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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Zi-Ann Lum and Maura Forrest | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick l Follow Politico Canada Ottawa Playbook will not publish Friday. We’ll be back in your inboxes April 18 at 6 a.m. Welcome to the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Zi-Ann Lum and Maura Forrest. Today, we pull out quotable quotes from CHRYSTIA FREELAND's budget road show on Wednesday. Plus, we have hard lessons learned on Tory leadership campaigns past — and entertaining findings from government-commissioned polling on the RCAF's logo.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE FIRST THING — The Bank of Canada's governor, TIFF MACKLEM, raised interest rates by 50 basis points early Wednesday. POLITICO's ANDY BLATCHFORD writes: "Canada, like countries around the world, is wrestling with a challenging inflationary cocktail of stubborn supply chain disruptions, surging post-pandemic demand and the major economic consequences of Russia’s assault on Ukraine." — Problem areas: Andy highlighted this passage from the bank's monetary policy report : "Uncertainty remains high about both the impact of China’s 'zero‑COVID' policy and the fragility of the property sector. Either of these factors could dampen growth by more than expected over the projection horizon."
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Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland participates in a media availability to discuss Canadian sanctions on Russia on Tuesday, March 1, 2022. | Justin Tang/The Canadian Press | OTTAWA ON LINE 1 — Deputy PM Freeland disclosed Wednesday that she speaks daily to Ukrainian Prime Minister DENYS SHMYHAL and the country’s finance minister, SERHIY MARCHENKO. “They like me to call them at the end of their cabinet meeting, which is usually around 11:30 or midnight their time, so it's our afternoon,” she said during an armchair chat with the Vancouver Board of Trade. — Big spenders: Freeland told the in-person audience that she has no regrets about the government spending an “extraordinary amount of money” to fight Covid. “When I consider the counterfactual of having spent less money and having a weaker economy, I would do it again in a minute,” she said. Later in the afternoon, the DPM joined PERRIN BEATTY and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce for a fireside chat. During the virtual confab, Freeland shared with the business crowd why she’s losing sleep. “If you were to ask what keeps me up at night, I’d say, China's zero-Covid approach and the very severe lockouts we're seeing right now,” she said, echoing the central bank's fretting about China. “These inevitably have an impact on supply chains around the world, inevitably drive inflation.” — Itinerary: This morning in Alberta, Freeland will tour a carbon capture, utilization and storage research and development facility. She'll be joined by local MP GEORGE CHAHAL. Once her official duties in Calgary are done, she plans to spend Easter weekend in Alberta with her dad. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook to you today? Are you ready to be a forwarder, not a forwardee? Click here to sign up to this pretty good (but definitely free) newsletter.
| | CONSERVATIVE CORNER | | — Endorsement watch: Chalk another one up for PIERRE POILIEVRE, who scored the support of REGAN WATTS, a longtime Hill staffer whose last job in government was JIM FLAHERTY's director of strategic planning. Fighting words: Watts explained his choice in a Medium post, and tossed in a prediction: "If he can be thoughtful in his tendency to reach to clobber when a deft jab will get the job done, Poilievre will become Prime Minister of Canada." — Speaking of the purported frontrunner: Poilievre is in Edmonton tonight at the River Cree Resort and Casino. The venue's listed capacity is 2,500, but look for plenty of photos about overflow rooms for a crowd bursting at the seams. — Here's the latest from CAMPBELL CLARK in The Globe: Ben Harper scorches Jean Charest, while Pierre Poilievre’s team nurses a grudge. — Crowd sourcing: Former Trudeau whisperer GERRY BUTTS offered up an astute observation. "At this point, only the noun matters," he tweeted. "They’re establishing their candidate as a guy with a following because you know who has followers? Leaders. The rest is noise that helps make the main point." — Filter bubbles: The Macdonald-Laurier Institute's AARON WUDRICK wins Line of the Day for juxtaposing hot takes. "If I understand correctly, these big crowds showing up to see Poilievre are both meaningless, tiny fractions of the populace but also a menacing, existential threat to the very fabric of Canada."
| | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | LESSONS FROM CAMPAIGNS PAST — Tory leadership candidates have less than a week to apply for the job, which means the race is about to enter the next stage — a closed field that'll soon be preparing for official debates. As contenders — both real and perceived — ramp up events and tours, we asked former ERIN O'TOOLE deputy campaign manager MELANIE PARADIS to share her lessons learned from a failed bid in 2017 and victory in 2020. Over to her now: — Everybody’s a strategist: Campaigns will get volunteers claiming they would be of best use “developing strategy.” These folks want to be on a daily call about what’s going on, and they want to share their thoughts with the senior campaign team about every little thing you are doing. They take up a lot of your time and they confuse your team. But when you ask them to do something, they mysteriously get busy. They end up on “candidate advisory committees” working on “special projects” — glorified busywork that keeps them involved but out of the way. The sooner the better for those campaigns. — Twitter is not real life: Fewer than 15 percent of Canadians are active on Twitter and of that 15 percent, hardly any are CPC members. So, if you are using Twitter as your litmus test for what’s happening in the CPC leadership race, I have oceanfront property in Saskatchewan to sell you. Facebook, however, is where the real action is because that’s where our members are. Plus, it’s much easier to data-mine — i.e. collect useful information about users — because Facebook is (mostly) real people and Twitter is (often) not. And the emails. Hundreds of members will reply to campaign emails with questions or comments, which helps campaigns identify vote and single-issue voters to hone targeted communications. — Call me, maybe (definitely): There is a lot to be said about the massive rallies Pierre Poilievre is holding, and they are absolutely impressive. Clearly his campaign is focused on organizing rallies to sell memberships before the cutoff, after which he will undoubtedly drop the rallies and get on to the most important thing a candidate does to win a leadership race: make phone calls. Surrogates won’t do. It must be the candidate on the line, which shows respect to members and a willingness to listen to the grassroots. If a candidate speaks to a party member on the phone, nine times out of 10 they’ll mark them on their ranked ballot. Maybe not in first place, but at least on the ballot. Even if a member vehemently disagrees with your positions, they will respect that you were willing to talk to them one on one. It’s also a powerful way to correct any crap opponents are saying about you. — Now they're rolling: PATRICK BROWN starts his daily calls at 7:30 a.m., dialing into Newfoundland and Labrador, and ends his calls at 1:30 a.m. in British Columbia. He is also attending 10–20 events per day. People have received calls from JEAN CHAREST while he was waiting to board a flight or walking to his car — maximizing every spare minute — which helps explain why his campaign has already raised over C$1 million. Ontario MP SCOTT AITCHISON is also bringing the heat with an aggressive phone schedule. As is former MP LEONA ALLESLEV, and when people talk to her directly, they get interested. LESLYN LEWIS , however, has a strategic advantage here. She’s already talked to a lot of members on the phone. She called thousands in the 2020 race. It was easy for her to raise the C$300,000 entrance fees from that network. Many party members will be hearing from her directly for the second time — an even better motivator to vote.
| | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | | GRIM NORTHERN NUMBERS — Governor General MARY SIMON listed some figures that caught our attention during a speech this week for Queen’s University’s Tom Courchene Distinguished Speaker Series. Simon, who is Inuk and hails from Nunavik, was speaking about Canadians’ responsibility to the Arctic when she counted off these statistics from 2018: — 34 percent: Percentage of Inuit aged 25 to 64 who have earned a high school diploma, compared to 86 percent of all Canadians. — 70 percent: Percentage of Inuit households in Nunavut that are food insecure, compared to 8 percent nationally. — 72.4 years: Life expectancy for Inuit, compared to 82.9 years for non-Indigenous Canadians. — C$68,000: Difference in median income between Inuit and non-Indigenous people in Inuit Nunangat. — 5 to 25 times: Rate at which suicide in the four Inuit regions is more common than in Canada as a whole. “These are grim and unacceptable numbers, and one could easily lose hope,” Simon said. “For too long, policies were imposed by asking, ‘What do we think is best for Inuit people? For Indigenous peoples?’ We need to rephrase that question: ‘What do Inuit people believe is the best course for themselves?’ “One question takes agency away. The other gives it back.” Simon wrapped up with an Inuktitut word for which she said there is no direct translation: ajuinnata. “Its essence is a promise — never to give up,” she said. “It’s committing ourselves to action, no matter how daunting the cause may be.” WHAT JENNIFER HOWARD WANTS YOU TO READ — The chief of staff to JAGMEET SINGH boosted a thread by economist and former NDP candidate ANGELLA MACEWEN, who made the case for corporate tax hikes as a response to withering inflation.
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Today's budget tour takes cabmins everywhere. It's a long list: HARJIT SAJJAN will head to Simon Fraser University to talk about a certain 302-page fiscal plan (including the annexes). CARLA QUALTROUGH is in her riding of Delta, B.C. DAN VANDAL is in Yellowknife. MARCI IEN is in Edmonton. PATTY HAJDU is at Cowessess Wind and Solar Renewable Energy Development in Saskatchewan. JONATHAN WILKINSON is in Saskatoon. MARCO MENDICINO is in Barrie, Ontario. OMAR ALGHABRA is in Brampton. PABLO RODRIGUEZ is in Longueuil, Quebec. MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU is in Sherbrooke. PASCALE ST-ONGE is in the same region at a separate event. STEVEN GUILBEAULT is in Saint-Jérôme. SEAMUS O'REGAN is in P.E.I. KAMAL KHERA is in Gander, Newfoundland. 10 a.m. Defense Minister ANITA ANAND is at CFB Trenton for an announcement "regarding Canada's response to the situation in Ukraine." 1 p.m. Mountain Freeland will join a Canadian Federation of Independent Business "virtual armchair discussion" about, well, what do you think? 3:15 p.m. Mountain: Freeland and Chahal will talk to a local family about the budget. Calgary Mayor JYOTI GONDEK will join them. 9 p.m. Pacific Tory leadership hopeful LESLYN LEWIS is at the Seymour Golf & Country Club in Wilkinson's riding of North Vancouver, B.C.
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| | PAPER TRAIL | | HIGH-FLYING LANGUAGE — The 100th anniversary of the Royal Canadian Air Force may be two years away, but planning (and spending) is already underway at National Defence to probe Canadians’ enthusiasm about centennial celebrations. The department awarded Earnscliffe a C$79,000 contract for public opinion research to “provide a baseline to help identify Canadian public opinion of the RCAF.” — Survey says: A majority of respondents (73 percent) recognize the RCAF roundel logo, but only 22 percent were able to correctly identify it as the RCAF’s. Other organizations the RCAF’s logo was mistaken for: The Canadian Armed Forces/national defence department (9 percent), Winnipeg Jets (8 percent), Air Canada (8 percent), and “A specific federal political party” (6 percent). Pray tell, which “specific federal political party”? The report doesn’t say. But recall ERIN O’TOOLE changed the party’s logo — out with the old, in with the new — at the start of his tenure as Conservative leader. The former RCAF tactical navigator obviously drew inspiration from the air force’s roundel logo. The pollster's wordy alternative to the obvious is undoubtedly an oblique reference to the federal Conservatives. For that careful tactfulness, thank the public neutrality requirements for public opinion research reports.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — The Hub Dialogues features former Cabinet minister JAMES MOORE in conversation with SEAN SPEER. — On The Big Story pod: What's really driving inflation in Canada? — Bloomberg has an interview with TIFF MACKLEM. — "No one is going to fix housing" was the cheery conclusion of JEN GERSON's latest at The Line. "No government is ever going to 'fix' housing," she writes, "because the whole shady underbelly of our economy needs 'housing' to stay exactly as it is: an inflated asset bubble with prices rivaling the most dynamic cities on earth." — SAHIR KHAN and BRETT HOUSE joined Liberal MP NATE ERSKINE-SMITH to talk about the 2022 Budget. — One in three federal Cabinet ministers rents out investment properties, reports Global's AMANDA CONNOLLY. No, there's nothing illegal or inappropriate about earning that income. But Connolly's story is worth a read. We took a look through the ethics filings registry. Relatedly, Liberal MP ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN recently disclosed a rental property on trendy King Street West in downtown Toronto. It's not just a Liberal thing. Tory MP KELLY BLOCK rents out property in Saskatchewan. NDP MP ALEXANDRE BOULERICE does the same in Montreal. — Here's another real estate talker, posted by the CBC overnight: Russian billionaire is behind mansion that housed Harry and Meghan, leaked files show.
| | PROZONE | | For s, here’s our Pro Canada PM memo: Freeland: Canada facing ‘very powerful, very uncertain, global drivers.’ In other headlines for Pro readers:
— Microsoft president suggests digital regulatory agency.
— Macklem after extra-large rate hike: 'We have more work to do.'
— Steven Guilbeault, between The Rock and a hard place.
— New Omicron subvariants spreading in New York.
— Yellen warns China, calls for new trade deals with allies.
— Biden's shift from climate to oil rattles greens.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to Sen. PERCY MOCKLER. BOB SKELLY, JACQUES OLIVIER and GREG BYRNE also celebrate today. Spotted: 87 Canadian senators, sanctioned by Russia. The sarcasm came fast and furious. PAULA SIMONS: "I’ve always wanted to be blacklisted. Very proud to stand in such good company." … PETER BOEHM: "I have been sanctioned. Woe is me." Ontario Labor Minister MONTE MACNAUGHTON, owning the morning with a tweet that split the province into morning and evening showerers … Which side are you on? RYAN REYNOLDS throwing MAX FAWCETT a follow. Alliteration watch: The RCMP, naming the winners of a Name The Puppy contest that drew 11,000 entries. The first 13 pooches born at the police dog training center will be named Radar, Raven, Rayna, Reba, Rebel, Remi, Rex, Rigby, Rogue, Rosie, Roxy, Ruler and Ryder. Movers and shakers: It’s BRENDAN MARSHALL’s last day as a Mining Association of Canada VP, a new principal adviser role at Rio Tinto is calling … PAUL OLENIUK, formerly a lead writer in the OLO, takes on a new gig as GR manager for the First Nations Financial Management Board. JEANNINE RITCHOT is the new ADM for multilateral relations on PCO's intergovernmental affairs team: "As a federation, we face big challenges, from health care to climate change." CURTIS O'NYON from Global Public Affairs is repping Harbour Air Seaplanes on the Hill. They're looking for outreach "pertaining to the electrification of seaplanes." More on that backstory from The Logic. Solstice's GREG SENIUK is lobbying for the Northwest Territories Association of Communities. Priorities: housing, addiction and mental health, climate change, and infrastructure. From the ethics files: Liberal MP MIKE KELLOWAY, a parliamentary secretary whose bailiwick includes the Canadian Coast Guard, set up a conflict-of-interest screen that'll prevent him from furthering the private interests of his wife, CATHERINE WALSH-KELLOWAY, who … works for the Coast Guard. Media mentions: After 20 years, CBC Nunavut’s Tausuni Inuktitut-language radio announcer ASEENA MABLICK is retiring at the end of April … CATHERINE LANTHIER is Rad-Can’s new Ottawa-Gatineau news chief … Ici Première announced MARIE-LOUISE ARSENAULT will host a new talk show this fall called Tout peut arriver. The Toronto Star has named MARINA GLOGOVAC its new president and CEO. The Canadian Press’s STÉPHANE BLAIS and freelance journalist ROB CSERNYIK are the two winners of the 2022 Michener-Deacon Fellowships for Investigative Journalism. The Michener Awards Foundation announced Blais “will focus on the environmental impacts and economic benefits of mining lithium”; and Csernyik “will investigate the evolution of the relationship between gambling and suicides in Canada.”
| | TRIVIA | | Wednesday’s answer: Liberal MP PETER SCHIEFKE was the member of a Quebec pop group with a number one single, “Sauve-Moi.” Props to MATTHEW DON TRAPP, CHRIS MCCLUSKEY, ALAN KAN, ALYSON FAIR, SCOTT LOHNES, PIERRE PILOTE, BEN ROTH, HARRY MCKONE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, AMY BOUGHNER, JONATHAN KALLES, MATTHEW DUBÉ, DOUG PAGE, JOHN GUOBA and SCOTT LOHNES. Thursday’s question: Name the MP whose riding is home to the second largest Easter egg in the world. For bonus marks, tell us one more thing about that 2,500 kilogram pysanka. Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage, Ben Pauker and editor Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
