crunch as recession looms, by POLITICO’s Sam Sutton: The political stakes are also high for key Democrats — including Govs. Gavin Newsom of California, J.B. Pritzker of Illinois and Phil Murphy of New Jersey — who have touted their records as fiscal stewards as they angle for a bigger role on a national stage. All three have pumped billions of dollars into their states’ retirement systems to stabilize the programs amid unpredictable market swings. — “Another major storm to slam California, heightening dangers in battered NorCal,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Brittny Mejia: “After a powerful New Year’s Eve storm slammed the state, forecasters are warning Californians to prepare for another “brutal” weather system that could bring widespread flooding starting midweek.” TRAVEL BAN BACKLASH — “Blue states want red states to face consequences, but travel bans are harmful,” Indiana University’s Aaron E. Carroll opines for The New York Times: “It’s easy to see why California leaders might think a law like AB 1887 is needed. … When it comes to research and education, though, such laws can do more harm than good.” — “Vote by UC graduate student workers to ratify labor agreement exposed a sharp divide among campuses,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Paloma Esquivel: “The agreement was approved by separate units of United Auto Workers. … But teaching assistants and other academic workers at UC Merced, UC Santa Cruz and UC Santa Barbara overwhelmingly rejected the proposed contract while majorities at the UC system’s other campuses voted to approve it.” FOURPLEX FUMBLE — “California eliminated single-family zoning to encourage more housing. Why it hasn’t worked,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Maggie Angst: “Experts say narrow interest in the law is due to a combination of factors: high-interest rates and construction costs, regulatory loopholes and efforts by communities to limit the feasibility of small developments.” — “California lawyers rush to meet deadline to file lawsuits over past child sex abuse,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sophia Bollag: “The deadline (they) are rushing to meet was set back in 2019, when California lawmakers passed a new law extending the statute of limitations for childhood sexual assault claims.” DRUG DECISIONS — “As fentanyl overdose deaths keep rising, efforts to reverse trend meet liability fears,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Connor Sheets: “In the face of such distressing failure to reduce deaths from opioids, methods for addressing the crisis that many once considered too risky or even unthinkable are now being debated by state and local officials and rolled out in communities devastated by overdoses.” — “Column: San Francisco closed its safe drug consumption site, pushing California toward more death,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Anita Chabria: “(Mayor London) Breed is either going to buck state and federal law and the loud disapproval of the crackdown crowd to open another safe consumption site, or she’ll cave to mounting political pressure and won’t, which will likely kill the concept in the Golden State for the foreseeable future.” MARK IT — “Here’s your 2023 timeline for California environmental issues,” by the Orange County Register’s Brooke Staggs: “From escalating drought to a flood of funding; from epic wildlife encounters to unprecedented energy battles — 2022 was a momentous year for environmental issues in Southern California. In some ways, 2023 looks to be no less notable. Forecasts call for another dry winter, environmental bills are already on the table, and key deadlines are coming.” — “No place to call home,” by Capital & Main’s Ethan Ward: “To really put a dent in visible homelessness, (Mayor Karen) Bass will need to galvanize a wide array of resources to produce structures to house people on the streets. She will also need to stabilize the situation for people who sometimes still have a private place to sleep.” — “Unionization stalls at Amazon as turnover, company efforts stymie activism,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Sebastian Herrera: “When thousands of workers at an Amazon warehouse in New York voted to unionize earlier this year, Nannette Plascencia thought her facility east of Los Angeles could be among those to vote next.” — “Inside an underground network of Los Angeles museums,” by The New York Times’ Adam Nagourney: “Over the past decade, Los Angeles has emerged as a global arts center … less visible is an extensive and important network of smaller museums, catering to niche audiences interested in topics ranging from olive growing to the Garifuna people of the Caribbean.”
| | BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL | | — White House to Jim Jordan, James Comer: Sorry, but you have to restart your oversight requests, by POLITICO’s Heidi Przybyla: In respective letters to Reps. James Comer (R-Ky) and Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), White House Special Counsel Richard Sauber said that the Biden administration had no immediate plans to respond to a slew of records requests that both men made the past several weeks.
| | SILICON VALLEYLAND | | LOOKING AHEAD — “Will tech layoffs end the era of remote work? Here’s what experts predict for 2023,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Chase DiFeliciantonio: “Remote working as it stands is likely to remain a feature of professional life for many in the Bay Area in 2023. As will the looming specter of layoffs, at least for the beginning of the year.” — “Emails reveal Sam Bankman-Fried’s courtship of federal regulators,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Freddie Brewster: “As chief executive of FTX, a crypto exchange, Bankman-Fried hired multiple former federal regulators who helped connect him with top officials at the CFTC, the agency that he hoped would be charged with regulating his industry, emails show.” — “Tesla stopped reporting its Autopilot safety numbers online. Why?” by the Los Angeles Times’ Russ Mitchell: “Tesla won’t say why it stopped reporting its safety statistics, which measure crash rates per miles driven. The company employs no media relations department. A tweet sent to Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk inviting his comments went unanswered.”
| | MIXTAPE | | ANOTHER ONE — “5.4 quake shakes Humboldt County,” by the Eureka Times Standard’s Ruth Schneider. — “Riverside County sheriff’s deputy killed; suspect dead after pursuit,” by the Riverside Press-Enterprise’s Brian Rokos. — “Berkeley leaders blindsided by 2017 sexual harassment claim against top cop candidate,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Sarah Ravani. — “Prosecutor: 4 more slayings tied to California serial killer,” via The Associated Press. NEW YEAR, NEW ME — “Top 10 places in California to visit in 2023,” by the Sam Francisco Chronicle’s Gregory Thomas and David Ferry. — “California prison guard accused of assaulting female inmates, possibly more than 22,” by the Sacramento Bee’s Sam Stanton. — “Why is a Swedish billionaire buying up California’s video gaming empire?” by the Los Angeles Times’ Jaweed Kaleem. — “LA taps contaminated aquifers at Superfund sites to boost drinking water supplies,” by the L.A. Daily News’s Jason Henry. — “Bayview woman faces murder charges in killing of 2 children,” by the San Francisco Standard’s Jonah Owen Lamb. CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here. Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
