Hello. Hola. Bonjour/Hi: Three Amigos on standby

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Wednesday Nov 10,2021 11:00 am
A daily look inside Canadian politics and power.
Nov 10, 2021 View in browser
 
Ottawa Playbook

By Zi-Ann Lum and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK, we’re your hosts, Zi-Ann Lum and Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, will elbow bumps pre-empt a Three Amigo handshake? Who is who in the Shadow Cabinet — and what does it mean? A proposed deal for the COP26 climate talks. Plus, the Bank of Canada governor talks change.

DRIVING THE DAY

President Joe Biden holds a virtual bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

President Joe Biden holds a virtual bilateral meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in the Roosevelt Room of the White House, Tuesday, Feb. 23, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) | Evan Vucci/AP Photo

THREE AMIGOS RIDE AGAIN — An in-person summit featuring Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU, Mexican President ANDREW MANUEL LOPEZ ORBADO and U.S. President JOE BIDEN is in the works for as early as next week — the first North American leaders’ summit since 2016.

A senior Canadian government official would only tell Playbook that wheels are in motion. The White House also stonewalled queries. But a senior Mexican official tells POLITICO’s SABRINA RODRIGUEZ a summit is being planned for Washington D.C. with details expected to be made public today.

When the Three Amigos last met in Ottawa, it was commemorated with an awkward three-way handshake between Trudeau, former U.S. president BARACK OBAMA and former Mexican president ENRIQUE PEÑA NIETO. Resurrecting the summit checks off an item on the U.S.-Canada roadmap that pledged to revive the meetings.

The trilateral talks will pick up after some globe-shifting events including the presidency of DONALD TRUMP and the Covid-19 pandemic. Protectionism was high on the minds of leaders then. It’s likely to loom large over the agenda again as the three countries figure out how to deliver on promises of North American climate , energy and defense strategies without tripping over USMCA and trade roadblocks in the form of Biden’s “Buy American” strategy.

The matrix of protectionism policies and global carbon pricing regimes is making the trade landscape hard to read. World Trade Organization director-general NGOZI OKONJO-IWEALA called it an issue of fragmentation during a COP26 panel with Trudeau last week . “We have about 69 carbon pricing regimes now. If you add the [Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism] … as the WTO, [what] we are hearing increasingly from business is that they are finding this very difficult to navigate.” Some WTO members are concerned it’s “disguised protectionism,” which could impact exports.

COALITION INCANTATIONS — After ERIN O’TOOLE repeated his warnings of a Liberal-NDP coalition for a second day, NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH brushed off the claims as the Conservative leader “making stuff up.” All eyes are on Singh as he returns to his role as kingmaker in this new session of Parliament.

— There are no discussions about a coalition, Singh told reporters Tuesday, adding the proposition of one is a “firm no” from him. “There's not going to be any coalition at all,” he said, adding that there are no current discussions about the NDP entertaining a confidence and supply agreement to prop Trudeau’s Liberal minority government. “They shouldn't expect our support and take it for granted on anything.”

— In related reading: The CBC's AARON WHERRY suggests talk of the non-coalition may serve as a timely distraction for O'Toole. And from The Star's ALTHIA RAJ: Erin O’Toole is using an imaginary Liberal-NDP alliance to hide his own problems.

 

DON’T MISS THE HALIFAX INTERNATIONAL SECURITY FORUM: Back in person for the first time since 2019, tune in as international security leaders from democracies around the world discuss key challenges at the 13th annual Halifax International Security Forum live from Nova Scotia. As an official media partner, POLITICO will livestream the conversation beginning at 3 p.m. on November 19. Check out the full three-day agenda is here.

 
 

CRITIC CHOICES — O'Toole unveiled his House leadership and shadow cabinet. Judging the new group's merits based on assorted demographic breakdowns of who made the cut — and who didn't — would be crude. And any reporter who dwells only on the math of it all risks getting called out for it . But Cabinet gets the same treatment, so we're here to crunch the numbers on its shadows across the aisle.

— House leaders: The eight Tories who will lead their flock into parliamentary battle include two Tories apiece from Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. O'Toole's deputy leader, CANDICE BERGEN, is the only woman among 22 in caucus elevated to the senior team. Three of the octet — deputy House leader MICHAEL BARRETT, chief whip BLAKE RICHARDS and caucus secretary ERIC DUNCAN — endorsed O'Toole's leadership campaign.

— Shadow ministers: O'Toole picked MPs from every province except P.E.I., where Liberals swept all four seats. He seems to have aimed for proportional representation. Ontario's share of critics — 32.6 percent — nearly matches the province's 31.1 percent share of caucus. Alberta and Saskatchewan are slightly underrepresented, while B.C. and Quebec are slightly overrepresented.

Men make up a tick more than four-fifths of the caucus, and a mere three-quarters of the shadow cabinet.

— Loyalty to the leader: Thirteen MPs who endorsed O'Toole's leadership run are in the shadow cabinet. But 15 of them endorsed MacKay. And another 15 who threw their weight behind O'Toole aren't on the list this time. But don't conclude they were simply cast aside. Take Saskatoon MP COREY TOCHOR. He says he removed himself from consideration : "I had requested not to be reappointed and will be instead focusing my efforts on nuclear and SMR advocacy."

Protest signs outside COP26 pavilion

Alastair Grant/AP Photo

COP26 DRAFT DEAL — A proposed deal for the COP26 climate talks laments countries' failure to align their targets with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and calls on them to submit new pledges in 2022, POLITICO's KARL MATHIESEN reports from Glasgow this morning.

Here is the text, which was released earlier today.

Cue a fierce three-day debate among the almost 200 countries represented in Scotland, before the conference is scheduled to end Friday. Mathiesen writes: "The deal as drafted has no guarantee of passing and is likely to face stiff opposition."

CULTURE CHANGE — Bank of Canada governor TIFF MACKLEM closed the show at the third annual Conference on Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking. Macklem did what any good textbook on speeches recommends. He opened with a joke: "The issue of diversity and inclusion is very close to my heart," he said. "And when a central bank governor says something's close to their heart, what do they do? They give a speech about it."

Macklem acknowledged the obvious: Central bankers have a long way to go to be truly diverse and properly inclusive.

These three quotes stood out from his 10-minute closing remarks on Tuesday to the gathering of colleagues from the U.S., U.K. and Europe:

— This isn't overreach: "Chair [JEROME] POWELL kicked off the conference by observing that entrenched inequalities prevent some of our citizens from fully participating in labor markets. ... This conversation has sparked a debate about whether central banks are expanding their mandates. Whether we're overreaching, getting distracted from our focus on inflation targeting, and even a criticism that we should stay in our lane. My own view is that we are tasked with serving our citizens, not some of our citizens."

— Straight to the people: "In this new world of ubiquitous information, we need to develop a direct channel to speak to people. That means being more accessible and more relatable. … We want to increase our accountability and relevance through clear, relatable communications. Trust comes when everyone understands the actions we are taking, and why."

— The inequity of printing money: "Quantitative easing can boost wealth by increasing the value of assets, such as the investments Canadians have in their retirement savings plans and company pension plans. But of course, these assets aren't distributed entirely evenly across society. As a result, QE can widen wealth inequality."

Watch Macklem's full remarks.

TALKIN’ ‘BOUT OUR GENERATION — Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND takes the stage today to address the Toronto Global Forum on the “future of the Canadian and world economy.” A hypothetical topic for a government minister who has made it a habit to not answer hypothetical questions.

— If you’re at the conference: POLITICO’s own JOHN YEARWOOD is hosting a fireside chat with Infosys President RAVI KUMAR about the future of work.

NEW LINE 5 LINES — White House spokesperson KARINE JEAN-PIERRE said ongoing discussions between Canada and the U.S. shouldn't be interpreted as an indication they’re thinking about shutting it down. “That is something that we're not going to do,” she said. Jean-Pierre called Canada “a close ally — a key partner in energy trade as well as efforts to address the climate crisis and protect the environment.”

— The 68-year-old pipeline is at the heart of a dispute between Michigan and Canada. Formal negotiations have yet to be announced related to Michigan Governor GRETCHEN WHITMER’s legal battle to shut down the Line 5. Happening concurrently, but independently, an engineering study continues to evaluate a proposed tunnel to house a new 30-inch pipeline, replacing the one submerged in the Straits of Mackinac to address concerns about potential oil spills.

PRAIRIE SOVEREIGNTY — Saskatchewan Premier SCOTT MOE doubled down on his “nation within a nation” pitch after his comments to radio host ROY GREEN earlier this week picked up some steam. The Saskatchewan Party leader is asking for more provincial autonomy on policing, taxation, internationational relations, firearms regulation and immigration. Moe’s grievances with Ottawa were heard by O’Toole, who again accused Trudeau of being “a threat to our national unity.”

THE WEIGHT OF THE GAVEL — Barely 24 hours into her new role, Liberal Caucus Chair BRENDA SHANAHAN told Playbook her predecessor, FRANCIS SCARPALEGGIA, has been giving her advice — “mostly technical” — about how to run a smooth hybrid meeting during a pandemic. “We’ve all seen those gaffes on Zoom,” she said.

While most Liberals traveled to Ottawa Monday for the party’s first caucus meeting since the election, between 20 to 30 MPs opted to join via Zoom. Those who attended in person had to lock their phones and wearables at the door, #confidentiality. “You can't be on your phone, sitting on a park bench somewhere, participating in national caucus meetings,” Shanahan said, before noting some exceptional circumstances because #pandemic. “We all love it when somebody’s kid comes on the Zoom screen. It certainly brightens up the meeting.”

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will be sworn in Wednesday as MP for Papineau, Quebec.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND addresses the Toronto Global Forum, as mentioned above.

— Trade Minister MARY NG is in Geneva to meet with World Trade Organization partners.

— Industry Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is in Brussels.

MARCI IEN, minister for women and gender equality and youth, will be in Halifax.

MEDIA ROOM

— From our colleagues in Europe this morning: EU’s Vestager wins Google Shopping case.

— The Globe's STEVEN CHASE reports on STEPHEN HARPER's comments to the Canada West Foundation on Tuesday. The former PM said current climate-change policy unfairly singles out "certain parts of the country."

— One you might not want to read: ALEXIS MADRIGAL in The Atlantic: Getting back to normal is only possible until you test positive.

And another from WILLIAM RALSTON in Wired: “A mental health startup built its business on easy-to-use technology. Patients joined in droves. Then came a catastrophic data breach.”

ALEX HIMELFARB shares thoughts on big change. No. 1: “Know the obstacles and have strategies for overcoming them.”

— In case you’ve not already read, here’s Maclean’s Ottawa bureau chief SHANNON PROUDFOOT: The pandemic is breaking parents.

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PROZONE

If you’re a Pro , catch ZI-ANN LUM and SUE ALLAN in our Canada PM newsletter: Three Amigos planning to meet in D.C.

In other news for Pros:
White House: Talks with Canada 'not an indicator' of Line 5 shutdown.
COP26 to exhort pledge to end combustion engine cars by 2040.
Putting a target on the back of oil and gas at COP26.
Inside the bitter, nasty feud over making daylight saving time permanent.
Global climate adaptation program hits record contribution.
Facebook places new restrictions on ad targeting.

PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Olympic champion ANDRE DE GRASSE. Former Nova Scotia premier STEPHEN MCNEIL, former diplomat MARC-ANDRÉ BLANCHARD, Bloc MP XAVIER BARSALOU-DUVAL, Sen. KIM PATE, former senator MAC HARB and Conservative MP LEN WEBBER also celebrate today.

Spotted: Ambassador-designate DAVID COHEN with KIRSTEN HILLMAN, Canada’s ambassador to the U.S. … Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA is in Glasgow for the last half of COP26 where he found some time to chat with U.S. Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG before making way for Transport Day … Honorary Canadian MALALA YOUSAFZAI celebrating marriage with a small nikkah ceremony … Teen reporter WYATT SHARPE in conversation with former NDP leader THOMAS MULCAIR ... DAVID MOSCROP!!!

Movers and shakers: LUIZA SAVAGE is taking on the role of Executive Editor for Growth at POLITICO … Former Vancouver mayor GREGOR ROBERTSON picked up the Gulbenkian Prize for Humanity on behalf of the Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Emergency, h/t National Observer.

The first shortlist for the Writers' Trust Balsillie Prize for Public Policy: ANDRE PICARD, JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD, DAN BREZNITZ and GREGOR CRAIGIE.

Media moves: GEOFFREY MORGAN is leaving the Financial Post to join Bloomberg News.

ASK US ANYTHING

What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Any questions about the next session of Parliament? Send it all our way.

TRIVIA

Tuesday’s answer: The official flower of Prince Edward Island is the Lady’s Slipper.

Props to GARY ALLEN, BEN ROTH, who looked up the answer on a tea towel, GANGA WIGNARAJAH, LAURA JARVIS, PAUL KAISER, MICHAEL MACDONALD, WAYNE UTTLEY, JOANNA PLATER, LEIGH LAMPERT, KATHLEEN WALSH, MATTHEW MANN, WAYNE FLEMING, MARK GREENAN, BARRE CAMPBELL and to FAYE ROBERTS, who admits that she had to ask an Islander.

Wednesday’s question: Name the leader who went for a run with PM Trudeau while in Ottawa for the Three Amigos summit in 2016.

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

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Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, editor Sue Allan and Andy Blatchford.

 

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