A red wave for New York House seats

From: POLITICO New York Playbook - Thursday Nov 10,2022 12:17 pm

Nov 10, 2022

By Erin Durkin , Anna Gronewold and Julian Shen-Berro

If Democrats lose their House majority, it may be New York that did them in.

Congressional races called on Wednesday handed win after win to Republicans, which have now clinched at least 10 of New York’s 26 House seats, flipping four previously held by Democrats. And New York Democrats know who to blame: themselves .

The biggest name to fall was Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, who conceded Wednesday as his 17th District race was called for challenger Mike Lawler. “I don’t like to lose, but my opponent won this race. He won it fair and square,” Maloney said.

There’s plenty of irony in this outcome. Maloney opted, after redistricting, to run in NY-17, rather than the NY-18 district he currently represents, because it appeared to be a safer bet for a Democratic general election victory. In the process, he incited a fierce intraparty squabble by displacing Rep. Mondaire Jones, who opted to run — and ultimately lose — in the primary for another district in New York City. Now Democrats have won NY-18, but both Maloney and Jones are unemployed. Jones summed up the reaction in one word: “Yikes.”

On Long Island, it’s a GOP sweep of four congressional seats — two staying in Republican hands, and two flips. The seats now held by departing Reps. Tom Suozzi and Kathleen Rice were won by Republicans George Santos and Anthony D’Esposito, respectively. In the Hudson Valley, Republican Marc Molinaro flipped another Democratic seat .

The only win for Democrats among the state’s most contested seats comes in NY-18, where Republican Colin Schmitt conceded to Rep. Pat Ryan. (The race still has not been officially called.) Republican Brandon Williams has a narrow lead over Democrat Francis Conole for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Rep. John Katko in the Syracuse area.

A lot of this has to do with the fact that redistricting, which Democrats tried to use to run up their numbers, blew up epically in the party’s face. But even then, Democrats had competitive turf to work with and largely came up short.

“I just keep thinking of the old adage: Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered,” Democratic strategist Peter Kauffmann said. “There was a way to draw those lines to make more Democratic seats and withstand a legal challenge. By overshooting, we’re now going to lose two or three more seats than we need to.”

IT’S THURSDAY . Got tips, suggestions or thoughts? Let us know ... By email: EDurkin@politico.com and agronewold@politico.com , or on Twitter: @erinmdurkin and @annagronewold

WHERE’S KATHY? In San Juan hosting a reception for the annual SOMOS conference.

WHERE’S ERIC? Appearing on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” making remarks at the Anti-Defamation League’s "Never is Now" conference, making a cleanliness-related announcement, meeting with Bronx NeON participants, calling into WXBK-FM 94.7’s “The Block,” and hosting a Community Conversation on Public Safety.

NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don’t miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID .

What City Hall's reading

“ The ‘Red Wave’ Hit Southern Brooklyn. Some Blame the County Democrats ,” by New York Focus’s Sam Mellins : “On Election Day, the Brooklyn neighborhood of Bensonhurst, a political battleground, was buzzing with campaigners. Volunteers for Max Rose thrust flyers into commuters’ hands, urging them to help the former Democratic congressman win back the seat he lost in 2020. An SUV from campaign headquarters pulled up with sandwiches for the team. On a corner a few blocks away, Democratic state Senate candidate Iwen Chu made her case to voters in English and Chinese, flanked by other Brooklyn electeds, union representatives, and Working Families Party members. Missing, however, were any canvassers sent by the Kings County Democratic Party. Until about a week ago, the party had done virtually nothing to help any Democratic candidates, anywhere in Brooklyn.”

— “We were literally left to die on a vine here. And it’s deeply frustrating that our party didn’t even put up a fight,” said Brooklyn state Sen. Andrew Gounardes .

“ Four Charts That Show How Hochul Struggled to Turn Out NYC Voters ,” by The City’s Sam Rabiyah: “Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, won Tuesday’s election with 52.5% of the vote, beating Republican rival Lee Zeldin and his 47.2%. But a closer look at the numbers shows that the incumbent governor lagged when it came to getting voters to the polls in the five boroughs. New York City’s turnout — which usually trails the rest of the state — dropped even further in 2022. In 2018, 44% of registered voters in the city turned out to vote for governor, compared to just 36% this year. Meanwhile, non-NYC turnout remained relatively stable: 55% in 2018 vs. 53% this year. That mattered for Hochul because Democrats are 68% of all active registered voters in New York City — even as the GOP, the registration party of 10% of city voters, made gains this year.”

“ Inside the NYC backroom poker dens spotlighted in Eric Ulrich probe ,” by New York Post’s Michael Kaplan: “After it was revealed last week that Eric Ulrich, now the former NYC Buildings Commissioner, was under investigation by NYC prosecutors over a gambling-related probe, a poker-world source had advice for The Post. Speaking of the so-called backroom poker games in Ozone Park, Queens, where Ulrich is said to have possibly racked up debts with mob associates, the poker-world source said: ‘Are you planning on playing there? My advice is, don’t. It’s not a good environment. You might find yourself dealing with nasty people, which is normal for a poker game — but in Ozone Park, the people might also be tough.’ It’s a warning that could have been job-saving for Ulrich, who resigned after the probe came to light.”

WHAT ALBANY'S READING

“ Rep. Lee Zeldin concedes to Gov. Hochul in New York governor’s race ,” by New York Daily News’ Tim Balk: “Rep. Lee Zeldin conceded to Gov. Hochul on Wednesday afternoon, about 13 hours after The Associated Press called New York’s tighter-than-expected race for governor. ‘I would like to congratulate New York Governor Kathy Hochul on her election to a full four-year term,’ Zeldin said in a statement. ‘This race was a once-in-a-generation campaign, with a very close margin in the bluest of blue states.’ ‘Those controlling Albany should take note,’ he added. Zeldin, a crime-focused Long Island Republican who voted to overturn the 2020 presidential election won by President Biden, had declined to immediately concede Tuesday night, even as numerous news outlets declared him the loser.”

“ You’re welcome, Kathy: Progressive lefties say they won NY for Hochul ,” by New York Post’s Bernadette Hogan, Jesse O’Neill and Carl Campanile: "The Working Families Party and its progressive allies took credit Wednesday for Gov. Kathy Hochul’s election to a full term, claiming their support made the difference in the Democrat’s close win over GOP challenger Lee Zeldin. Hochul, a 64-year-old Buffalo native, also became the first Upstate candidate to win the high office in more than a century, beating the Long Island congressman by a 5.6 percent margin with 94% of precincts reporting Wednesday. 'We’re proud that the work we put in on the ground is reflected in the gubernatorial results,' Working Families Party spokesman Ravi Mangla said Wednesday, citing the party’s 2 million text messages and over 250,000 calls made to voters on Hochul’s behalf."

Assembly Democrats likely to keep a slim supermajority, while Senate's supermajority down to 2 races , by POLITICO’s Bill Mahoney: Democrats in both houses of the state Legislature entered the morning after Election Day well-positioned to retain sizable majorities, though seven races appear likely to determine just how big they are. Democrats had declared victory in 40 of the 63 state Senate seats and were holding out hopes in two others. Victories in both of those contests would leave them with a bare supermajority of 42 members, one shy of the record-breaking 43 they won in the 2020 elections. Assembly Democrats appear to have clinched in at least 100 seats in the 150-member chamber, the exact amount needed for a supermajority. Five additional races remained close. Democrats won either 106 or 107 Assembly races in each election over the past decade. The size of the conference in the Senate appeared to come down to two remaining races.

— Republicans flipped three New York State Senate seats on Long Island.

“ New York State collects $740 million in taxes from online sports betting ,” by amNewYork’s Aidan Graham: “Legalized online sports betting has been a major financial boost to New York, as the Empire State has collected over $740 million in revenue since the industry was green-lit in January. Governor Kathy Hochul, who just won the election to remain the state’s chief effective on Tuesday, announced that New York raked in $542 million in taxes from online betting, along with over $200 million in licensing fees since the beginning of the year.”

#UpstateAmerica: A new GPS system will track the snow plows of Buffalo .

DON’T MISS POLITICO’S 2nd ANNUAL DEFENSE SUMMIT ON 11/16: The United States is facing a defining moment in the future of its defense, national security and democratic ideals. The current conflicts and developments around the world are pushing Washington to reshape its defense strategy and how it cooperates with allies. Join POLITICO for our second annual defense summit, “At a Crossroads: America’s Defense Strategy” on November 16 in person at the Schuyler DC or join online to hear keynote interviews and panels discussing the road ahead for America’s national security. REGISTER HERE .

CAMPAIGN MODE

“How Democrat Max Rose Would Have Won NY-11 Under District Maps Thrown Out by Court , by THE CITY’s Tanaz Meghjani: “Max Rose suffered a crushing defeat on Tuesday in a rematch against incumbent Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-Staten Island/Brooklyn), losing New York’s 11th congressional district by 24 points, compared to just 6 points in 2020. But a data analysis conducted by THE CITY shows that if the New York State Court of Appeals hadn’t overturned the proposed congressional boundaries drawn by the Democratic-controlled state legislature earlier this year, Rose might have won the district by almost 4,000 votes, giving the seat to Democrats. With control of the House hanging on a few yet to be decided seats, such an outcome could have played a pivotal role in determining which party sets the agenda in the next Congress.”

“ Ocasio-Cortez slams NY Democratic Party leadership over election results ,” by The Hill’s Mychael Schnell : “Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) slammed New York state party leadership on Wednesday after election returns showed the Empire State trending to the right, calling on the president of the group to resign. ‘NYS Dem party leadership, which was gutted under [former New York Gov. Andrew] Cuomo [D], stuffed with lobbyists, works to boost GOP, and failed to pass a basic state ballot measure to protect NY redistricting, must be accountable,’ Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Twitter. ‘I called for Jay Jacob’s resignation a year ago and I still hold that position,’ she added, referring to the New York State Democratic Party president.”

TRUMP'S NEW YORK

“ Trump Fails To Halt Monitorship As Request Goes To Panel ,” by Law 360’s Frank G. Runyeon: “A New York appeals court judge on Wednesday denied Donald Trump's emergency bid to halt plans to impose a Trump Organization monitor during the state attorney general's $250 million fraud lawsuit, opting to bring his request to stay the monitorship before ‘a full bench’ this month. The decision followed quietly organized oral arguments in the gilded courtroom of the First Judicial Department in Manhattan. Associate Justice Angela M. Mazzarelli rejected the request to immediately pause trial court Justice Arthur F. Engoron's order to appoint an independent monitor, declining to favor Trump's argument that the attorney general does not have authority to intervene in private transactions and clearing the way for the overseer to be installed as soon as next week.”

AROUND NEW YORK

— Mayor Eric Adams signed a package of bills to enhance child care services and lauded the passage of three racial justice ballot initiatives.

— Monroe County elections commissioners said "the results are not in question," in response to concerns about computer glitches on Election Day.

— The Department of Transportation has scrapped a redesign of two dangerous avenues in Sunset Park.

— A Greenwich Village restaurant was accused of discriminating against Asian diners.

— More construction workers are employed now than they were a year ago .

— A Queens woman wants to make the Olympics’ first-ever breakdancing competition in 2024.

— A $3.7 million program will look to bolster the state’s supply chain for technology meant to address the impact of climate change .

SOCIAL DATA BY DANIEL LIPPMAN

HAPPY BIRTHDAY: ABC’s Josh Margolin … Robyn Patterson … Jim Kuhnhenn of WaVe Communications … Amanda Ashley Keating of Finsbury Glover Hering … CBS’ Alan He … Kristin Stiles … Jared Miller … David Howard King, communications director for the state inspector general

MAKING MOVES — M&T Bank has named Lisa Ceglia as senior vice president of government relations. She was previously vice president for government relations at Smiths Group PLC.

Real Estate

“ Tenants predict wins in 421a overcharge suits. Landlords beg to differ ,” by The Real Deal’s Suzannah Cavanaugh: “In the string of landlord-tenant lawsuits sparked by Housing Rights Initiative investigations, 421a overcharge cases have been a constant. Since its formation six years ago, the watchdog group has encouraged dozens of tenants to sue the owners of buildings that scored the lucrative property tax break, claiming their landlords registered inflated rents with the state housing authority to secure larger future increases than should be allowed. ...

"In the past year, landlords have scored victories in three of those suits, and landlord attorneys believe those rulings will be upheld on appeal. Why, then, has HRI kept encouraging tenants to file complaints alleging the same type of fraud? As landlords celebrated an Appellate Division win last December, tenants also pocketed a favorable decision, one which HRI claims could set a precedent for 421a overcharge lawsuits to come.”

Follow us on Twitter