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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada WELCOME TO OTTAWA PLAYBOOK. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. It's Thursday, which means it's been 24 hours since the latest StatsCan inflation bomb dropped in the nation's capital. Plus, Playbook hears from key party policy wonks about how their work has changed over the years. |  | Driving the Day | | SURE, "TRANSITORY" — Every time Statistics Canada drops a new inflation report, journalists and economists eagerly anticipate reaction from two people: Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM, and whichever Cabinet minister is first to a mic. Wednesday's report served up plenty of fodder. Year-over-year inflation was up 4.8 percent in December, a tick higher than the 4.7 percent figure in both of the last two StatsCan monthly reports — and the highest mark since 1991. — What the economists say: The conventional wisdom blames spiking consumer demand in reopened economies and congested supply chains that can't keep up. The big question: How long will it last? The bankers ventured a few guesses. BMO's DOUG PORTER: "Make no mistake, inflation looks to have plentiful staying power, with oil prices on the march, firms reporting intense labor shortages, and core inflation grinding up." Scotiabank's RENÉ LALONDE: "After 2023, inflation is expected to ease back to the underlying trend, which is likely to be above target due to the impact of excess demand in 2023 and beyond." CIBC's ANDREW GRANTHAM: "A few weeks ago we may have been tempted to call a peak in inflation at this point. However, a reacceleration in energy prices, transportation issues impacting food costs and a strengthening once again in monthly house price gains suggest that we could grind a little higher still, before seeing a deceleration starting around spring time." Most bank economists expect Macklem to seriously consider an interest rate hike, though they're split on exactly how soon it'll come. Some are betting on next week. — Enter the politics: Tory finance critic PIERRE POILIEVRE preempted Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU 's scheduled morning press conference with his own presser. His message, as ever, was that Trudeau's fiscal policy (i.e. spending) and Macklem's monetary policy (i.e. quantitative easing) was to blame. Trudeau stuck to well-worn lines on the bigger picture. “The inflation challenge … is a global challenge linked to, obviously, this pandemic and the path out of it, but also linked to significant disruptions in supply chains around the world,” he told reporters. Don't count on that kind of academic vernacular doing much to quell the opposition's appetite for persistent hard questions. They can read polls that peg cost of living as a leading concern. Inflation could dominate until the House rises in June unless StatsCan has better news one of these months. — Overstimulated? Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX threw a wrench in the government's spending plans with a Wednesday report that questioned the need for billions in planned fiscal stimulus. Giroux looked at the labor-driven "fiscal guardrails" that were supposed to guide the government's thinking on when to wind down Covid-fueled stimulus — and found a diminished case for more spending. ROBERT ASSELIN , a former adviser to the Trudeau government who's now a senior VP at the Business Council of Canada, sent up a flare. “There are warning signs on pursuing aggressive government spending in the short term,” he said. “The challenge that lies ahead is to not let policy errors harm the impressive recovery we have seen over the last few months.” BUT WHERE IS CHRYSTIA FREELAND? The finance minister hasn't released a public itinerary for two weeks. Freeland last made major remarks on Jan. 5, when she encouraged struggling Canadian workers to embrace federal Covid benefits. A week later, she tweeted about the repayment deadline extension for the Canada Emergency Business Account that gives entrepreneurs extra liquidity. But she's been largely out of sight, out of mind. No doubt the finance minister and her team are busy behind the scenes. She has a lengthy mandate letter, she vice-chairs a top Cabinet committee, and there's a lot riding on her next budget. (Translation: She's in a lot of meetings.) But the problem of persistent inflation and the challenge of winding down stimulus fall squarely in her bailiwick. It might be time to face the cameras. | | AROUND THE HILL | | INDU COURSE — The House industry committee will meet at 3:30 today at the behest of Tories ED FAST, MICHAEL KRAM, TRACY GRAY and BERNARD GÉNERÉUX — as well as NDP MP BRIAN MASSE. — The order of the day: The opposition will demand to know why the Liberals didn't conduct a national security review before approving a Chinese state-owned firm's takeover of critical mineral miner Neo Lithium. The MPs will want to hear from a Cabinet minister. Playbook's easy money is on Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE. — The defense: Halifax MP ANDY FILLMORE, Champagne's parliamentary secretary, is the top Liberal on the committee. It'll be up to the chair, three-term JOËL LIGHTBOUND, to keep things running smoothly. | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will receive a Covid briefing from Chief Public Health Officer THERESA TAM. He's also in "private meetings." — Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY will be in Brussels for a meeting with the EU's high representative for foreign affairs and security policy, JOSEP BORRELL. — Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and JULIE DABRUSIN, parliamentary secretary to the natural resources and environment ministers, will unveil Canada's strategy for satellite Earth observation at 12 p.m. — Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI, B.C. Justice Minister DAVID EBY, and DOUG WHITE, chair of the B.C. First Nations Justice Council, will "make an announcement regarding the revitalization of Indigenous legal traditions and elimination of systemic racism and discrimination." That starts at 10:45 Pacific. | | HOUSE BUSINESS | | — Liberal MP YVAN BAKER and eight other Liberal colleagues asked Government House Leader MARK HOLLAND to support a take-note debate on rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Holland didn't appear surprised. Six minutes later, he tweeted: "We will support prioritizing an urgent debate as soon as the House returns." Add it to the agenda for Monday, Jan. 31. | | PAPER TRAIL | | APEC EVENT PLANNING — Global Affairs is on the lookout for a Vancouver venue that can handle an April gathering of the APEC Business Advisory Council, a group of business executives from member nations of the Asia-Pacific economic forum. — In the flesh: The department expects 135 participants to attend the April 25-28 confab on the west coast, and the venue should offer up to 75 rooms per night for accommodations. Ottawa will cover all food and beverage costs, but the newly released tender stipulates that a gala dinner on April 26 should not run them more than C$139.13 per attendee. Scroll far enough in the tender and you'll even find the event's WiFi passwords. — Who's at the table: Every APEC nation gets three advisory council members. Canada's trio is JANET DE SILVA, the president and CEO of the Toronto Region Board of Trade; TIMOTHY DATTELS, partner and chair for Asia of TPG; and JOSEPH FUNG, managing partner of Saltagen Ventures. China is repped by HU HOUKUN , deputy chair of the Huawei Board of Directors and Rotating CEO of Huawei Technologies; LIU LIANGE, chair of the Bank of China; and NING GAONING, chair of Sinochem Holdings Corporation. The United States lists only one member: MARK BURKHALTER, CEO of Burkhalter International. — What it all means: Trudeau has repeatedly expressed a belief in better times ahead. What signals a return to normalcy more clearly than bustling convention space with international attendees? GUARDING ASYLUM SEEKERS — Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship and Canada (IRCC) published a tender this week that seeks security guards for 11 unnamed locations in Quebec. The successful bidder must provide up to 10 guards per shift, and staff the sites around the clock. — It's all about symptoms: The document reveals the tangled web of Covid policies that guide the federal management of asylum seekers. The Public Health Agency of Canada is responsible for accommodations for symptomatic asylum seekers who arrive at the border without a quarantine plan. IRCC's bailiwick includes asymptomatic and vaccinated arrivals. — A watchful eye: Individuals under quarantine can't do laundry, duck out for a smoke or take a health break without a guard by their side. "Security personnel providing escort services control must ensure that those escorted are within line-of-sight at all times," reads the tender. "The asylum seekers meals are delivered to their room." | | PERSPECTIVES | | ONTARIO'S STATE OF PLAY — In the days just before Ontario Premier DOUG FORD took a typically divisive approach to snowfall management, Abacus Data was in the field asking the province's voters about their intentions. — The PCs lead: The topline numbers will give migraines to anti-Ford progressive voters who want to be rid of the premier. Even as Ford's personal approval sinks to new pandemic depths, the Progressive Conservatives are well ahead of a divided opposition. Abacus pegs PC support at 37 percent, with Liberals (28) and New Democrats (25) dueling for second. Ford's team enjoys a huge advantage among older voters despite the premier's personal unpopularity in every region. | 
Provincial vote intentions by federal vote in the 2021 election, as measured by Abacus | Image courtesy of Abacus Data | — A Liberal problem: The pollster asked respondents who they favored in last year's federal election — and found warning signs for Ontario Liberals who hope for a resurgence. Eighty-four percent of federal Tory voters would stick with the PCs, while 88 percent of federal New Dem supporters side with the provincial cousins. But only two-thirds of those who voted federally for the Liberals support STEVEN DEL DUCA's party. The federal Liberal vote bleeds left and right in equal measure. | 
Ontario's desire for a change in government, as measured by Abacus | Image courtesy of Abacus Data | — The mood for change: Abacus always measures where voters stand on punting out the sitting government. Before Ontario's 2018 election, 63 percent "definitely" wanted KATHLEEN WYNNE out of office. As the province enters another election year, that number is only 50 percent — the same as the proportion of federal voters who wanted to boot out JUSTIN TRUDEAU last September. Abacus CEO DAVID COLETTO tells Playbook that dissatisfaction with Trudeau's Liberals was spread across the opposition parties, and no single party effectively galvanized momentum for change. But he says Ford's government should be more concerned than Trudeau: "In Ontario, most of the change voters are voting for left or center-left parties, so there's a greater probability that consolidation could happen with one of them. So I'd say that it all depends on the context, but the PCs need to be careful. Certainly, the desire for change is lower than in 2018 with the Wynne Liberals, but at 50 percent the PCs are on the edge. I'd say if that number gets closer to 54-55 percent, the PCs could be in real trouble." | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | DAN MADER, a founding partner of Loyalist Public Affairs, was a key architect of the 2021 Tory platform. ANGELLA MACEWEN, a senior economist at CUPE National, ran for the NDP in Ottawa Centre. They both answered this question: What is one way the process of developing party platforms changed over the years? MADER: There used to be an assumption that each party would release its full platform after the halfway point of the campaign. That is no longer the case, as the Conservatives demonstrated by releasing their full platform on the first full day of the 2021 campaign. There are pros and cons to both options: an early release can create momentum and gives candidates something to say on all issues. Release later provides more flexibility to respond to events during the campaign. Campaign teams now need to decide which way to go and, if planning to release early, get a lot more work done in the pre-writ period. MACEWEN: In the 1993 federal election, both the NDP and the Liberals sought to boost their fiscal credibility by including fully costed election promises in their platforms for the first time — the NDP even commissioned an independent economic analysis of their platform. A detailed and technical costing of platform promises within a fiscal framework is now the norm. With the new Parliamentary Budget Office process that provides a common fiscal baseline and validates selected platform promises, I think we’ll continue to see an evolution in how political parties use platforms to demonstrate their technical capacity and fiscal priorities. On Tuesday, Jan. 25, Dan and Angella will be joined by TYLER MEREDITH, the finance minister's director of economic strategy and planning, and moderator JENNIFER DITCHBURN for an upcoming webinar: Crashing the Party: An Insider’s Look at Creating Political Platforms. The talk will be held on Zoom starting at 1 eastern. Attendance is free but registration is required. | | ASK US ANYTHING | | What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? Send it all our way. | | PROZONE | | Pro s should not miss ANDY BLATCHFORD’s Pro Canada PM memo: How far will Tiff Macklem need to go? In other headlines for s: — Canada's inflation rate hits 4.8 percent.
— Biden backs breaking up Build Back Better to pass climate provisions.
— Germany’s Scholz calls for G-7 climate club.
— China’s Tencent, TikTok added to tech platform antitrust bill.
— Macron wants the EU Charter updated to reinforce environment protections. | | MEDIA ROOM | | — HEATHER SCOFFIELD writes in The Star: Justin Trudeau didn’t create Canada’s inflation problem — and there’s not much he can do about it — ALTHIA RAJ makes the case for saving 24 Sussex Drive. — LISA VAN DUSEN pens a letter to a young political junkie. — The Narwhal’s EMMA MCINTOSH writes on the not insignificant challenges of dealing with nuclear waste. — PAUL WELLS parses a readout from the prime minister on Ukraine. “My point here today is to emphasize the gap between the tone the PMO hopes to conjure and the effect it actually produces.” | | Playbookers | | Birthdays: HBD to ANDREA BAILLIE, editor-in-chief of The Canadian Press. Spotted: The ubiquitous WYATT SHARPE, on Breakfast Television Wednesday morning. … CCGS HUDSON, the oldest ship in the Coast Guard's fleet, decommissioned after 59 years. Movers and shakers: TIM MURPHY, formerly the chief of staff to prime minister PAUL MARTIN , is the new CEO of McMillan. The firm shuffled its leadership team. DANIEL UJCZO has been appointed honorary consul to Ohio. ELIZABETH SPEHAR has been appointed assistant secretary-general for peacebuilding support at the United Nations … ANDIE HABERT is leaving the heritage team to become issues manager for Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO. … Former Ontario finance minister CHARLES SOUSA has joined Loyalist Public Affairs … LAUREN TEDESCO has been promoted to senior VP at the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association. Media mentions: TEMUR DURRANI is joining The Globe’s Report on Business to report on tech … ERICA LENTI is leaving Xtra Magazine, just a couple of weeks after RACHEL GIESE departed for The Globe and Mail. | | TRIVIA | | Wednesday’s answer: HILLARY CLINTON brought her ice skates on Air Force One in 1995 so she could skate on the Rideau Canal during U.S. President BILL CLINTON’s state visit to Ottawa. Props to TESSA SEAGER, ETHEL FORESTER, SIMON HARRIS, BRIGID HAYES, KEN HASSKAMP, SHALOM LIPNER, BRANDON VAN DAM, RODDY MCFALL, ZEV LEWIS, CULLY ROBINSON, DAVID VALENTIN, BARRE CAMPBELL, LEIGH LAMPERT, GARY ALLEN, MICHAEL MACDONALD, CHRIS LALANDE, DAN MCCARTHY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DALE BARBOUR, ALYSON FAIR and BOB GORDON. Thursday’s question: Another American in Ottawa made news with this tweet, “Snowing in Ottawa on April 15th. Seriously?” Seriously. Name this person. Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and Zi-Ann Lum.
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