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Gary Fineout's must-read briefing on what's hot, crazy or shady about politics in the Sunshine State | | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and good Wednesday morning. Data drive — A clearer picture is emerging about the November elections in Florida … and it reinforces the depth and the scope of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ nearly 20 point reelection victory over Democratic nominee Charlie Crist. By the numbers — Some of the big takeaways from the voter data now available: Turnout overall dropped from 2018 — which was 62.6 percent — to a more average midterm level of 53.8 percent, but Republicans still showed up in substantial numbers. Historic GOP edge — About 7.7 million Florida voters cast ballots. GOP voter turnout was 67.3 percent, compared to 52 percent for Democrats and 38.5 percent turnout for independents and those registered with minor parties. This Republican turnout advantage is higher than it was in the tea party wave year of 2010 (when Rick Scott narrowly won his first gubernatorial race) and may be the highest ever for the GOP. Who showed up — And then there’s the composition of those who voted. Overall, the electorate was 71 percent white, 13 percent Hispanic and 10 percent Black. Non-white voters turned out lower than they did in 2018 when DeSantis ran against Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum. Black turnout dropped from 62 percent to 40 percent, which was about what it was in 2010 and slightly higher than 2006 (when Crist was the GOP nominee against Rep. Jim Davis.) And who didn’t — Hispanic turnout was also lower than in 2018, but higher than it was in 2014. But more importantly, Republican Hispanic turnout was 56 percent, translating into an advantage for the GOP. Democratic analyst Matt Isbell did a look last week at the data in his own newsletter and concluded that “Hispanic collapse in the Orlando region” likely contributed to losses in legislative regions and the flip of Osceola County from blue to red. Voter preferences — Another interesting trend to point out is the growing divergence in voting methods, especially after the regular broadsides against voting by mail by former President Donald Trump. Showing up — Some 65 percent of Florida voters cast their ballots before Election Day through either early voting or voting by mail. But more than two-thirds of Republicans — 72 percent — still voted in-person. Contrast that with Democrats where 54 percent voted in-person. Democrats had the edge in mail in voting but the majority of voters — 51 percent — who cast ballots at early voting sites or on Election Day were Republican. What’s next? — This is something to watch heading into 2024 since all voters will have to renew their requests for mail-in ballots due to a change passed two years ago by the GOP-controlled Legislature. Lawmakers could also put additional ID requirements in place for mail-in ballots. The Department of State is supposed to give a report by Feb. 1 outlining what changes legislators should make this year. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | JOIN POLITICO ON 2/9 TO HEAR FROM AMERICA’S GOVERNORS: In a divided Congress, more legislative and policy enforcement will shift to the states, meaning governors will take a leading role in setting the agenda for the nation. Join POLITICO on Thursday, Feb. 9 at World Wide Technology's D.C. Innovation Center for The Fifty: America's Governors, where we will examine where innovations are taking shape and new regulatory red lines, the future of reproductive health, and how climate change is being addressed across a series of one-on-one interviews. REGISTER HERE. | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | SLOW RIDE — Frozen: Trump’s primary challengers balk at jumping into the unknown, by POLITICO’s David Siders and Zach Montellaro: Those preparing to challenge Donald Trump in the GOP’s presidential primary are taking their time, privately discussing the prospect of waiting until spring or summer to get in, according to three Republican strategists familiar with different candidates’ deliberations. Part of it is strategic: an effort to make someone else an early Trump foil. Part of it is fear: wariness around their own ability to raise money to sustain a drawn-out campaign. “It’s very, very quiet,” said Wayne MacDonald, a New Hampshire lawmaker and former Republican Party chair in the first-in-the-nation primary state. By the numbers — Over the last month, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the only candidate to approach spending six figures on digital advertising on Google or Meta — which includes Facebook and Instagram. DeSantis’ state campaign has spent $65,000 on advertising on Google platforms since the beginning of the year, and about $62,000 over the last 30 days on Meta, from Dec. 23 through Jan. 21. The ads have all the hallmarks of a candidate building up to a national campaign: “Stand with Gov. DeSantis against the woke left,” one such ad reads. | 
Olivier Douliery/AFP/Getty Images | — “Trio of polls show Trump clawing back momentum from DeSantis,” by Axios’ Zachary Basu — “Ron DeSantis romps over Donald Trump in 2024 poll of South Carolina Republicans,” by Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski — “Daniel Davis pledges to expand police force as he accepts Jacksonville sheriff endorsement,” by Florida Times-Union’s David Bauerlein | | DESANTISLAND | | LONG WAY FROM HOME — “Ron DeSantis, appearing in Idaho ads, calls for constitutional convention,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Kirby Wilson: “A Floridian traveling through Boise, Idaho, might hear a familiar voice if they tune into a local radio station.- Since early January, Gov. Ron DeSantis has appeared in ads on the radio and on Fox News urging the people of Idaho to call for a never-before-seen convention of the states to amend the U.S. Constitution. The governor’s stated end game? To see congressional term limits enacted.” PHILADELPHIA STORY — “‘You don’t want this smoke’: Philly NAACP protests Union League honor for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis,” by Philadelphia Inquirer’s Chris Brennan: “Demonstrators chanted ‘shame’ and ‘racist’ at anyone entering or leaving the club’s Sansom Street doors late Tuesday afternoon. Most ignored the protesters, but a few exchanged words and insults. There was also a chant — ‘Sexist, racist, antigay, Ron DeSantis, go away’ — as several protesters held signs decrying Florida’s so-called Don’t Say Gay legislation, signed into law last year by DeSantis, that prohibits instruction on sexual orientation and gender identity in kindergarten through third grade.” THE MISSION — “New board member says his assignment is ‘to lead New College of Florida out of wokeness,’” by Sarasota Herald-Tribune’s Zac Anderson: “Recently appointed to the New College of Florida board by Gov. Ron DeSantis, Christian school founder Eddie Speir is echoing the governor's war on 'woke' in describing his plans for the Sarasota liberal arts college. Speir outlined how he's approaching his New College position in a recent Substack post that begins by declaring ‘we have a mandate’ and goes on to note that DeSantis won reelection by more than 19 percentage points.’” THE AGENDA — “Florida plans to ‘curb’ diversity efforts at colleges, universities, Nunez says,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Divya Kumar: “Florida will be looking to 'curb' diversity, equity and inclusion efforts at the state’s colleges and universities, Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nunez said Tuesday, offering a preview of what higher education leaders can expect from lawmakers during the upcoming legislative session. Her statements, delivered at a state Board of Governors meeting in Miami, marked the first time the DeSantis administration has explained why its budget office this month requested a detailed accounting of how much colleges and universities spend on such efforts. — “FL’s higher ed system faces a mountain of contentious changes under DeSantis; here’s a rundown,” by Florida Phoenix’s Danielle J. Brown — “DeSantis attacked as ‘authoritarian’ for saying teachers should take away cellphones during class,” by Fox News’ Lindsay Kornick — “Lawsuit expected against Gov. DeSantis on the rejection of AP African American studies pilot,” by Florida Phoenix’s Diane Rado | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | WHAT’S IN YOUR WALLET? — “Florida’s voucher plan could cost public schools nearly $4 billion, report says,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Leslie Postal: “The proposed expansion of Florida’s voucher programs would inflict significant 'fiscal damage' on the state’s public schools, likely costing them nearly $4 billion within five years, according to a progressive state think tank. …The result would be a steep cut in the state education budget for public schools, according to the nonprofit Florida Policy Institute, which opposes the bill.” TIMING — “Florida Supreme Court ruling on abortion likely after legislative session,” by News Service of Florida’s Jim Saunders and Tom Urban: “The Florida Supreme Court likely will not rule until after this year's regular legislative session in a high-stakes case about the constitutionality of a 2022 law that prevents abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Justices on Monday formally agreed to take up the case and issued a schedule that indicated it will be at least until late April before all briefs are filed. The court also did not set a date for oral arguments, which, if held, would happen after the briefs are submitted.” — “Al Lawson set to go to work as Gadsden County’s lobbyist in Tallahassee,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s James Call | | | | DOWNLOAD THE POLITICO MOBILE APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. The sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. DOWNLOAD FOR iOS– DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID. | | | | | | | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | COMING SOON — ‘Decisions are imminent’: Georgia prosecutor nears charging decisions in Trump probe, by POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney: The Atlanta-area district attorney investigating Donald Trump’s effort to subvert the 2020 election indicated on Tuesday that decisions on whether to seek the indictment of the former president or his associates were “imminent.” “Decisions are imminent,” Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis said during a Tuesday court hearing called by the Georgia trial court judge overseeing the “special purpose grand jury” that Willis has used to gather evidence over the last year. — “Trump withdraws second lawsuit against New York attorney general,” by Washington Post’s John Wagner — Trump tries to intervene as Navarro faces trial for defying Jan. 6 committee, by POLITICO’S Kyle Cheney | | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | ‘THEY’RE KICKING US WHEN WHEN WE’RE DOWN’ — “Months after Hurricane Ian hit Florida, many in Fort Myers are living in tents,” by Wall Street Journal’s Deborah Acosta: “Many of those locals—who were priced out of the rental market when the area’s prices soared to record highs—have been forced to move in with family members or live in campers, trailers or mobile homes. Others are camping in front or on top of what is left of their property. At Fort Myers Beach, Mark Garcia is living on the concrete slab where his property once stood. Three small tents adorn his lot. Sixteen of the 42 properties on the street, including Mr. Garcia’s house, were ripped out down to the slab, according to the street association.” — “Hundreds of Daytona’s Midtown residents still out of their flood-damaged homes,” by The Daytona Beach News-Journal’s Eileen Zaffiro-Kean
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | WHEN THE MUSIC’S OVER — Florida eyes banning TikTok at state universities, by POLITICO’s Andrew Atterbury: University officials in Florida are considering a possible ban on TikTok that could block students from using the popular application on 12 campuses across the state. Members on the Board of Governors over state universities, meeting Tuesday in Miami, expressed support for creating a system-wide policy outlawing the app. The change could be introduced in the next two months with scrutiny mounting towards the Beijing-based company. TO COURT — Florida joins 19 other states to challenge Biden’s new immigration program, by POLITICO’s Gary Fineout: Florida has joined 19 states in challenging a newly-announced Biden administration program to accept 30,000 migrants a month from the nations of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela. The states, led by Texas, on Tuesday filed a lawsuit in federal court in Texas’ southern district against against U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and other federal agencies involved in immigration contending that there is no legal authority for the program rolled out by President Joe Biden just ahead of an early January visit to the southern border. | 
Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody speaks during a roundtable discussion with President Donald Trump and law enforcement officials, Monday, June 8, 2020, at the White House in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky) |
HELLO, I MUST BE GOING — “Broward School Board agrees to sever ties with Superintendent Cartwright,” by South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Scott Travis: “The Broward School Board agreed to sever ties Tuesday with Superintendent Vickie Cartwright, ending a tumultuous 17-month tenure marked by scathing audit and grand jury reports, the governor’s removal of board members and a contentious relationship with many administrators and community members.”
— “‘The animosity, the anger’: The many clashes that erupted at Broward’s School Board meeting,” by South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Shira Moolten — “Person fatally shot at Atlanta ‘Cop City’ was well-known Tallahassee activist, FSU grad,” by Tallahassee Democrat’s Christopher Cann — “Tampa grand jury indicts 2 accused of vandalizing anti-abortion health facilities,” by The Associated Press — “Orange County adopts Tenant Bill of Rights, creates an Office of Tenant Services,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Stephen Hudak — “Mayor D.C. Reeves returns from Washington D.C. with focus on Amtrak and fighting opioids,” by Pensacola News Journal’s Jim Little — “LIV Golf League adds Orlando event to schedule a week before The Masters,” by Orlando Sentinel’s Edgar Thompson | | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — “‘Tens of thousands’ Florida bird flu cases now include sandhill cranes, white pelicans,” by Tampa Bay Times’ Max Chesnes BIRTHDAYS: Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick … Rep. Aaron Bean … Gus Corbella, senior director of government law and policy practice with Greenberg Traurig | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
