The long road to the Senate

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Friday Feb 24,2023 02:10 pm
Jeremy B. White and Lara Korte’s must-read briefing on politics and government in the Golden State
Feb 24, 2023 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Lara Korte, Jeremy B. White, Ramon Castanos and Matthew Brown

THE BUZZ: It’s a marathon, folks, not a sprint.

The race to succeed Sen. Dianne Feinstein has accelerated rapidly in the last few weeks, but early polling shows that candidates have a lot of ground to cover before the primary next year — specifically, wooing a huge swath of undecideds.

Nearly four in 10 of the Democrat/NPP voters polled by U.C. Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies haven’t decided which of the candidates they’re backing. That’s not terribly surprising, given that it’s February in a non-election year and one of the candidates just launched a campaign three days ago, but it does give us a starting point for what is expected to be a drawn-out and contentious primary battle.

The early polling shows Southern California Reps. Adam Schiff and Katy Porter striding ahead of their Bay Area counterparts, with 22 and 20 percent support, respectively. Bringing up the rear is Rep. Barbara Lee with 6 percent, followed by Rep. Ro Khanna — who hasn’t officially made a decision yet — at 4 percent.

“The results give good reason to expect a relatively wide-open race,” IGS Co-Director Eric Schickler said. “Since so many voters are unfamiliar with the candidates, there is much potential for movement.”

It’s tough prospects for Lee, who consistently fell behind Schiff and Porter in various polling scenarios. In a three-candidate race, excluding Khanna, Schiff polled at 23 percent, Porter 20 percent, and Lee 8 percent — less than then 10 percent who selected “someone else.” Sixty-two percent of respondents said they had no opinion of Lee, compared to 39 percent for Schiff and 47 for Porter.

The numbers underscore a name recognition challenge for Lee. Even though she has served in Congress for 25 years and is revered among both her Oakland constituents and California Democrats writ large, her competition is tough. Schiff’s position leading the investigation into ties between Russia and the Trump campaign earned him national notoriety. The same could be said for Porter, whose incisive questioning of business execs and famous white board have made her a recognizable figure.

A few other toplines from the IGS poll:

  • Support for Lee is strongest among Bay Area voters (11 percent), but even there she trails behind Schiff (23 percent) and Porter (16 percent).
  • A plurality (47 percent) said it’s not important for their Senate candidate to be a woman or a person of color (53 percent). 
  • 45 percent said it’s “very important” for the candidate to be progressive, compared to 23 percent who said the same about moderates. 

BUENOS DÍAS, good Friday morning. Remember last year when California experienced what some called the “greatest September heat wave ever west of the Rockies”? Well the pendulum has swung the other way, and things are getting weird. For the first time ever, the National Weather Service Thursday issued a blizzard warning for San Diego.

Got a tip or story idea for California Playbook? Hit us up at jwhite@politico.com and lkorte@politico.com or follow us on Twitter @JeremyBWhite and @Lara_Korte

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “Preparing a case like this is just a lot of work, a lot of investigation, a lot of everything you can imagine. ...” San Francisco Deputy Public Defender Adam Lipson, who is representing alleged Paul Pelosi attacker David DePape. The trial is now likely to start in the summer. 

TWEET OF THE DAY:

Snow on the ground today in #santacruz

Twitter

WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

 

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TOP TALKERS

WEINSTEIN SENTENCED — Disgraced media mogul and convicted rapist Harvey Weinstein will likely spend the rest of his life behind bars after a Los Angeles judge sentenced him to 16 years in prison on Thursday. Weinstein, 70, is already serving a 23-year sentence in New York after he was convicted of rape and sexual assault there in 2020.

The sentencing closes a particularly painful chapter for first partner Jennifer Siebel Newsom, who accused Weinstein of raping her in 2005. She testified in his trial last fall, saying the experience “destroyed me emotionally.” Jurors ultimately deadlocked on Siebel Newsom’s allegations but convicted Weinstein on other charges.

In a passionate video statement after the sentencing, Siebel Newsom condemned the culture that “enables sexual predators.”

“The most important takeaway is we all have a role to play in healing this culture where violence against women is the norm,” she said.

Watch the six-minute video here.

CAMPAIGN MODE

— “Marianne Williamson confirms she will run for president in 2024,” by The Hill’s Caroline Vakil: “No other Democrats have officially waded into the race yet, making Williamson the first.”

— “New details shed light on FTX’s campaign contributions,” by The New York Times’ Matthew Goldstein and Benjamin Weiser: “Prosecutors said Mr. Bankman-Fried had wanted to keep his contributions to Republicans in the “dark,” so he relied on a former FTX executive with ties to political conservatives — identified as CC-2 — to make those donations.”

CALIFORNIA AND THE CAPITOL CORRIDOR

— “Gavin Newsom moved to close 4 California prisons. How many more can he shut down?,” by CalMatters’ Nigel Duara: “The potential closures signal a sea change in California criminal justice, representing the wind-down of the tough-on-crime policies that packed prisons in the 1990s and offering one of the few ways the state can cut costs in its $18 billion prison system.”

— “East Bay teacher on leave after complaints of antisemitism,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Jill Tucker: “A teacher at an East Bay high school remained in his classroom for two months after students complained he taught antisemitic conspiracy theories, with administrators doing nothing to counter the hate speech, according to students and teachers who spoke at a school board meeting last week.”

— “Amid well-drilling and pumping, calls grow for stronger California water regulation,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Ian James: “The push for stronger regulation comes as state lawmakers consider a bill that aims to clamp down on the frenzy of agricultural well-drilling in areas where groundwater supplies are considered to be in “critical overdraft.””

— Headline: “Pushback to Inland Empire warehouse boom spans California’s economic, racial divides” opines Jim Newton for CalMatters: “These communities in Riverside and San Bernardino are undeniably different but share a common foe. They are confronted by the Inland Empire’s warehouse boom, a galloping triumph of globalism that is streamlining the shipment of goods across America while hammering some of this region’s residents — regardless if they are well-to-do or struggling, English or Spanish-speaking, owners or renters. Some are at risk of being displaced.”

— “Conservative group sues Kaiser Permanente over transgender care,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Erin Allday: The lawsuit, filed in San Joaquin Superior Court in Manteca on Wednesday by the Center for American Liberty along with the Dhillon Law Group and LiMandri & Jonna LLP, states that Cole was diagnosed with gender dysphoria at age 9 and was treated at Kaiser clinics in the Bay Area between ages 13 and 17.”

 

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SILICON VALLEYLAND

— “Chip makers turn cutthroat in fight for share of federal money,” by The New York Times’ Ana Swanson and Don Clark: “One challenge for the Commerce Department will be to distribute the money widely enough across the nation to create several thriving “ecosystems” that can bring together raw materials, research and manufacturing capacity, but not undermine the effort by spreading it too thinly. With dozens of companies, universities and other players interested in snagging a share, the funding could go fast.”

HOLLYWOODLAND

— “Alec Baldwin pleads not guilty to involuntary manslaughter charges in 'Rust' shooting case,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Anousha Sakoui: “Baldwin agreed to conditions, including not consuming alcohol, not possessing weapons and only talking to witnesses for the purpose of completing the “Rust” movie. The witness lists filed with the court include figures such as director Joel Souza, who is set to resume his duties on the film when production resumes in Montana.”

MEDIA MATTERS

— “Bay Media CEO arrested for fraud; company officers face SEC charges,” by the San Francisco Chronicle’s Chase DiFeliciantonio: “The SEC said it had charged Watson, as well as the company’s former COO Samir Rao and former chief of staff Suzee Han, with duping investors out of around $50 million from roughly January 2019 to September 2021. Federal prosecutors said the three repeatedly lied about the company’s financial results, debts and audience size, as well as who else might be investing in the company.”

MIXTAPE

— “Cucamonga Peak hiker survives 200-foot fall from an icy trail,” by the Los Angeles Times’ Alexandra E. Petri.

— “Transgender disc golf athlete sues after being told she cannot compete in California event,” by The Sacramento Bee’s Sam Stanton. 

BIRTHDAYS

Bruce Andrews … Amazon’s Lindsay Hamilton

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

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