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Gary Fineout's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Election Day. SITUATIONAL AWARENESS — The latest forecast has Nicole continuing to strengthen and may hit Florida’s Atlantic Coast as a hurricane sometime on Wednesday. One day more — All signs point to a successful day for Florida Republicans, driven at the top by Gov. Ron DeSantis and a campaign machine that raised and spent tens of millions of dollars and was able to swamp Democrats. A substantial victory for Republicans — and proof that Florida is now a red state — will serve as a likely catalyst for a DeSantis run for president in 2024. But here’s some key questions to consider as election results pour in tonight: Will the GOP domination go beyond just Miami-Dade? — Much speculation has focused on Republicans flipping Miami-Dade — where Hillary Clinton crushed Donald Trump in 2016. DeSantis is seeking to be the first GOP governor to win Miami-Dade since Miami resident Jeb Bush did it during his 2002 reelection. But it’s clear that the DeSantis team is thinking beyond Miami-Dade: The governor took time to visit supposed Democratic strongholds such as Palm Beach County and Orange County the day before the election. That’s a signal the campaign is showing optimism that it could flip additional blue counties. How do Democratic incumbents fare? — The main attraction for 2022 has been the governor’s race as well as the matchup between Sen. Marco Rubio and Rep. Val Demings. But many Democrats — who are at a significant financial and operational disadvantage — may also find themselves swept out of office. The state Senate battles in north Florida with Loranne Ausley and Janet Cruz are among those that should be closely watched. But there other well-known Democrats, such as Orlando-based state Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith — who Republicans are looking to take out as well. Does Florida help Republicans pick up the U.S. House? — DeSantis muscled a redistricting map through this year that could see the GOP pick up as many as four additional House seats in the state. Two seats definitely on the radar: Florida’s 13th Congressional District, where polls have shown a tight battle between Democrat Eric Lynn and Anna Paulina Luna, and Florida’s 27th Congressional District, a contest between Rep. María Elvira Salazar and state Sen. Annette Taddeo. A GOP surge in Miami-Dade may doom Taddeo’s effort to knock out the GOP incumbent. A Lynn victory over Luna would likely stop Republicans from a four-seat pickup. How big a gap will there be between DeSantis and other Republicans? — Multiple polls put DeSantis' victory over Charlie Crist in double-digit territory. But will that sway translate into significant margins for other Republicans on the ballot. Rubio likewise has been favored to win, but polls have suggested he will not get the type of support that DeSantis is expected to get. And what about those Republicans who have a little bit of distance from DeSantis, such as GOP agriculture commissioner nominee Wilton Simpson? Who gets the credit? — Former President Donald Trump in recent statements and speeches has asserted that he is responsible for remaking Florida into a red state after his wins here in 2016 and 2020, in addition to his endorsement of DeSantis for governor in 2018. But DeSantis world counters that it was the governor's policies on Covid-19 and other issues, as well as a concentrated push on voter registration, that remade the state. Let the debate begin. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis is scheduled to be at the Tampa Convention Center for his election night celebration. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | NOV. 15 APPEARS TO BE THE DAY — “ At his last midterm rally of 2022, Trump offers a save-the-date for his 2024 plans ,” by The New York Times’ Michael Bender: “In a windy oration on a chilly airport tarmac outside Dayton, Mr. Trump spent the vast majority of his time talking about his four years as president, the multiple investigations he has survived, the handful of new investigations he is now facing, and, once again, a drawn-out tease about his plan to probably-potentially-in-all-likelihood announce a third campaign for president. This time, however, he named the date and place. ‘I’m going to be making a very big announcement on Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,’ he said in the final minutes of his 100-minute speech.” — Biden’s and Trump’s performances on the 2022 trail sow doubts about 2024 , by POLITICO’s Jonathan Martin | 
Former President Donald Trump dances after he finished speaking at a campaign rally in support of the campaign of Ohio Senate candidate JD Vance at Wright Bros. Aero Inc. at Dayton International Airport on Monday, Nov. 7, 2022, in Vandalia, Ohio. | Michael Conroy/AP Photo | WATCHING THE DETECTIVES — Two years ago, the Department of Justice said it was going to monitor polling places in six Florida counties on Election Day. On Monday, the DOJ announced it would monitor three counties — Broward, Miami-Dade and Palm Beach — during this year’s election for compliance with federal voting laws. That announcement drew a letter from Department of State General Counsel Brad McVay that said Florida law prohibits DOJ employees from entering any polling place or polling room. McVay also questioned the need for DOJ monitors, saying “none of the counties are currently subject to any election-related federal consent decrees” or accused of any other election law violations. McVay also told federal authorities the state would send its own monitors to make sure federal authorities were not interfering with the voting process. FINAL PUSH — “ From two South Florida stages, candidates for governor, U.S. Senate make closing pitches ,” by Miami Herald’s Bianca Padró Ocasio and Grethel Aguila: “The top four candidates on Floridians’ ballots gave their closing message to voters on Monday evening in South Florida, a region that has received outsized attention from both parties in an election that Republicans view as their first opportunity to flip Miami-Dade County in two decades. From deep-red Hialeah, Gov. Ron DeSantis appeared with U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and other Florida Republicans in front of a few hundred voters, while his Democratic opponent Charlie Crist campaigned with Senate candidate U.S. Rep. Val Demings in neighboring Broward County, a Democratic stronghold. Going into Election Day, Republicans held an advantage over Democrats in both voter registration numbers and ballots cast.” FINAL PUSH PART 2 — “ Crist urges supporters at Melbourne rally to get out the vote to beat DeSantis ,” by Florida Today’s Dave Berman: “Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist urged his supporters during a Melbourne campaign stop Monday to get their friends and neighbors out to the polls, to help him defeat incumbent Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis on Tuesday. ‘We all know about Gov. DeSantis. We know that we need better and deserve better,’ Crist said during a campaign speech near Melbourne City Hall attended by about 150 people. ‘The choice is for Charlie for change.’” — “ Gov. DeSantis faces voters in a changing Florida ,” by Associated Press’ Anthony Izaguirre — “ Gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist urges people to vote, criticizes incumbent in SLC ,” by Treasure Coast Newspapers Will Greenlee HMM — “ Trump backs off after hurling ‘Ron DeSanctimonious’ insult at Florida governor ,” by CBS Miami’s Jim DeFede: “In an interview with CBS News Miami, Trump was asked what he meant by the sobriquet Ron DeSanctimonious and if he considered the Florida governor ungrateful for the help Trump provided him four years ago. ‘Well, let's see what happens,’ Trump said. ‘But in the meantime, we hope he gets elected. And you know, I've always had a very good relationship with him. But let's see what happens.’ According to one Trump advisor, the former president has been using the "Ron DeSanctimonious" nickname in private for weeks before finally unveiling it at the rally in Pennsylvania.” MEANWHILE — Democratic nominee for governor Charlie Crist tried to use the looming feud between Trump and DeSantis in a last-minute digital ad his campaign launched on Tuesday. The ad titled “Rift” includes footage of Trump insulting DeSantis and questions why voters should keep supporting DeSantis. In a statement, Crist spokesperson Samantha Ramirez said “Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump are cut from the same cloth — selfish leaders who only care about themselves, not the people. If Ron DeSantis wants to waste his time battling the former president, that's his choice. But if Trump doesn’t even have Ron’s back, why should anyone?” | 
Charlie Crist, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate for Florida, greets supporters. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images | FALLOUT — “ Black voters in Florida express fear, confusion as DeSantis election laws kick in ,” by Washington Post’s Lori Rozsa: “Tuesday will mark the first major election in Florida since the legislature pushed through changes affecting voting in the Sunshine State. Voter advocates say the laws disproportionately affect Black voters — making it harder for many to vote — and have created an environment of confusion and fear. Voters can deliver ballots for immediate family members — but there are new forms to fill out, and some, like Harriel, worry that even a small mistake could result in a fine or an arrest. It is now illegal to turn in more than two ballots that don’t belong to a close relative. There are new restrictions for organizations that help register voters.” — “ Partisan poll-watchers in Florida on guard to thwart voter suppression, ‘Stop the Steal ,’” by Tallahassee Democrat’s James Call VOTERS ARE VOTING — Nearly 4.8 million people have voted ahead of the Nov. 8 election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Nearly 2.53 million people have voted by mail so far. Of those, 1,086,518 have come from registered Democrats and 923,733 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are more than 1.8 million mail ballots that have been requested but not yet returned. Of those, more than 793,000 are held by Democrats and nearly 514,000 are with Republicans. More than 2.26 million people have voted early. That includes 1,154,697 Republicans and 671,895 Democrats. The totals show that more than 320,000 more Republicans have voted than Democrats. — “ Florida GOP looks to seize advantage of redrawn House maps ,” by The Associated Press’ Curt Anderson — “ Rent-control advocates, foes keep up campaigns despite court ruling nullifying measure ,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Stephen Hudak — “ Charlie Crist vs. Ron DeSantis: How months of digs and dubious claims size up ,” by Politifact’s Yacob Reyes — “ Fate of the Senate runs through Loranne Ausley, Corey Simon race in SD 3 ,” by Florida Politics’ Renzo Downey — “ Florida GOP has legislative supermajorities within sight in this year’s elections ,” by Florida Phoenix’s Michael Moline — “ Florida election 2022: How candidates stand on key issues ,” by Orlando Sentinel — “ María Elvira Salazar, Annette Taddeo battle for South Florida’s most flappable congressional seat ,” by Florida Politics’ Jesse Scheckner
| | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | UNWELCOME VISITOR — “ Subtropical Storm Nicole puts part of South Florida under tropical storm warning and hurricane watch ,” by South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Robin Webb and Angie DiMichele: “South Florida may not come through the end of the 2022 hurricane season without a direct hit as a rare November storm heads for the state’s east coast. The threat from potential Hurricane Nicole increased Monday, with the possibility of strong winds, rising waters and flooding rains reaching parts of South Florida. And forecasters said Monday night that ‘there is more than the usual amount of uncertainty in the intensity forecast.’ — “ Potential Hurricane Nicole could threaten Artemis I rocket on launch pad, ” by Orlando Sentinel’s Richard Tribou ADD IT UP — “ US: Federal aid to Florida for Hurricane Ian tops $2B ,” by The Associated Press’ Chris Megerian: “Federal aid to Florida for recovery from Hurricane Ian has topped the $2 billion mark, Biden administration officials announced Monday, one day before the midterm elections. Most of the money was provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. About $710 million went directly to households, and another $322 million went to the state. The U.S. Small Business Administration furnished $631 million in disaster loans, and the National Flood Insurance Program has paid out $351 million in claims. ‘When I visited Florida in the wake of Hurricane Ian, I said we would be there as long as it takes to rebuild,’ President Joe Biden said in a statement. ‘That is what we’re doing.’”
| | | | DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | BACK AGAIN — ‘Don’t Say Gay’ lawsuit against Florida school districts gets refiled in federal court , by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury: A group of parents, students and advocacy organizations have revived their legal fight over Florida’s contentious new parental rights law, labeled “Don’t Say Gay” by its opponents, that restricts how lessons on sexual identity and gender orientation can be taught in schools. After their original lawsuit was dismissed last month in federal court, the group filed a new complaint last week that now targets the state Board of Education on top of local school boards. The lawsuit claims that the new law, one of the most controversial proposals of 2022 that is now being enacted across the state, violates the group’s freedom of speech covered by the First Amendment, as well as due process and equal protection rights. ‘THE LEFT HAND ISN’T TALKING TO THE RIGHT HAND’ — “ DeSantis’ voter fraud suspect was issued new voter ID ,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Lawrence Mower: “Gov. Ron DeSantis publicly touted the arrests of about 20 people he said registered and voted illegally in 2020. But months later, at least two of the people arrested are still on Florida’s voter rolls. Nathaniel Singleton, who is ineligible to vote because of a second-degree murder conviction, was issued a new voter ID card by Broward County’s elections supervisor on Sept. 13, nearly a month after DeSantis held a high-profile news conference touting his arrest. And Romona Oliver, also ineligible because of a second-degree murder conviction, is still on the rolls, a fact that went unnoticed by DeSantis’ administration even though it arrested her nearly three months after she registered.” PUSHING BACK — Lawyers for Gov. Ron DeSantis and other state officials filed their official response Monday to state Sen. Jason Pizzo’s lawsuit contending that the governor’s migrant relocation program should be halted because it flouts state laws regarding the budget. The suit also asserts that a newly enacted law designed to prevent the transport of undocumented migrants into Florida was violated. Pizzo filed the lawsuit after the state flew nearly 50 migrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard. Attorneys for the governor, in their motion to dismiss, argue that the lawsuit should be thrown for several reasons, including that Pizzo lacks any standing to challenge the administration because he is not being injured by the decision to ship the migrants. The filing also questions other parts of Pizzo’s lawsuit. The case is scheduled to go before a judge later this month.
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | TO COURT — “ Manatee deaths lead to lawsuit targeting sewer discharges ,” by News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders: “After a record number of manatee deaths last year, an environmental group has filed a federal lawsuit alleging that the state is violating the Endangered Species Act because of septic tanks and sewage-treatment plants discharging into the Indian River Lagoon in Brevard County. The Indian River Lagoon is a vital habitat for manatees, particularly during the winter. But many manatees have died of starvation because of a lack of seagrass, which is a key source of food.” — “ Florida Department of Health monitoring above-average number of RSV cases ,” by CBS Miami
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | IN FRONT OF THE JUDGE — “ Defense attorney casts doubt on Hialeah Republican canvasser’s beating claims ,” by Miami Herald’s David Ovalle: “It was [Christopher] Monzon’s first detailed account of the Oct. 23 fight that mushroomed into a national political story after U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio tweeted that the canvasser was attacked by ‘animals who told him Republicans weren’t allowed in their neighborhood.’ But since the arrests of Javier Lopez and Jonathan Casanova, doubts and questions have surrounded Monzon’s narrative. Lopez’s defense attorney largely dismissed it in court on Monday, saying that an argument had only escalated into testosterone-filled fisticuffs because Monzon was staring at his client’s girlfriend. Even the prosecutor said he did not believe politics had anything to do with the incident, instead urging the judge that the ‘case should be looked at on the facts.’” BIRTHDAYS: Frank Jimenez, vice president and general counsel of GE Healthcare ... Steve Sauls, former vice president for Florida International University | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
