DRIVING THE DAY: The home stretch is upon us! Lawmakers in Sacramento reconvene today after a long Labor Day Weekend. But they must get back to business quickly — there’s less than two weeks left in the legislative calendar. Lawmakers have until Sept. 14 to decide the fate of hundreds of bills. Both chambers will only hold floor sessions over the next 10 days. Be sure to stockpile plenty of snacks and coffee for the marathon days ahead. THE BUZZ — North Coast Sen. Mike McGuire’s rise to be the next leader of the California Senate happened so quickly — and with so little public drama — that Capitol insiders were shaken by the low-key tone of it all. McGuire’s elevation will have significant political and policy implications, shifts that are still coming into focus a week after the Democratic caucus voted to name him pro tem designee. He will succeed outgoing Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins, the San Diego Democrat who’s termed out next year. The timing of the transition remains TBD, though many expect the handoff will happen in early 2024. Here are five key takeaways: — DIVERSITY DILEMMA: McGuire is a straight white male, replacing a woman — and the first openly gay leader of the Senate — at a time of increased pressure to diversify state government. With McGuire as pro tem, all four leaders in the Legislature on both the Democratic and Republican sides will be men, even as the number of women lawmakers continues to grow. The other contenders for the pro tem position were women, people of color or LGBTQ people. They included Monique Limón, María Elena Durazo, Lena Gonzalez and John Laird. McGuire will likely face pressure to diversify his leadership team. The coalition that delivered his victory was largely driven by a group of moderate, white senators. Atkins said she has “dual feelings” about the diversity question because, while she would have wanted a woman to replace her in a hypothetical world, she said McGuire has done the hard work to earn the support of a majority of a diverse caucus. Her advice to him: “Instead of trying to solve every problem, take a step back and listen. You don’t need to step in, you need to step back.” — RURAL CALIFORNIA RISES: The days of Los Angeles and San Francisco throwing their weight around in the Legislature are over — at least for now. McGurie and new Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas both hail from more rural areas of the state (Rivas is from Hollister.). Lawmakers outside of the population centers have often complained about being overshadowed by California’s power centers. Having both McGuire and Rivas at the helm elevates the priorities of rural California, including policies to address drought and flood control, the plight of farmworkers and wildfire preparation. — LIEUTENANTS IN THE WINGS: McGuire’s success isn’t just a testament to his political acumen. He had a loyal core of lieutenants who worked the phones to line up members in the days before the caucus vote. Two of his most top deputies were Sens. Bill Dodd and Angelique Ashby. Dodd, a Napa Democrat who’s termed out next year, has long been a close ally of McGuire, who represents a neighboring Wine Country district. But Ashby’s crucial role has been a source of buzz around the Capitol. A freshman Democrat from Sacramento, Ashby has quickly become an influential player in the upper chamber. And speculation is already swirling about whether she will fill a key role in McGuire’s leadership team. — THE NEXT CAMPAIGN: Speaking of aspirations, the campaign over McGuire’s replacement as pro tem is effectively underway — months before he’s even sworn in. That’s because his tenure will be relatively brief. McGuire is termed out in 2026, so he will serve no more than 2 ½ years as pro tem. That’s less than half of Atkins’ tenure. Expect rumblings about the next shadow campaign for pro tem to loom during much of the McGuire era. The likely contenders include Ashby, Gonzalez, Limón and Sen. Steve Padilla. If those potential contenders learn one thing from McGuire’s playbook, it’s that moving fast and decisively is key to securing votes early on. — LEADERSHIP STYLE: Lobbyists or staffers don’t expect McGuire’s leadership to differ drastically from Atkins’ in terms of his ideological leanings or stylistic approach. The left-wing Courage California gives both senators an “A+” rating, though they tend to be more moderate than some of the caucus’ most progressive members. Still, every leader has their favorite causes. And while Atkins was especially animated by affordable housing and reproductive rights, McGuire is likely to focus his energies on pet issues such as stronger regulation of investor-owned utilities like PG&E, expanding wildfire prevention efforts or limiting offshore oil drilling.
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