Who's winning (and losing) California's money game

From: POLITICO California Playbook - Thursday Feb 01,2024 02:02 pm
Presented by Amazon: Inside the Golden State political arena
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POLITICO California Playbook

By Melanie Mason, Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte

Presented by

Amazon

Assemblymember Vince Fong, R-Bakersfield, at the Capitol in Sacramento, Calif.

Assemblymember Vince Fong, R-Bakersfield, at the Capitol Thursday, May 18, 2017, in Sacramento, Calif. | Rich Pedroncelli/AP

THE BUZZ — It’s the most wonderful time of the year: when candidates have to disclose who gave them money, and what they spent it on.

Last night's federal campaign filing deadline gave us new insights into key contests — including a first look at the numbers for Steve Garvey. The former baseball star-turned-Republican Senate candidate reported raising $610,000 in the last quarter of 2023, ending the year with $308,000 cash on hand.

It's nowhere close to Reps. Adam Schiff and Katie Porter, but maybe it doesn’t need to be to squeak by Porter and nab the second spot for the runoff.

There is one title the baseball MVP can claim: best funded Republican Senate candidate. His main competition on the right, perennial candidate Eric Early, brought in $265,000 in the last quarter, and has $140,000 in the bank.

We took the liberty of bestowing some other titles on California’s political hopefuls:

THE WELL-CONNECTED ROOKIE — It helps to have allies in elevated places, as Assemblymember Vince Fong is learning. As he runs to succeed ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Fong has scored an endorsement from McCarthy and collected cash from the former speaker’s friends. PACs tied to McCarthy’s Republican backers and former lieutenants in the House channeled tens of thousands to Fong.

THE EAGER BEAVER — Rep. Ro Khanna has passed on a couple of U.S. Senate runs, deciding to back Rep. Barbara Lee this cycle, but he’s certainly piling up money like someone with ambitions beyond a safe blue House seat. The Silicon Valley Democrat reported an astonishing $9.4 million on hand and plowed $125,000 into building his email list.

DEEPEST POCKETS Gil Cisneros’ lottery jackpot win 14 years ago is the gift that keeps on giving to his political ambitions. Cisneros, a Democrat, is yet again tapping into his personal wealth to fund a congressional bid. Last quarter, he loaned himself $1.8 million — his total for the cycle is well north of $2 million — in his intraparty battle to succeed Rep. Grace Napolitano in a safe blue seat. His largesse surpasses that of other notable self-funders elsewhere in California, such as former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides, who has now seeded his bid to oust Republican Rep. Mike Garcia with more than $1 million since he launched his campaign; Democrat Ben Savage (yes, of Boy Meets World fame), whose $200,000 loan this quarter pushed his total investment in his race for Schiff’s House seat to seven-figures; and Margarita Wilkinson, a Republican who put in $150,000 this quarter (and nearly $1 million overall) for her bid to unseat Democratic Rep. Mike Levin.

FOXIEST DEMOCRATS — FOX Corporation’s PAC donated several thousand dollars to a few California Democrats, including Reps. Sydney Kamlager-Dove, Doris Matsui, Jim Costa and Nanette Barragán.

BIGGEST UNDERACHIEVER — Kim Nguyen-Peñaloza seems tailor-made to take on GOP Rep. Michelle Steel in Orange County (at least, so says the LA Times editorial board). But she has consistently been hamstrung by lackluster fundraising, causing national Democrats to consider other options. This quarter was no exception; she brought in just $75,000. By comparison, her main Democratic rival, Derek Tran, raised north of $500,000. Steel also raised around half a million dollars, plus floated herself several hundred thousands in loans.

BIGGEST OVERACHIEVER — Will Rollins not only pulled in a million-dollar haul this quarter, the Democratic challenger outpaced incumbent Rep. Ken Calvert by roughly $300,000 in contributions. The two entered 2024 essentially at a draw when it came to cash on hand. More impressive, Rollins didn’t dig into his own pockets to loan his campaign dough and boost his totals.

With help from Jeremy B. White

GOOD MORNING. Happy Thursday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook.

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WHERE’S GAVIN? Nothing official announced.

 

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CAMPAIGN YEAR

Adam Schiff, Katie Porter, Steve Garvey participate in the first California Senate debate at Bovard Auditorium.

(Left to right) Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Steve Garvey participate in the first California Senate debate at Bovard Auditorium at the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, on Jan. 22, 2024. | Jenna Schoenefeld for POLITICO

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: NEW SENATE POLL — The latest poll in the race for the open California Senate seat shows Schiff with a commanding lead ahead of the March 5 primary, Garvey locked in a dead heat for second place with Porter, and Lee trailing her three major opponents.

The poll was exclusively shared with POLITICO and conducted by researchers at USC, CSU Long Beach and Cal Poly Pomona. Lead pollster Christian Grose, a political science professor, said Garvey appears to be struggling to consolidate support among some GOP voters, which “might help Porter squeak through.”

Read more about it here.

The poll’s findings included some other juicy highlights:

  • Trump sweep: Former President Donald Trump remains on track to sweep all of California’s delegates in the Republican presidential primary — with the support of 66 percent of likely voters, compared with 28 percent support for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley.
  • Warning sign for Biden: More than half of California voters said they’d vote for President Joe Biden in November, but the president’s current support level is about 10 percentage points lower than the portion of Californians who voted for him in 2020.
  • Trouble for Gascón: Just 15 percent of likely voters polled in Los Angeles County said they'll back incumbent District Attorney George Gascón in the primary, and more than half disapproved of the progressive DA’s performance. Grose, the pollster, said that figure was “one of the worst I’ve ever seen for an incumbent.”
  • Magic mushrooms: A ballot initiative to legalize recreational use of psychedelic mushrooms has already fizzled this year, but voters aren’t sold on the idea anyway: 48 percent said they opposed legalization while only 35 percent are in favor of it.
  • Drilling referendum: Voters — a whopping 71 percent — support keeping a California law that would prohibit oil and gas drilling near homes, schools and other sensitive sites.
  • Gay marriage: Californians are ready to repeal the vestiges of Prop 8 — a ban that state voters passed in 2008 — from the California constitution. While same-sex marriage is now legal, 73 percent of voters support a constitutional amendment to remove Prop 8’s zombie text.
 

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Top Talkers

— Sacramento mayoral candidates clashed on where to put homeless shelters during last night’s debate. (The Sacramento Bee)

San Francisco police are investigating a mailer sent to three supervisors, wishing them “a slow and painful death for you and your loved ones.” The mailer was an apparent reference to a social media post by Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan, which used similar language. Tan has apologized, but Board of Supervisors President Aaron Peskin, who received one of the mailers, said he plans to introduce legislation that would create fines for people who make death threats against elected officials in the city. (San Francisco Chronicle)

U.S. District Judge Roger Benitez has barred the state from enforcing another significant gun-safety law, striking down a requirement that people buying ammo submit to a background check. Attorney General Rob Bonta said he plans to appeal, and Newsom called Benitez a “fanatic judge.” (Los Angeles Times)

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

TRANSITIONS — CSU Chancellor Mildred García has appointed Greg Saks as vice chancellor over the Division of External Relations and Communications. He will start the new role on Feb. 12.

BIRTHDAYS — Rep. Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) … Michael KivesAlex Luzi (was Wednesday): Megan Ellison...

 

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CALIFORNIA POLICY IS ALWAYS CHANGING: Know your next move. From Sacramento to Silicon Valley, POLITICO California Pro provides policy professionals with the in-depth reporting and tools they need to get ahead of policy trends and political developments shaping the Golden State. To learn more about the exclusive insight and analysis this -only service offers, click here.

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