Four dynamics that’ll define Sactown in 2024

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Wednesday Jan 03,2024 01:57 pm
Presented by Rebuild SoCal Partnership: Inside the Golden State political arena
Jan 03, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO California Playbook

By Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte

Presented by

Rebuild SoCal Partnership

LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 14: California Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas speaks on stage at the Los Angeles Equality Awards at The Westin Bonaventure Rooftop on October 14, 2023 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Rich Polk/Getty Images for Equality California)

California Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas, D-Hollister. | Getty Images for Equality California

THE BUZZ: CLOCKING IN — Lawmakers return to the California Capitol today for an annual session that will be defined by a new era of leadership in both the state Assembly and Senate.

It’s Speaker Robert Rivas’ first full year leading the Assembly, and Sen. Mike McGuire will soon succeed Senate President Pro Tem Toni Atkins in the upper chamber.

But don’t expect much of a honeymoon period.

Democratic lawmakers will have to quickly come to terms with a gigantic budget deficit, estimated at $68 billion. The state’s March 5 primary election is also right around the corner, and numerous legislators are also auditioning for higher office.

Here are four dynamics that POLITICO’s California team will be watching in the year ahead:

FISCAL PROBLEMS: The projected deficit is the state’s largest since the Great Recession, and Sacramento insiders have been fretting for weeks about the depth of spending cuts that could be required.

Few staffers or lawmakers (due to term limits) have been around long enough to have seen cuts of that scale — which could put many special interests on the chopping block after years of budget surpluses.

“It will be pretty hot before we know it,” said Andrew Acosta, a Democratic consultant who’s worked on numerous legislative and congressional campaigns. “You’ll see groups try to protect their turf. They were probably on offense a couple of years ago because we had money. Now, they’re on defense.”

Gov. Gavin Newsom is expected to release his plan to balance the budget next week. Lawmakers will be negotiating the details with the governor as they navigate a significant power shift.

RIVAS IN THE HOUSE: Rivas became speaker six months ago, but he's had little time to make an imprint, as he was sworn in near the end of the session. He still hasn’t articulated his full legislative agenda.

But he has been making moves in recent months, picking his new leadership team and shuffling committee chairs. He also showed his ability to forge deals when he helped build support for a bill to raise the minimum wage for health care workers and another to require large corporations to report carbon emissions.

Still, many questions remain about what kind of leader Rivas will be. How much power will he give committee chairs? What spending programs will he go to the mat for?

As our colleague Jeremy B. White reports for POLITICO Pro today, Rivas could have a long tenure if he’s able to hold together a large and fractured Democratic caucus. He isn’t termed out until 2030.

SENATE SUCCESSION: The leadership handoff in the Senate — slated for Feb. 5 — will have significant ripple effects.

McGuire, a close ally of outgoing Pro Tem Atkins, must decide to what extent he wants to shuffle committee chairs and build his own leadership team mid-year. Many Capitol insiders are questioning if he will leave powerful committee heads in place or supplant some with close allies, such as Sens. Angelique Ashby or Anna Caballero.

The incoming pro tem could face pressure to avoid making too many dramatic changes, especially with fiscal committees, as the state navigates a tough budget.

“There’s a lot of unknown in addition to your traditional unknown,” said Kristina Bas Hamilton, a lobbyist who works with labor and progressive groups. “‘There’s definitely an understanding that there will be a learning curve.”

AI SHOWDOWN — The other big fight shaping up this year: how to regulate artificial intelligence. Tech and labor interests will face off over the use and development of AI in a battle that’s sure to be one for the history books.

As we reported last year, lawmakers could consider upwards of a dozen bills on regulating the fast-moving technology. Labor groups are keen on setting up guardrails to stave off the growing rate of job replacement, and the giants of Silicon Valley want to ensure any new laws don’t stifle innovation.

With Congress notably absent on the AI front, any legislation California passes has the potential to set the tone for the industry’s national standards.

We’re monitoring a handful of bills from Democrats on this front, including a multi-year effort by the new Assembly Privacy Chair Rebecca Bauer-Kahan to regulate automated decision making tools and a measure from Assemblymember Gail Pellerin that would ban the use of AI in political communication, including mailers, robo calls and video advertisements.

State Sen. Scott Wiener is also preparing to introduce more details on the wide-ranging AI framework he proposed late last year.

GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. 

PLAYBOOK TIP LINE — What are you hearing around the halls of the Legislature? Give us a ring or drop us a line.

Now you can text us at ‪916-562-0685‬‪ — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts now. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on Twitter —@DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte

WHERE’S GAVIN? In Los Angeles to kick off the campaign for Proposition 1, a ballot measure to fund mental health treatment. He'll also make a "major science and technology announcement" in LA County with representatives from Google and the University of California.

A message from Rebuild SoCal Partnership:

In The High Cost of Underinvestment the Rebuild SoCal Partnership assesses the state of infrastructure in Southern California and sheds light on infrastructure's interconnected regional challenges. Our aging systems demand immediate attention and action to ensure the well-being of our communities and sustain economic growth. Learn more and download the report at RebuildSoCal.org/2024Report.

 
FOR GOOD MEASURE

Nothing distinguishes policymaking in California like its lively realm of ballot-measure campaigns. As part of POLITICO’s ongoing California expansion, we are embarking on an initiative of our own — to cover this sphere with the depth and sustained attention it deserves.

We are building a team of journalists dedicated solely to covering ballot measures at all levels, and are brimming with ideas for how to tell fresh stories about the strategies, policy ideas, personalities, and money behind them. Expect scoops, analysis, features and investigations across our POLITICO California platforms, including here under the “For Good Measure” banner in our California Playbook editions.

Republican Assembly member Bill Essayli, of Riverside, speaks on a bill before the Assembly at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif., Thursday, June 1, 2023. (AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

Republican Assembly member Bill Essayli, R-Corona. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP Photo

HAPPENING TODAY — Far-right activists are expected to gather on the west steps of the Capitol this afternoon to announce a lawsuit against Democratic Attorney General Rob Bonta over the summary and title language he issued for a ballot measure regarding transgender youth.

The initiative is the result of a failed campaign in the Legislature that would have required K-12 schools to notify parents when a student starts using a different name or pronoun. That bill, carried by Republican Assemblymember Bill Essayli, died last year without so much as a hearing.

Now, the group Protect Kids California is pushing a three-part initiative that includes the parental notification mandate. It would also restrict trans students’ participation in girls’ sports and ban health care professionals from providing gender-affirming care to minors, regardless of parental consent.

Essayli is among the supporters of the initiatives expected to speak today, along with leaders of the anti-vaccination group known as the Freedom Angels.

 

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CASH DASH

— Assemblymember Pilar Schiavo raised more than $1 million through the end of 2023 to defend her contested Los Angeles seat — and in a sign of AD-40’s priority status, more than $350,000 came from dozens of fellow Assembly Democrats.

— San Diego Republican Carl DeMaio reports raising $951,000 in the first 24 days of his campaign for Assembly District 75, currently represented by Republican Marie Waldron, who is termed out this year.

— Sunnyvale Vice Mayor Omar Din reports raising $287,000 through the end of 2023 in his race for Assembly District 26, now represented by Evan Low, a Democrat who is running for Congress.

— San Francisco nonprofit executive Daniel Lurie reports raising nearly $520,000 through the end of 2023 in his race for mayor; he’s challenging incumbent SF Mayor London Breed.

TOP TALKERS

EXODUS: Even among Californians with graduate or professional degrees, more are leaving the state than entering, according to a new analysis of Census data. (The San Francisco Chronicle)

SURF’S UP: Heavy storms washed ashore a WWII-era bomb in Santa Cruz, authorities report. (The Sacramento Bee)

WEST COAST WOES: New California regulations are partially to blame for an extra $3.5 billion to $4 billion in fourth-quarter charges, oil giant Chevron says. (The Wall Street Journal)

A message from Rebuild SoCal Partnership:

Southern California's infrastructure influences economic growth, health, safety, and overall quality of life. Yet, disinvestment, aging, and extreme conditions challenge its resilience, impacting communities inequitably. It’s time to invest robust funding into future infrastructure development and maintenance.

Download Rebuild SoCal’s 2024 Infrastructure Report Today!

About Rebuild SoCal Partnership
The Rebuild SoCal Partnership consists of 2,750 contractors throughout Southern California that represent more than 90,000 union workers. Rebuild is dedicated to working with elected officials and educating the public on the continued need for essential infrastructure funding, including airports, bridges, ports, rail, roads, and water projects.

 
PLAYBOOKERS

PUT A RING ON IT — Rep. Kevin Kiley (R-Calif.) married Chelsee Gardner during the holiday recess. Congrats!

BIRTHDAYS — Rep. Katie Porter (D-Calif.) … Noam Levey (was Tuesday): Gabrielle Carteris … POLITICO’s Mike Zapler … Meta’s Marc Johnson

CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO California has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Golden State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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