THE BUZZ: WAITING GAME — Campaign consultants across California have spent the last few days fixating on one question: Will Sen. Laphonza Butler run for the seat, or won’t she? Butler, who was sworn in to the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, hasn’t said publicly if she plans to seek a full term next year. Gov. Gavin Newsom appointed her to fill the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s former seat. If Butler wants to keep the job beyond November 2024, she would have to almost immediately jump into a crowded primary that includes three Democratic House members: Barbara Lee, Adam Schiff and Katie Porter. The new senator, a longtime Democratic organizer who has worked as a labor leader and a corporate consultant, wasn’t expected to make an announcement until after Feinstein’s funeral services Thursday. That didn’t stop Newsom from gushing to reporters this week about what an “incredible” senator Butler will make given her deep advocacy roots and relative youth, at 44. His praise fueled speculation about Butler’s plans. Despite his earlier vow to appoint an interim senator if Feinstein died in office, Newsom said he appointed Butler without any preconditions. So what if Butler runs in 2024? What factors could work in her favor — and what could work to her disadvantage? POLITICO’s California team huddled to comprise a list of key aspects to watch. HER POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES: 1. INCUMBENCY: It helps to have the title “U.S. Senator” next to your name on the ballot and in campaign advertisements. Butler, though she just took office, would surely benefit from this traditional perk. The title will also boost her name ID among California voters, especially those less-engaged voters who might otherwise have nothing to go on. 2. FUNDRAISING NETWORK: Butler was most recently the president of EMILY’s List, a fundraising giant that works to elect Democratic women who support abortion rights. That connection could help Butler immediately tap into a national fundraising network — one she would need to compete with primary opponents who’ve been raising money for months. Butler was also previously a prominent labor leader with the Service Employees International Union, and served as president of SEIU California. That could provide her another potential fundraising network and make her a contender for the union’s coveted endorsement. 3. LIFE STORY AND IDENTITY: Voters like a compelling life story. Butler has one. She was born in Mississippi, and her mother held down multiple jobs to provide for the family while caring for Butler’s ailing father, who died when she was 16. Butler got her start in politics working with organized labor, fighting for nurses, janitors and hospital workers across the Northeast. Her appointment to the Senate is also historic for another reason: She is the first LGBTQ person of color to serve in the upper chamber. Her identity as a Black lesbian and her young age could be attractive to Democratic voters in such a diverse state. As Newsom emphasized, Butler is younger than the vast majority of her colleagues in the Senate, where the average age was over 65 prior to her arrival. That could be a significant plus for voters frustrated over what many see as a gerontocracy on Capitol Hill. HER POTENTIAL DISADVANTAGES: 1. NAME ID: Butler has never held elected office and has far less name recognition than the candidates already in the race. That’s especially true when she’s compared to Schiff and Porter, who each have a national base of progressive followers. Butler would have little time to build her brand among voters before the March 5 primary. Five months is an extremely tight window to break through in a state with 39 million people and multiple large media markets. 2. CROWDED BALLOT: The primary between Schiff, Porter and Lee is already fiercely competitive. Having a fourth prominent Democrat could increase the odds that a Republican candidate clinches a top-two spot to advance to the November runoff. Steve Garvey, a former LA Dodgers star, is considering running. He could conceivably squeak through with GOP votes alone, especially if Democrats are more divided. That outcome could anger some party leaders, who’d prefer to have two Democrats in the final race. Some have already expressed frustration with the notion that Butler could run. Rep. John Garamendi told CNN Tuesday that it would “be terribly unfair” for Butler to run after being “air dropped” into an active race. 3. PELOSI’S ENDORSEMENT: Schiff has the most momentum in the race. He has the lead in several recent polls, has raised significantly more money and has strong name recognition. Another major boost in Schiff’s favor: He has the spirited endorsement of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi. There is perhaps no more coveted nod in California Democratic circles. Beyond the money and support Pelosi brings, Newsom and other Democrats might be reluctant to endorse Butler if it could anger Pelosi, one of the most prominent figures in modern party history. GOOD MORNING. It’s Friday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. PLAYBOOK TIP LINE — Are you aware of any more seismic moves happening this week in California politics? Give us a ring or drop us a line. Now you can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on Twitter —@DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.
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