Good morning and thanks for reading Playbook. As Gov. Ron DeSantis makes Florida’s economic success a big part of his presidential election bid, he could harness state spending to work in his favor politically — or face issues that threaten to undermine his pitch. State economists will meet Friday with the governor’s budget staff and House and Senate aides to draw up their forecasts for Florida’s tax revenues, an exercise that’ll provide insight into how the state’s economy is doing. The estimates will help Florida lawmakers decide how they can spend tax dollars on priorities such as health care, education and corrections ahead of the next legislative session, which begins Jan. 9. The results could alternatively provide political ammunition for state Democrats, who’ve sounded the alarm about soaring rents and unaffordable home insurance. The forthcoming revenue numbers eye factors such as home purchases, what people are borrowing and whether they’re spending. Here are four things to watch following Friday’s meeting: How big will Florida’s surplus be? Last year’s surplus reached a record of nearly $22 billion, a fact DeSantis often touted ahead of his gubernatorial reelection. A good chunk of that went to nixing the sales tax on certain items, particularly for families, and on providing toll rebates. So far, revenue reports are higher than initially projected — but Florida also doesn’t have the influx of federal pandemic relief dollars that it previously enjoyed. Are economists worried about a recession? The Fed predicts the economy is humming along just fine, saying it’s unlikely a recession will hit in 2023. But DeSantis regularly criticizes President Joe Biden on the economy and in late July released his national economic plan. Will Florida plan for future hurricanes? Rebuilding efforts are still underway following the devastation from Hurricane Ian, whose damages were estimated in the tens of billions of dollars. Such storms continue to be a looming threat to forecasting efforts and to revenue. As it stands now, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's is predicting an “above average” storm season that could result in as many as five major hurricanes. How’s tourism going? Theme parks have reported a drop in attendance that could be attributed to a variety of factors, including higher ticketing prices, inflation, scorching heat and maybe even politics. (DeSantis often brags about his ongoing fight with Disney, one of the largest employers in Florida, and accuses the California-based entertainment giant of “sexualizing” children.) The results could affect sales tax collections, but — at the same time — inflation can help increase revenue from sales taxes, given that it drives up prices. — WHERE'S RON? — Gov. DeSantis will join the Guy Benson Show on Fox News Radio. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Reach out at: kleonard@politico.com. SENATE TARGET — Democrats tout poll that shows an opening for challenger to Rick Scott, by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: A new poll paid for by Senate Democrats shows a potential path for Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to beat incumbent Sen. Rick Scott, fueling the push for the former Democratic congresswoman from South Florida to jump into the race. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee authorized a poll of Florida voters in July that showed Scott underwater, with 48 percent of those surveyed viewing him unfavorably compared to just 40 percent who had a favorable view. | 
