THE LEFT ISN’T FULLY SOLD ON THE BORDER DEAL Senate negotiators are zeroing in on a bipartisan border agreement that could unlock long-stalled aid for Ukraine. As they get closer, Washington is hyper-focused on how House Republicans would treat it. But progressives have a warning of their own: if the deal gives away too much, they’re ready to strike it down. “Senate Democrats will not support a change in the laws on border policy that's incompatible with America's basic values,” said Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), who added that Republicans are “making outlandish demands that they know that Democrats will never accept.” Reminder of the challenge: Speaker Mike Johnson, even after a Wednesday afternoon meeting at the White House with top lawmakers, is insistent that the border deal include the House GOP’s hardline immigration bill — known as H.R. 2. Any deal that meets that benchmark, and possibly even one that comes close, is likely to lose some Democrats. Why Democrats matter so much: Progressive opposition is somewhat perilous in the Senate. Over there, lead GOP negotiator James Lankford is aiming to win significantly more Republican votes than the 10 he would need to clear a filibuster. If Lankford can swing that, and it’s a big if, losing a liberal vote or three wouldn’t be a death knell. He should be prepared to lose several. Asked if a bloc of Senate Democrats would be ready to vote down the deal if it gives away too much, Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) quipped: “Better be.” The problem is bigger in the House, where it’s still unclear whether Speaker Mike Johnson plans to put any Senate deal on the House floor. If he does, it’s easy to see a locked-in bloc of conservatives voting no – either because the proposal doesn’t incorporate all of H.R. 2, or out of blanket opposition to Ukraine aid, or for both reasons. Which means Democrats would need to show up in big numbers. But Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, said in an interview that an early whip count of her group’s roughly 100 House members revealed that they wouldn’t get behind any immigration legislation that is endorsed by Republicans. “I think we should pound and humble Republicans on the fact that they're willing to let Russia win in Ukraine just because they want to pass bills that they couldn't even get passed in the House or the Senate if they had control,” Jayapal said. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin agreed that any border deal stringent enough to meet House Republicans’ demands would risk losing Democratic support: “That's why H.R. 2 as a demand by House Republicans puts us in a difficult position.” Jayapal predicted that any immigration legislation endorsed by Republicans could actually undercut Democrats in key states ahead of November’s election. “We're going to hurt immigrant communities and a progressive base that needs to see a difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on immigration,” she said. There is clearly a difference on many other things – but on immigration, which is the issue that animates a lot of folks in our progressive base and certainly immigrants in Georgia and Arizona … this is going to hurt us. Because we're not going to actually solve the problem that needs to be solved.” TL;DR: Conservatives will stiff-arm any deal progressives can accept. Progressives will stiff-arm any deal conservatives can accept. So the prospects for a border deal actually making it to the president’s desk remain iffy, at best. — Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano
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