How DeSantis is messaging his electability argument

From: POLITICO Florida Playbook - Monday Nov 13,2023 11:56 am

Nov 13, 2023

By Kimberly Leonard and Sally Goldenberg

Republican presidential candidate Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a Republican presidential primary debate hosted by NBC News, Wednesday, Nov. 8, 2023, at the Adrienne Arsht Center for the Performing Arts of Miami-Dade County in Miami. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell)

Good morning and welcome to Monday.

Public polling doesn’t stand it up, but Ron DeSantis is still pursuing his argument that he alone can defeat Joe Biden.

With the coveted endorsement of Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds, Republican electoral losses from last Tuesday's elections and a relatively strong debate performance in Miami, DeSantis is entering this week with fresh material as he tries to persuade GOP influencers and donors that he is the sole candidate to reclaim the White House.

“Donald Trump's a lot different guy than he was in 2016,” DeSantis said during the debate Wednesday. “He said Republicans were gonna get tired of winning. Well, we saw [Tuesday] night I'm sick of Republicans losing. In Florida I showed how it's done.”

The problem with that argument is one poll after another demonstrates frontrunner Donald Trump and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley would also beat Biden. In fact, a recent New York Times poll shows Haley outperforming DeSantis in five of six swing states.

Granted DeSantis has better name ID than Haley. But with just two months until the Iowa caucus kicks off the 2024 primary, she is beginning to undermine one of his main campaign arguments.

And according to new research from Stack Data Strategy, Trump would today beat Biden in the Electoral College, 292 to 246. The findings, first reported by our colleagues at DC Playbook, also showed Biden would trounce DeSantis 359 to 179.

That’s not all. Since the overturning of Roe v. Wade, general-election voters have rejected stringent abortion bans — even some Republican voters. This could cause problems for DeSantis, who signed a 15-week abortion ban in 2022 and a 6-week ban this year. His abortion stance has already turned off some big donors.

DeSantis staffers and backers argue that public polling doesn’t reflect his landslide victory last year in Florida, which became a redder state under his governorship.

And some in DeSantis-land are beginning to push a narrative — which may be wishful thinking, but has been underscored by Obama adviser David Axelrod — that Biden won’t be the nominee next year.

“A lot of Ron DeSantis supporters in the donor community think Biden isn’t going to be the nominee,” said one longtime DeSantis supporter, who would only speak on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss the mood of his wing of the party.

The supporter attributed Trump and Haley’s strong standing in head-to-head matchups with Biden to the president’s low approval ratings and advanced age. But a younger, flashier candidate like California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has repeatedly said he's not running for president in 2024, would bode well for the Florida governor, they believe.

“Then it’s truly a battle for the philosophical soul of the country,” the supporter added.

Expect that line of argument to be on display when DeSantis heads to Iowa this week to try to curry favor with The Family Leader — an influential evangelical organization whose leader has made no secret of his support for DeSantis.

— Sally Goldenberg

— WHERE'S RON? Gov. DeSantis will be on Mark Levin’s radio show during the 8 p.m. hour.

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TODAY — State House select committees are meeting at 3:30 p.m. on hurricane resiliency and health care innovation. (Tune in.)

HELPS EXPLAIN SOARING CAR INSURANCE — “How Florida’s ‘unscrupulous’ auto glass shops fuel an insurance crisis,” by the Washington Post’s Eli Tan. “Insurance companies call them ‘harvesters,’ and their sales pitch to car owners is simple: Auto glass shops can offer free windshield replacements because it’s covered by comprehensive insurance. All they need is a signature. But after the signature is collected and the repair is made, the glass shops send exorbitant bills to insurers, who often deny or pay out a lesser amount for the claim. Lawyers then sue the insurance company for payment and the cost of legal fees, often settling hundreds of lawsuits at a time for a hefty sum.”

NEW VEGAS? — “Some people have a vision of Florida’s future: a gambling destination second only to Las Vegas, perhaps even rivaling it, where tourists play craps and roulette at the Hard Rock Casino in Hollywood, sip cocktails on the beach, and place bets on a Dolphins or Heat game with the swipe of a finger,” reports the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Shira Moolten. “In less than a month, in-person sports betting, craps and roulette will, presumably, begin at all South Florida casinos and elsewhere in the state, though that anticipated launch may hinge on a favorable ruling from the Florida Supreme Court.”

— “Rep. Michelle Salzman gets death threats after Israel-Hamas war remark sparks online fury,” reports the Pensacola News Journal’s Jim Little

WHOOPSIE — “Trump wrongly thanks Randy Fine for switching parties,” by Florida Politics’ Jacob Ogles. “On Thursday, Trump hosted Florida political leaders — including Republican Party of Florida members, congressional lawmakers and Florida legislative leaders endorsing him — for a special event at his estate in Palm Beach County. Fine was there as well, and Trump spotlighted him by name, but with the wrong party background.”

How Fine took it: “President Trump was obviously being tongue-in-cheek and saying that by being a longtime DeSantis supporter I must have been a Democrat. Because to him, Republicans support Trump.”

SUBMIT NOMINATIONS — News Service of Florida is recognizing under-40 rising stars in state government, politics, advocacy, business, labor and media. Editors are accepting nominations until Nov. 15.

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

IT’S A SMALL WORLD AFTER ALL — “Political insiders get fat paychecks, big contracts from DeSantis’ Disney district,” reports the Orlando Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher. “Some winners have emerged in DeSantis’ ongoing battle with Disney: political insiders who scored lucrative six-figure jobs and contracts as the culture war fight unfolded.”

LONGREAD — “The librarian who couldn’t take it anymore,” by the Washington Post’s Ruby Cramer. “When she had decided to become a librarian almost 10 years ago, it was for a simple reason: She loved to read. Now she watched as the work she did at a high school in Central Florida became part of a national debate. There were fights going on over democracy and fascism. There were parents and school board members arguing on social media and in meetings.”

STUDENT BACKLASH — “Pro-Palestinian protesters break out into chants at Florida State board meeting,” reports USA Today Network - Florida’s Douglas Soule. “Some held signs, including one that had a marker-drawn Palestinian flag beside the words, ‘DOES FSU WANT TO PROFIT OFF ANOTHER GENOCIDE?’ Someone at the front of the group held a phone aloft, the screen filled with the words, ‘FSU SILENCES ITS STUDENTS.’”

UNAFFORDABLE SOUTH FLORIDA — Seniors are fighting homelessness, reports 7News in its “Paradise Lost” series, and the percentage of people in South Florida who can’t find enough food to feed their families has risen, reports Larry Seward of CBS Miami.

CAMPAIGN MODE

Republican presidential candidate U.S. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) speaks.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) speaks during the Florida Freedom Summit at the Gaylord Palms Resort on November 04, 2023. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

BREAKING OVERNIGHT — Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina dropped out of the presidential race, reports POLITICO’s Natalie Allison. The South Carolina Republican senator made the announcement in a televised interview on Fox News with his longtime friend Trey Gowdy. The news came as a shock to his own staff.

TODAY — The Bay of Pigs Veterans Association will endorse Sen. Rick Scott’s reelection during an event in Miami. The group is made up of soldiers who fought Cuba’s Communist dictatorship. In a statement accepting the endorsement, Scott praised Cuba policies under Trump — the first politician the group had ever endorsed when it extended its support in 2016. Bay of Pigs Veterans Association President Rafael Montalvo said in a statement that Scott would fight for their values. “We are living in a time that sees our country of birth slowly dying at the hands of a tyranny and we are living in this Great Nation that is our adopted country at a time that all of those values that we fought for, and we live for are threatened,” he said.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — U.S. Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is endorsing fellow Democratic candidate Whitney Fox for Florida’s 13th congressional U.S. House district in the race to challenge incumbent GOP Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. Fox previously was director of communications and marketing for the Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority and recently resigned from the job to run for office.

She’s competing with two other Democrats in the primary: tech executive John Liccione and retired pilot Mark Weinkrantz. Fox pledged if both she and Mucarsel-Powell are elected they'd work together to “lower costs, make our communities safer and protect abortion care.”

HAPPENING WEDNESDAY — Stanley Campbell will jump into the U.S. Senate race in Florida, where he'll seek the Democratic nomination to go up against Sen. Rick Scott. The veteran Navy pilot and businessman — whose company created a Medicare and Medicaid fraud detection software — will launch his campaign from Florida’s Treasure Coast. He’s also the brother of 2 Live Crew rapper Luther Campbell and his wife, Cheryl Campbell, is assistant secretary for administration in the Department of Health and Human Services.

DESANTIS’ NATIONAL EDUCATION PITCH — The 2024 candidate said he’d want to expand Florida’s voucher system nationwide, and estimated it would carry a $25 billion price tag, reports Florida Politics’ A.G. Gancarski.

DATELINE D.C.

THIS WEEK — Congress faces a Friday deadline to pass a government funding bill. Per POLITICO staff, House Speaker Mike Johnson’s pitch is already hitting a wall.

‘THE GREAT GRIFT’ — “COVID-19 aid thieves bought fancy cars, a Pokemon card — even a private island,” reports The Associated Press’ Richard Lardner. “They potentially plundered more than $280 billion in federal COVID-19 aid; another $123 billion was wasted or misspent.”

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

Aileen M. Cannon speaks.

FILE - In this image from video provided by the U.S. Senate, Aileen M. Cannon speaks remotely during a Senate Judiciary Committee oversight nomination hearing to be U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Florida on July 29, 2020, in Washington. The federal judge overseeing the Florida classified documents case against Donald Trump is holding a hearing about a potential conflict of interest involving a co-defendant's lawyer. (U.S. Senate via AP) | U.S. Senate via AP

WILL REVISIT IN MARCH — Judge Aileen Cannon rebuffs Trump’s call for trial delay in classified documents case — for now, reports POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein. Trump’s trial on charges that he hoarded classified military secrets at his Mar-a-Lago estate will remain scheduled for May 20, the federal judge overseeing the case ruled Friday, rejecting for now demands by the former president to postpone the case until after the presidential election next November.

IMMIGRATION PLANS — “Sweeping raids, giant camps and mass deportations,” by the New York Times. “Trump wants to revive his first-term border policies, including banning entry by people from certain Muslim-majority nations and reimposing a Covid 19-era policy of refusing asylum claims — though this time he would base that refusal on assertions that migrants carry other infectious diseases like tuberculosis. He plans to scour the country for unauthorized immigrants and deport people by the millions per year. To help speed mass deportations, Mr. Trump is preparing an enormous expansion of a form of removal that does not require due process hearings.”

ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN

RIP — “‘It’s his compassion I will remember.’ James Fox Miller, former Florida Bar president, dies at 84,” by the Sun-Sentinel’s Rafael Olmeda

SCARY JOB — “Her livelihood? Hunting pythons in the dead of night,” by NYT’s Patricia Mazzei. “A python hunt might evoke images of hunters trudging through swamps and wresting reptiles out of the mud. In reality, it involves cruising the lonely roads that traverse the Everglades in S.U.V.s, hoping for a glimpse of a giant snake. It is strange work, straining on the eyes, brutal on the sleep schedule.”

BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Sam Garrison … Mark Delegal, partner at Delegal Aubuchon Consulting

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