UNDERDOG FIGHT — The fourth major candidate for the Tory leadership officially launched his campaign at a packed hall in a fast-growing Toronto suburb that has voted Liberal three elections in a row. PATRICK BROWN, the mayor of Brampton, a former disgraced Ontario Progressive Conservative leader and former backbench MP, tossed his hat into the ring. Ask a booster about Brown and you can bank on a version of every underdog's favorite catchphrase: "Don't underestimate him.” The thing about this young campaign is every major candidate's camp is saying the same thing. — JEAN CHAREST seemingly came out of nowhere to become premier of Quebec, as journalists who covered him at the time keep tweeting and tweeting. — Few anticipated LESLYN LEWIS's strong third-place finish when she ran for the party leadership in 2020. "Do not ignore her," MICHAEL DIAMOND, the man who ran the campaigns that delivered DOUG FORD the PC leadership and the premier's office, tells Playbook. "She's more of a contender than Mr. Charest. She should be covered as such." — PIERRE POILIEVRE shocked Liberals when he unseated one of their Cabinet ministers, DAVID PRATT, in his first election in 2004. He won six more, even as his outer Ottawa riding became progressively more suburban and was supposed to be in play for the Liberals. He squeaked by in 2015 and has since expanded his margin. BROWN'S PATH TO VICTORY — Brampton's mayor easily filled the Queen's Manor Event Centre within his city's limits. But don't make the mistake, say Tories who've watched him in action, of thinking Brown's persuasive powers are limited to the suburbs of the Peel, York and Durham regions that surround Toronto. He'll work to sign up hundreds of thousands of new members all over Canada. — The 514: An ERIN O'TOOLE campaigner recalled Brown's influence on the O'Toole vs. MacKay race in 2020. One of Brown's keys to victory in the 2015 Ontario PC leadership race was intense campaigning in Tamil, Hindu, Sikh, Muslim and Filipino communities. (He also benefited from social conservative voters, as his detractors reminded Playbook.) Five years later, this campaigner remembered Brown rallying new Tory members from similar networks to PETER MACKAY 's side on the island of Montreal. MacKay lost them to O'Toole, but Brown's groundwork helped produce plenty of first-ballot wins. "His reach goes well beyond Ontario, and frankly goes well beyond suburban and urban Canada," says Diamond. "There are networks he's established through some of the outreach work he's done that show up in places that I think would surprise people." Diamond's example: When Brown ran for the PC leadership, he beat CHRISTINE ELLIOTT in Stormont–Dundas–South Glengarry, a mostly rural riding that includes Cornwall, Ont. (and is now repped by MP ERIC DUNCAN). — Key demos: Brown's opposition to Quebec's Bill 21 could make him generally unpopular in the province, but one observer noted that he doesn't have to be popular everywhere — only with enough members to put him over the top in as many ridings as possible. His pitch for religious freedom could win over new party members in key Montreal ridings. Don't be surprised to see him in that city on a regular basis. — One outcome: The party uses a "single-transferable vote" method. Every voting member ranks the candidates on their ballot (they don't have to rank every candidate). The candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated after each round of voting. Their votes are automatically reallocated to remaining candidates according to the second choices listed on each ballot. Every riding is worth up to 100 points, which means a maximum of 33,800 points across Canada. (Ridings with fewer than 100 members are only allocated as many points as they have members.) The process repeats until a winner has a majority of points. Here is how a friend of Brown sees it: Charest takes Quebec on the first ballot. Lewis drops off, and her votes largely end up with Poilievre. In the next round, Charest loses too much ground and is eliminated. Most of his votes funnel to Brown. That sets up a fourth-ballot showdown with Poilievre. Winner takes all. — His senior team: Playbook learned over the weekend that SEAN SCHNELL , who has worked as a constituency assistant to MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, is playing a senior role on Brown's campaign. He's based in Alberta. FRED DELOREY is executive chair of the campaign. DeLorey last ran O'Toole's leadership campaign in 2020 before taking the reins of the Tory election campaign last year. SET THE TONE — Poilievre was in Brown's Greater Toronto Area backyard over the weekend, stopping in at a jammed restaurant in Richmond Hill before heading to Vaughan, Oakville and, yes, Brampton. His campaign launched a two-front war on Sunday morning. As Brown walked onto the Brampton stage, adviser JENNI BYRNE tweeted an attack vid that claimed the mayor would "say and do anything" to get elected — the same knock she (and many others) made against ERIN O'TOOLE in the middle of the last federal campaign. The broadside racked up tens of thousands of views in its first few hours. A similar attack Poilievre leveled against Charest — "just another Liberal" — found a similar audience. "We may support different candidates, but the trash talk will take the entire party into the gutter," said Charest supporter TASHA KHEIRIDDIN in response to the video. "There will be bad blood for years after this race," tweeted former NDP national director KARL BÉLANGER. Playbook's wisdom: This bad blood is nothing new. — So much baggage: Brown is insistent that his mortifying near-death experience as a politician is in the rear-view mirror. Back in 2018, he faced two sets of sexual misconduct allegations that forced him to resign as party leader the same night they were broadcast on CTV News. Brown sued the network for C$8 million. The two sides settled a few days ago. Brown's defenders claim the allegations were unfounded. He launched his campaign as the anti-cancel culture candidate. CTV did add "regrets" to the top of its explosive story for "key details" that "required correction," but most of the published details of the allegations appear to remain unchanged. No money changed hands as part of the settlement. NOTES FROM A TELL-ALL: Brown published a blistering memoir in the wake of his hasty exit from Queen's Park. "Takedown" hit store shelves less than a year later. (It's currently on sale . Playbook nabbed a signed copy.) The book's pages are filled with score-settling. He goes after rivals who wronged him and staffers who turned away. He also reflects on lessons learned. Here are three that may come in handy as he seeks the Tory leadership using a retooled campaign playbook: — On big shifts: "The biggest lesson I learned is that you can only move a political party as fast as its members are willing to be moved. Some of the moves I made were done much too quickly. I was trying to change the nature of the conservative movement overnight. You cannot take a party that includes people who hate unions, and are homophobic or who are climate-change deniers and move them to a new centrist party overnight." — On surprises: "[DAN] ROBERTSON, my former chief strategist, insisted that I make a splash at the first policy convention by announcing my belief in a carbon tax. I believe now that it was advice I should not have taken. Oh sure, it garnered a great deal of media attention and was highly successful as a communications tactic; however, as a means to start a serious conversation, it backfired terribly. It caused the party internal agony and division." — On staffers: "We politicians leave far too much power in the hands of our hired strategists, who, rather than guide us, script us. We are often the chess pieces, while these unelected officials control the board. They are often too focused on tactics and too dismissive of principles. Frequently, they are too busy settling scores, rather than trying to fix problems." JOKE OF THE DAY: Charest found a kindred spirit in NFL legend TOM BRADY, who un-retired Sunday after realizing he had "unfinished business" on the field. Quipped the Tory hopeful: "I feel the same way, Tom."
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