What to watch on Election Day

From: POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook - Tuesday Nov 07,2023 12:31 pm
Presented by Delta Dental of Massachusetts: Lisa Kashinsky and Kelly Garrity's must-read rundown of what's up on Beacon Hill and beyond.
Nov 07, 2023 View in browser
 
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By Lisa Kashinsky and Kelly Garrity

Presented by

Delta Dental of Massachusetts

IT’S TIIIIIIIME Cue your best Mariah Carey impression. The holiday season Election Day is here.

Mayors are fighting for their political lives in some of the state’s biggest cities. Open-seat races are ushering in new leaders in others. And a special Senate election is offering Republicans a chance to start turning their struggling party around. Here’s what we’re watching today:

A RESET IN BOSTON — Voters have the chance to remake a dysfunctional Boston City Council that’s been consumed by infighting and seen several of its members face ethical and legal issues that have damaged the body’s reputation and their own.

At least four new faces are guaranteed next term with the departures of two veteran councilors and the unprecedented defeats two incumbents suffered in September’s preliminary.

Who wins these open seats will also help determine the ideological tilt of what is currently a staunchly progressive council that benefits the progressive mayor. Look to the at-large race, where three incumbents and five challengers are battling for four citywide seats, as a bellwether for how Boston’s broader electorate is feeling after two years of progressives in power. Political observers expect the battle for that fourth seat will come down to Henry Santana, a Mayor Michelle Wu-backed progressive, and second-time candidate Bridget Nee-Walsh, who describes herself as “right of center but open-minded.”

Speaking of Wu, these council contests stand as a significant test of the mayor’s political clout and machine. She’s backing four candidates: Santana, Enrique Pepén in District 5, Ben Weber in District 6 and City Councilor Sharon Durkan in District 8.

Wu cast this election in stark terms: “We are facing a directional choice for our city, for our neighborhoods,” she said at a canvass for Pepén on Sunday in Mattapan Square. “Are we going to keep building to be a city for everyone? Or are we going to get pulled back to a place where we have been and we don’t need to be anymore?”

Michelle Wu and Enrique Pepen

Boston Mayor Michelle Wu (left) has campaigned for several first-time council candidates, including her former head of neighborhood services, Enrique Pepén (right). | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO

INCUMBENT UPON THEM — Mayors are on the chopping block across the commonwealth. But some are more at risk than others: Take Woburn, where City Council President Michael Concannon led Mayor Scott Galvin in the city’s preliminary election, and Fitchburg, where City Councilor Samantha Squailia finished ahead of Mayor Stephen DiNatale.

Incumbents are also facing challenges from sitting city councilors, former city officials and, in some cases, former employees in Taunton, Medford, Chicopee, Waltham, Amesbury, Braintree, Worcester and Gloucester, where Mayor Greg Verga is battling Mary Ellen Rose, who said she was fired as the city’s health director earlier this year.

Few races are as fraught as in Springfield, where Mayor Domenic Sarno will have to defeat City Councilor Justin Hurst to extend his tenure as the western Massachusetts city’s longest-serving mayor. This bitter battle has been roiled in its closing days by allegations that Hurst’s campaign paid people for their votes, which he has denied. More on Springfield from WAMC.

Incumbents appear in better position to keep their seats in other contests, including Brockton, Somerville, New Bedford, Gardner, Weymouth and Quincy, where longtime mayor Thomas Koch is battling Councilor Anne Mahoney for the third time

DUST YOURSELF OFF AND TRY AGAIN — Former mayors are looking for comebacks in Revere and Fall River. On the North Shore, City Councilor Dan Rizzo is looking to reclaim the top job eight years after Brian Arrigo knocked him out of it. Allies of Arrigo, who left this spring to lead DCR, are now backing Acting Mayor Patrick Keefe for the seat. To the south, Fall River Mayor Paul Coogan is aiming to fend off a challenge from former Mayor Sam Sutter.

NEW DIRECTIONS — Haverhill voters will crown their first new mayor in 20 years today as open-seat races usher in new eras of leadership in Pittsfield, Melrose, Agawam and Marlborough.

SENATE SPECIAL — Republicans are putting up a fight for a state Senate seat that’s sat firmly in Democratic hands for decades. Republican state Rep. Peter Durant and Democratic state Rep. Jonathan Zlotnik are battling to succeed Democrat Anne Gobi, who’s now the state’s rural affairs director. The stakes are high for the state GOP and its new leader — even if a Republican win won't dent Democrats' supermajority in the Senate. We dive in below.

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Stay tuned for results tomorrow.

TODAY — Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll have no public events. Wu votes and holds a media availability with Pepén at 8:30 a.m. at Phineas Bates Elementary School and speaks at a Rosie’s Place fundraiser at noon. Secretary of State Bill Galvin votes at 9:30 a.m. at Edison K-8 School in Brighton.

Tips? Scoops? Election results? Email us: lkashinsky@politico.com and kgarrity@politico.com.

 

A message from Delta Dental of Massachusetts:

Delta Dental of Massachusetts is a strong advocate for brushing and flossing daily, visiting your dentist, and expressing your health. Daily oral health habits can make a huge difference in your overall health and well-being. Additionally, by maintaining good oral hygiene, you are helping your future self avoid problems such as diabetes, heart disease and dementia. Speak with your dentist or learn more information at ExpressYourHealthMA.org.

 
TODAY'S SPECIAL (ELECTION)

REPUBLICANS HOPE FOR A RESURRECTION — The MassGOP is facing its first major electoral test since Amy Carnevale wrested control of the state party from Jim Lyons in January.

After years of infighting contributed to Republicans losing up and down the ballot last year and legal battles left the party digging out of debt, Carnevale is looking to prove to party activists and donors that she can reverse the state GOP’s fortunes. She’ll have a few chances in today’s elections. But it’s the special state Senate election that’s particularly key.

Republicans are rallying behind Durant in a competitive central and western Massachusetts district. Democrats have held the seat for decades. But the state’s top elections official noted yesterday that the district “has a fairly higher number of Republicans than many other legislative districts.”

Former Gov. Charlie Baker and former Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito endorsed Durant. Polito even joined Carnevale and other prominent Republicans at a pre-election fundraiser for Durant headlined by none other than former ambassador and one-time Sen. Scott Brown and his eponymous band, “Scott Brown and the Diplomats.”

“There's nothing more important in your life,” Polito told the gathering, “than getting out to vote on Tuesday — than demonstrating that the Republican Party is alive and well.”

Scott Brown plays the guitar on stage.

Scott Brown and the Diplomats | Kelly Garrity/POLITICO

Democrats, including new party Chair Steve Kerrigan, want to keep this seat blue. Party activists at MassDems’ convention earlier this fall sent thousands of texts to voters in the district encouraging them to vote for Zlotnik. Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll endorsed him, and Driscoll campaigned in his hometown of Gardner over the weekend.

This race will also test the political salience of two issues: immigration and guns. Durant was outspoken in his opposition to the gun restrictions that cleared his chamber last month (Zlotnik also voted against the bill.) And he’s repeatedly criticized Healey over the shelter crisis that’s being driven by a surge in migrants and a shortage of housing. Go deeper with GBH’s Katie Lannan.

 

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YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO TURNOUT — There are no federal or statewide races to drive people to the polls today. But interest in the Senate contest and several competitive mayoral races could still drive up turnout in some places, Secretary of State Bill Galvin said. Turnout of anywhere between 30 percent to 50 percent is “reasonably acceptable” for municipal elections, Galvin said. “It’s not to me,” he added. “But that’s the range, historically.”

HEALEY, DRISCOLL WEIGH IN — Healey and Driscoll have endorsed at least a dozen candidates in today’s mayoral races.

Their slate includes incumbent Mayors Gary Christenson in Malden, Thomas Koch in Quincy, Paul Coogan in Fall River, Roxann Wedegartner in Greenfield, Michael Nicholson in Gardner, Breanna Lungo-Koehn in Medford, Katjana Ballantyne in Somerville, Greg Verga in Gloucester and Kassandra Gove in Amesbury. In open-seat races, the duo is throwing its weight behind City Councilor Melinda Barrett in Haverhill, City Councilor Jen Grigoraitis in Melrose and Acting Mayor Patrick Keefe in Revere.

As we noted earlier in election season, Healey and Driscoll’s impact is likely to be limited in municipal races rooted in local issues and political dynamics, especially because they’re not on the ballot themselves. But it won’t look good for the state’s top two politicians if their chosen candidates lose, either.

 

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MEANWHILE IN RHODE ISLAND

NEW CONGRESSMAN INCOMING — Voters in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District could make Obama and Biden White House alum Gabe Amo the first person of color to represent the Ocean State in Congress, as the special election to finish out former Rep. David Cicilline’s term comes to a close today.

Amo, a Democrat, has the support of former President Barack Obama, former Gov. Deval Patrick and other big names. His opponent, Republican and political newcomer Gerry Leonard, counts fellow U.S. Marine Corps veteran Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) among his backers. Amo led Leonard in a mid-October poll of voters in this safe-blue district.

DATELINE BEACON HILL

MIGRANT MONEY MOVING — House lawmakers will take up a supplemental budget tomorrow that includes money for the emergency shelter system. But House Speaker Ron Mariano wouldn’t say yesterday whether it would be exactly the $250 million Healey requested in September.

Speaking to reporters after the Big Three huddled behind closed doors, Senate President Karen Spilka pledged to take up the package the House sends over — which will also close the books on fiscal year 2023 — “in short order.”

Healey expects the shelter system will reach its self-imposed 7,500-family capacity limit “in the next day or so.” There were 7,439 families receiving emergency assistance as of yesterday afternoon. The Boston Globe’s Matt Stout has more.

“Mass. has dropped 76,000 residents from state-subsidized insurance rolls this year,” by Kinga Borondy, Telegram & Gazette.

 

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FROM THE HUB

WORTH A READ TODAY — This profile of Boston Mayor Michelle Wu after almost two years in office, by Catherine Elton for Boston Magazine.

“Pro-Palestine protesters removed from Boston City Hall after disrupting Warren, Pressley event,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald: “Police officers removed a small group of pro-Palestinian protesters from Boston City Hall Monday, after they interrupted a press conference to demand that U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren call for an immediate cease-fire in Israel and Gaza.”

FROM THE DELEGATION

WELL WISHES — The House Rules Committee offered prayers and best wishes yesterday to ranking member Jim McGovern’s daughter Molly, who is going through cancer treatment, our colleagues reported in POLITICO’s Huddle.

THE LOCAL ANGLE

ANOTHER LONGSHOT ENTERS THE RACE — David Stuckenberg, an Air Force Reserve major who co-founded a greentech company, is launching a longshot bid for the Republican presidential nomination in Plymouth on Wednesday, some 1,300 miles away from his home of Tampa, Fla. Who and why from the Patriot Ledger’s Hannah Morse.

“Plymouth family crosses from Gaza into Egypt, escaping conflict,” by Dave Eisenstadter, MassLive.

 

A message from Delta Dental of Massachusetts:

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HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Sarah Groh, chief of staff to Rep. Ayanna Pressley, and her husband, Brian Stockless, welcomed a baby boy, Murray, last Friday.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Massachusetts Competitive Partnership's Jay Ash, Joe Tutino and Cindy Rowe.

Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com.

 

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