The coming post-Feinstein cascade

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Friday Jan 13,2023 02:13 pm

Jan 13, 2023

By Jeremy B. White, Lara Korte, Matthew Brown and Ramon Castanos

THE BUZZ:California’s congressional delegation could look dramatically different soon — and we’re not just talking about Sen. Dianne Feinstein.

The intensifying contest to succeed Feinstein would ripple far beyond the long-serving senator’s seat, cascading down California’s political food chain. Four House Democrats have already jumped in or indicated interest. Each open seat in Congress would draw in state lawmakers, creating opportunities for prospective members of the Legislature. That means even more turnover for a body that just welcomed dozens of new Assembly members.

Another factor to consider: With the exception of Rep. Katie Porter’s battleground seat, which Porter and the DCCC just spent heavily to defend, the House seats that follow are safely Democratic. That could mean a long-term tenure for whichever Democrat breaks through.

Here’s what to expect. Note: Unless otherwise noted, contenders mentioned here or their representatives declined to comment or did not respond to requests. If you’re thinking of running and we missed you, it’s not personal — reach out and set us straight!

Less than 48 hours after Porter became the first Senate candidate to launch, we got multiple candidates who are familiar to Orange County voters. Former Republican Assembly member Scott Baugh is taking another shot after losing to Porter in 2022. Former Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda is hoping to return to Congress after he was ousted by Rep. Michelle Steel in 2018 and nudged out of the 2020 contest by redistricting. Democratic state Sen. Dave Min hasn’t announced anything, but he placed behind Porter in 2018 and is currently running for re-election against fellow Democratic state Sen. Josh Newman.

Progressive stalwart Rep. Barbara Lee’s likely departure is major news in Oakland and Alameda County. Potential successors include Assembly members Buffy Wicks and Mia Bonta; state Sen. Nancy Skinner; just-departed Mayor Libby Schaaf; and BART board member Lateefah Simon. There will be pressure to replace Lee with another Black woman. That could boost Bonta or Simon, who told the San Francisco Chronicle she was “seeking counsel.” Former Oakland Council Member Loren Taylor, who just narrowly lost the mayoral race, indicated interest.

Rep. Adam Schiff is all but guaranteed to jump in. When he does, expect immense interest in his Los Angeles district. Assembly member Laura Friedman confirmed it was “certainly something we are looking at,” and she said other people are making calls in an indication that it could be a crowded field. It’s widely expected state Sen. Anthony Portantino could also seek the seat. He’s termed out in 2024. Former L.A. City Attorney Mike Feuer said he was “very seriously” considering running if Schiff gives up the seat.

Rep. Ro Khanna has confirmed he’s interested and being urged to run. The Silicon Valley congressman would bring Berniecrat cred, although he may opt out of clashing with fellow progressives while keeping the door open to a future presidential bid. But if Khanna does give up the House seat he once took from a fellow Democrat, his district is overlapped by those of Assembly members Alex Lee — a fellow Berniecrat — and Evan Low, who said he would “of course be interested.” State Sen. Aisha Wahab just won her area seat.

BUENOS DÍAS, good Friday morning. California’s landmark fast food law is in court this morning: The Sacramento judge who halted AB 257’s implementation late last month because of a potential ballot fight ordered parties to make their cases today.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up at jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: California Playbook will be off on Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Nobody deserves to die in fear, panicking and scared for their life. My cousin was scared for his life. He spent the last 10 years witnessing a movement challenging the killing of Black people. He knew what was at stake, and he was trying to protect himself. Nobody was willing to protect him.” Black Lives Matter co-founder Patrisse Cullors on her cousin Keenan Anderson dying after being tased by LAPD officers, via the Guardian.

BONUS QOTD: “I’ve got a commitment to the truth and to the Constitution. If I was him, I would resign.” California’s Rep. Mike Garcia on embattled fellow Republican Rep. George Santos, via Spectrum News.

TWEET OF THE DAY:

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

TOP TALKERS

— Ro Khanna says he’s looking at the Senate. His allies are talking about the White House, by POLITICO’s Holly Otterbein and Adam Wren: Khanna has retained consultants who are veterans of New Hampshire’s primary and Nevada’s. He paid one Iowa firm as well, before the Democratic National Committee made plans to revoke the state’s first-in-the-nation status.

DELINQUENT DOLLARS — "S.F. Paid $25M to revoked, suspended, delinquent nonprofits," by The San Francisco Standard’s Josh Koehn and Noah Baustin: "This negligence occurred as San Francisco gave more than $1 billion to 600-plus nonprofits last year, relying on them to help solve some of the city’s most intractable issues."

CAMPAIGN MODE

PORTER PARTY — Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)endorsed Porterfor Senate Thursday, backing a fellow progressive and former star student. Porter backed Warren’s 2020 presidential bid — a source of some controversy at the time, given Porter chose Warren over her fellow Californian and former appointer Kamala Harris.

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

STORE THE STORM — California to gradually increase Delta pumping, by POLITICO’s Camille von Kaenel: Pumps redirect Delta flows to a state water distribution system that irrigates 4 million acres of farmland, primarily in the San Joaquin Valley, and provides drinking water to more than 25 million people in central and Southern California.

— “What is causing the parade of storms battering California?” by the Los Angeles Times’ Paul Duginski: “The short answer is the location of the jet stream or storm track — a belt of strong winds high in the troposphere where airliners fly.”

FEELS LIKE IT — “Is California's drought over? Here’s what you need to know,” by CalMatter’s Alastair Bland: “Drought is in the eye of the beholder,” said Jeffrey Mount, senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California. “If you’re in San Francisco, and you rely on surface storage from Hetch Hetchy, this is great … But if you’re in a small town in the San Joaquin Valley, where massive pumping of groundwater has dried out your well, it will take successive years of rain like this to make a difference.”

— “California suddenly has so much snow. But is it enough?” by the Los Angeles Times’ Hayley Smith: “The state’s snow water equivalent — or the amount of water contained in the snow — was 226 percent of normal on Wednesday, marking a high for the date not seen in at least two decades.”

— “S.F. public defender to recuse Brooke Jenkins from Troy McAlister case,” the San Francisco Chronicle’s Rachel Swan: “In a motion filed Tuesday in San Francisco Superior Court, Deputy Public Defender Scott Grant, who represents McAlister, sought to disqualify Jenkins from the case following reports that, in 2021, she sent sensitive files — including McAlister’s rap sheet — to the personal email of prosecutor Donald Du Bain, shortly before the two of them left the District Attorney’s Office to join the recall campaign.”

BIDEN, HARRIS AND THE HILL

GAMBIT OR GANDER? — Progressives eagerly await their chance to harass McCarthy, by POLITICO’s Nicholas Wu: Republicans’ new rules allow just one member, regardless of party, to force a floor vote on deposing the speaker. And liberal Democrats, some of whom are part of the progressive “Squad,” are warning they have no problem with using the move against McCarthy, even if they don’t expect it to succeed.

SILICON VALLEYLAND

— “Instacart to pay $5M over allegations about worker benefits in S.F.,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Carolyn Said: “San Francisco alleged that Instacart had violated its ordinances covering health care and paid sick leave. Instacart did not admit any wrongdoing in agreeing to the settlement, which does not set a precedent.”

— “Uber drivers say they are struggling: ‘This is not sustainable’,” by The New York Times’ Winnie Hu and Ana Ley: “Bruce Schaller, a transportation consultant, said the app services make money by charging passengers as much as they can — and paying drivers as little as possible.”

— “Google tells Supreme Court: Don't undercut the internet,” by Axios’ Ashley Gold: “Gonzalez v. Google, the case that the Supreme Court will hear next month, will decide whether Section 230's protections apply to the algorithms that YouTube and other platforms use to select what content to show users.”

MEDIA MATTERS

— “News outlets seek access to evidence in Paul Pelosi attack,” by The Associated Press’ Olga R. Rodriguez: "During a Dec. 14 preliminary hearing, the San Francisco district attorney’s office introduced audio and video evidence against David DePape, the man accused of attacking Paul Pelosi. But it has refused to release the evidence to the media."

MIXTAPE

— “Artists hit by rains and flooding look to emergency relief funds,” by KQED’s Sarah Hotchkiss.

— “Here’s why Bay Area cities rank as the happiest in the U.S.,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Kellie Hwang.

— “It's not called Squaw Valley anymore. Here's the new name of this Fresno County town,” by The Fresno Bee’s Melissa Montalvo.

— “He spent 7 years in a small California jail. Now he's free, and wondering what's next, by The Sacramento Bee’s Marcus D. Smith.

— “Will Trevor Bauer play Major League Baseball again? What executives around the league are saying,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Mike DiGiovanna.

JOIN NEXT TUESDAY TO HEAR FROM MAYORS AROUND AMERICA: 2022 brought in a new class of mayors leading “majority minority” cities, reshaping who is at the nation’s power tables and what their priorities are. Join POLITICO to hear from local leaders on how they’re responding to being tested by unequal Covid-19 outcomes, upticks in hate crimes, homelessness, lack of affordable housing, inflation and a potential recession. REGISTER HERE.

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

Follow us on Twitter