Monmouth was on the money

From: POLITICO New Jersey Playbook - Tuesday Nov 15,2022 11:56 am

Nov 15, 2022

Presented by AARP New Jersey

Good Tuesday morning!

Monmouth developed a reputation as New Jersey’s premier pollster but had to undergo some self-reflection after last year, when its final gubernatorial poll showed Gov. Murphy leading Jack Ciattarelli by 11 points. Murphy won by three.

Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray wrote a “mea pollpa” about that .

Unfortunately, Monmouth didn’t poll any New Jersey races this cycle. But it did poll in Pennsylvania and Georgia. And the results for its “high motivation voter” model were pretty much dead on , especially in Pennsylvania and the George Senate race.

“At the Monmouth University Poll, we have never shied away from taking responsibility when we’ve been wrong, so it only seems fair to recap when we got it right as well,” Murray wrote in a blog post Monday . Murray also goes into some interesting contrasts between the high motivation voter model versus the enthusiasm metric, along with the flaws in how the media covers polling.

Interestingly, a conservative polling outfit that pegged New Jersey last year, Trafalgar, this year released polls that skewed Republican and helped shape the media narrative that we were going to see a Republican wave last week.

DAYS SINCE MURPHY REFUSED TO SAY WHETHER HIS WIFE’S NON-PROFIT SHOULD DISCLOSE DONORS: 282

TIPS? FEEDBACK? HATE MAIL? Email me at mfriedman@politico.com

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — Aura Dunn, Matt Fried (sans man), Christina Zuk

WHERE’S MURPHY? — At Newark Airport at 11 a.m. for the Terminal A ribbon cutting ceremony, then in Berkeley Heights at 3 p.m. for a corporate grand opening ceremony. Media: "Ask Governor Murphy" on News 12 at 5 p.m.

QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I’ve been flattered as I’ve run up and down the state this election, hearing people ask me about if I’ll run … But I have no intention of doing that.” — Sen. Cory Booker on the prospect of running for governor in 2025 , which I haven’t heard a lot of speculation on

A message from AARP New Jersey:

Caring for a parent, spouse or other older loved one can be financially and emotionally draining. Every day, family caregivers struggle to assist older loved ones often using money out of their own pockets. The average family caregiver spends about a quarter of their income on caregiving activities. That’s a huge burden. But NJ lawmakers can give family caregivers the relief they need by supporting the Caregiver’s Assistance Act (A1802/S2021). Tell lawmakers: support (A1802/S2021).

WHAT TRENTON MADE

INSERT BEAR PUN HERE — “ Environmentalists push back on return of N.J.’s bear hunt ,” by New Jersey Monitor’s Sophie Nieto-Munoz: “When Lesniak heard about the bear hunt potentially returning, he said, ‘I was more than surprised, I was shocked.’ Lesniak said he and other animal rights activists have had multiple meetings and discussions with Shawn LaTourette, the state’s environmental commissioner, that led them to believe the bear hunt would not resume. ‘Basically, they were pulling our chain,’ Lesniak said … Encounters with bears have increased sharply since 2021, according to the state Department of Environmental Protection … Angi Metler, a co-founder of the Animal Protection League of New Jersey who lives in Vernon in Sussex County, said she hasn’t seen many more bears than usual, except on trash … She said she’s worried the bear encounter numbers offered by the state are inflated by residents who call repeatedly or by hunters who want the bear hunt to return. Metler noted that no emergency was called in 2014, when data showed double the number of bear incidents.”

—Snowflack: “ Bear hunt thoughts ”

—Opinion: “ A bear hunt is not the answer, Governor Murphy ”

‘PARENTS’ RIGHTS’ GROUPS SAY DEATH IS TRYING TO INDOCTRINATE CHILDREN BY ACKNOWLEDGING ITS EXISTENCE — “ NJ students could soon get required instruction on grieving ,” by NJ 101.5’s David Mathau: “State Sen. Jon Bramnick , R-Union, said we are teaching a lot of different things in health class in Jersey ‘and this is an area that everyone has some experience with, meaning everyone suffers grief.’ He’s sponsoring a measure, S3330 that would require each school district in New Jersey to include instruction on grief in an appropriate place in the curriculum of students in grades 8 through 12. He said teaching our children how to deal with this subject is important. ‘Whether it’s a loss within your family or trying to help others who have suffered some sort of loss, this would be a short course within health (class).’”

NYC SALIVATES AT THE CONGESTION PRICING POSSIBILITIES — ” As more employees return to the office, mass transit volumes soar, some to pre-COVID heights ,” by NJ Advance Media’s Larry Higgs: “As employees return to Manhattan and Center City Philadelphia workplaces, even just a few days a week, transit ridership is increasing and vehicular traffic on some bridges and tunnels has surpassed or approached pre-pandemic highs seen in 2019. … Traffic and ridership reflects what surveys of Manhattan and Philadelphia employers said, that more companies are expecting or asking their employees to be in the workplace several days a week as the coronavirus subsides.”

BMW OWNERS TO BE ASSESSED MONTHLY ‘MOST OBNOXIOUS DRIVERS’ FEE — Bill to ban car companies from charging fees to use built-in features sails through Assembly committee , by POLITICO’s Matt Friedman: Legislation that would ban auto manufacturers and dealers from charging subscription fees to use features already built into cars easily cleared an Assembly committee on Monday. The bill, NJ A4519 (22R), was written in response to news reports and comments by car company executives about future plans, including one by BMW to charge Korean customers to use heated seats. The bill, which received significant media attention shortly after it was introduced, advanced through the Assembly Consumer Affairs Committee on Monday by a vote of 5-0.

SOME REPUBLICANS HOPE KAISER WILL HELM THE TICKET — “ Paramus councilman might take on Lagana ,” by New Jersey Globe’s David Wildstein: “Fresh off a landslide win in Paramus, Republicans are now readying a bid to unseat State Sen. Joseph Lagana (D-Paramus) and his running mates in Bergen County’s 38th district in 2023. Paramus Councilman Robert Kaiser is exploring a bid for State Senate, the New Jersey Globe has confirmed. The 52-year-old Kaiser is a former deputy police chief in South Hackensack and won a Paramus council seat last year. Some Republicans want Nick De Gregorio, a former U.S. Marine combat veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, to run against Lagana.”

—“ 14th District Assembly seat opens up with Benson’s expected county executive bid”

— “ As more employees return to the office, mass transit volumes soar, some to pre-COVID heights ”

—“ Lawmakers move to make contraceptives available over the counter ”

MEDIA FIGHT OF THE DAY — David Wildstein vs. Tom Moran

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BIDEN TIME

2022 — “ 6 election takeaways to shape New Jersey politics for next few years ,” by The Record’s Charles Stile: “Traditional middle-of-the-road moderation reasserted this fall, as Gottheimer, Sherrill and Malinowski pummeled their opponents as ‘extremists’ who were out of step with mainstream New Jersey values. In television ads, Gottheimer contrasted himself as the pro-police, problem-solver centrist concerned about rising property taxes while switching to images of his opponent, Frank Pallotta of Mahwah, in dark glasses as the narrator recited his anti-abortion position: ‘Frank Pallotta: Too extreme for New Jersey.’ Democrats looking for a winning formula might do well to emulate Gottheimer's ‘brand of optimistic moderation’ said Bob Sommer, a political communications strategist. But it also helps to have a stockpile of campaign cash to broadcast that message. Gottheimer and Sherrill amassed enormous war chests and were helped by a $2 million infusion of cash help from billionaire Mike Bloomberg near the end of the race. DeGroot and Pallotta lacked the resources to respond.”

—“ Drill sergeant charged in death of Marine from N.J., officials say ”

—“ Feds dismiss Jan. 6 charges against man they said bragged about being in Pelosi’s office ”

—“ Federal chemical board important to N.J. still plagued by staff vacancies, watchdog says ”

A message from AARP New Jersey:

LOCAL

THE WEEKES END — “ Split on Atlantic City council continues after nonpartisan ballot question fails ,” by The Press of Atlantic City’s Michelle Brunetti Post: “For the second time in less than three years, Mayor Marty Small Sr. had to beat back a ballot question seeking to change the way the government or elections are run here. On Nov. 8, the electorate came through for him, rejecting a switch to local nonpartisan elections by a margin of 54% to 46%. Now the question is, will his critics back off trying to change the rules, or is a new ballot question lurking in his future? “No, I don’t envision that,” Councilman Bruce Weekes said Friday of starting a new ballot initiative … But Weekes isn’t giving up on this year’s effort until all provisional and vote-by-mail ballots are counted, he said, although he knows it’s a long shot.”

NEWARK — “ Mother and sons sue Newark, charging racial profiling and harassment after melee with police ,” by NJ Advance Media’s Steve Strunsk y: “A Newark family has filed a federal civil rights suit charging they were racially profiled and harassed by police following an altercation outside their home last year that left two plainclothes officers injured and four brothers charged with assaulting them. The suit was filed on Nov. 2 in U.S. District Court in Newark on behalf of Monique Rodwell and three of her four adult sons, Jaykil and Branden Rodwell and Jasper Spivey, who live together on Cypress Street in the South Ward. The suit accuses Newark police and Essex County Prosecutor’s officers of stopping Jaykil because he is Black, sparking the altercation with his brothers, and intimidating the family into keeping silent by surveilling their home from patrol cars and even a police helicopter … The suit names the city; Mayor Ras Baraka; his chief of staff and brother, Amiri Braka Jr.; the city’s former public safety director, Brian O’Hara; a South Ward police commander at the time of the incident, Capt. Rasheen Peppers, who retired Jan. 31; two Newark police sergeants and two detectives; and a lieutenant with the Essex County Prosecutor’s office. “

TRENTON — “ N.J. city will pay $1M to detective who found toy monkey hanging at his workspace ,” by Kevin Shea for NJ.com: “The City of Trenton has agreed to settle - for $1 million in the midst of trial - the racial discrimination allegations of a former police detective who said he arrived at work in March 2014 to find a stuffed animal monkey hanging at his workstation, his lawyers said. Damon Jefferson alleged in a March 2016 lawsuit that the monkey was hanging from a makeshift noose.”

THE BIGGEST N.J. NAVAL BATTLE SINCE THE REVOLUTIONARY WAR — “ Appeal the latest strike in ferry war over N.J. commuter route ,” by NJ Advance Media’s Larry Higgs: “The ferry war between New Jersey’s two largest private ferry companies is waging over a lucrative New York commuter route. Commuters could be riding the familiar blue and white NY Waterway ferries a little longer after attorneys for the Weehawken-based company filed a motion on Nov. 10, asking the court to delay Seastreak LLC’s takeover of commuter service from the county-owned ferry terminal in the Belford section of Middletown. NY Waterway is seeking the delay while the company appeals a Nov. 2 ruling denying a lawsuit that seeks to overturn Monmouth County’s June 21 award of a contract to run commuter service from the terminal.”

—“ Morris jail failed to send sick inmate to hospital, family says. He later died in custody ”

—“ North Brunswick approves its first marijuana dispensary ”

—“ Atlantic County may get new voting machines if $3.2 million bond passes board ”

—“ Red Bank Regional teacher accused of having four-year sexual relationship with student ”

—“[ Edison] school district creates committee to review reports of sexual harassment, assault ”

—“ Municipalities challenge where offshore wind cables will go ”

—“ Mercer will likely finish counting votes in the middle of this week ”

—“ First public meeting Wednesday kicks off new Atlantic City effort to improve city services ”

—“ Hoboken and Jersey City announce first protected bike lane connecting the 2 cities ”

—“ [Union County] bans firearms, except for law enforcement, on county property ”

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EVERYTHING ELSE

JERSEY DEVIL ENDANGERED — “ Dumping and illegal off-road driving, twin scourges of the Pinelands ,” by NJ Spotlight News’ Jeff Pillets: “Biologists in New Jersey have been charting the death spiral of the Pickering’s morning glory for decades. Found today only in about a dozen remote locations in the Pine Barrens, the early summer bloom, noted for its pure white, star-shaped clusters, is on a path to extinction. One day not long ago, a conservationist who’s tracked the bloom for years discovered that somebody had dumped about a ton of construction debris on top of one of few remaining patches of the little flower … Environmental advocates interviewed by NJ Spotlight News said covert dumping in the 1.1 million-acre Pinelands preserve has spread deep into the woods alongside a twin scourge, illegal off-road driving that has destroyed native habitats and rendered roads and trails impassable … The mountains of trash in the Pinelands are, in the view of conservationists who deal with it every day, the fruit of neglect by a state that has gutted spending on public lands and failed to adequately protect and maintain public parks and wilderness spaces. They point out that staffing in state parks and preservation areas has fallen by 30% since 2006.”

AN EXCREMENT IDEA — “ Brigantine's fecal donor spreads message of 'perfect poop' through billboard ,” by The Press of Atlantic City’s Michelle Brunetti Pos t: “Michelle Brunetti Post Brigantine's Herbie Allen is bragging about his "perfect poop" from high above the Atlantic City Expressway. The 71-year-old, who credits his strict healthy diet with his exceptional microbiome, recently bought space on a billboard in Atlantic City to drive awareness of Fecal Transplants, and why they are so important. ‘My poop can save your life. Just ask me how @perfectpoopguy,’ the billboard says. ‘Follow Herbie Allen to learn how to live a longer, healthier life.’ Last year Allen was found to be an excellent fecal donor to his wife Patti, 70, whose repeated antibiotic treatments had wiped out her microbiota and left her with terrible digestive problems.”

—“ To combat ongoing financial woes, NJCU reveals reorg plan that cuts 3 top management jobs ”

—“ OceanFirst buying spree hits snag, as deal with Maryland bank dies ”

—“ With Yo-Yo Ma in tow, N.J. Symphony celebrates 100th birthday with brilliant gala performance ”

—“ NJ gets millions of dollars from Google in settlement over ‘misleading conduct’ ”

—“ ‘We are the Garden State': NJ backs its farmers in FDU poll ”

A message from AARP New Jersey:

Caring for a parent, spouse or other older loved one can be financially and emotionally draining. Every day, family caregivers struggle to assist loved ones often using money out of their own pockets. The average family caregiver spends about a quarter of their income on caregiving activities. Many take on debt or tap into savings to make sure their loved ones get the care they need. That’s a huge burden. And their sacrifices save the state and taxpayers money by keeping their loved ones out of costly nursing home facilities. New Jersey family caregivers provide more than $13 billion a year in unpaid care. It’s past time to give them some financial relief. NJ lawmakers can take action by supporting the Caregiver’s Assistance Act (A1802/S2021). This bill would provide a modest tax credit for family caregivers who pay for expensive care out of their own pockets. Tell lawmakers: support (A1802/S2021).

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