‘Alberta has always been chaos’

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Thursday May 19,2022 10:00 am
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Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Maura Forrest and Andy Blatchford

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Welcome to the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Maura Forrest and Andy Blatchford. JASON KENNEY is out as United Conservative Party leader. In extremely lower-key news, CHARLES and CAMILLA are on their final day of a quiet Canadian tour. Plus, ED FAST is off the Tory front bench after criticizing PIERRE POILIEVRE's plan to fire TIFF MACKLEM.

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DRIVING THE DAY

51.4% — That's how many United Conservative Party voters supported Alberta Premier JASON KENNEY's leadership in a mail-in review concluded Wednesday evening.

Days earlier, Kenney puffed his chest with reporters in Washington who dared ask about his political future. “I’ve never lost an election, and I don’t plan on doing so now,” he said.

— What happens next: UCP insiders quietly predicted Kenney would pass his own bar for victory, which was a simple majority of votes. Turns out he was bluffing. "I will respect the decision of the members in this leadership review," he said to loud applause from loyalists gathered at a post-result presser. Apparently they had no idea what was coming next.

A thin win "clearly is not adequate support to continue on as leader," he said. "And that is why tonight, I've informed the president of the party of my intention to step down as leader of the United Conservative Party."

The stunned crowd gasped and groaned.

— The real winner: Kenney won a narrow majority of the 34,298 votes cast. But BRIAN JEAN came out on top. Jean led the now-defunct Wildrose Party before its historic merger with the struggling Progressive Conservatives in 2017. Kenney beat Jean for the leadership of the new party that same year.

Jean eventually quit politics, but won a seat in the legislature in March. He has informally led the movement to dump the premier, though he's not alone.

— The other insurgent: Jean's predecessor as Wildrose leader was DANIELLE SMITH, another recent Kenney critic who's made noise about a political comeback . She said she'd seek the UCP leadership if Kenney went down. Lo and behold, she's planning a presser at 11 this morning in Alberta.

— The next premier: The most urgent question when the UCP caucus wakes up this morning — if they slept at all last night — is who runs the show until the next party leader is elected. The infinitely connected Calgary Herald columnist, DON BRAID , floated names of potential successors in a Wednesday column published before the result.

Braid's column was flush with potential interim premiers: NATE GLUBISH, DEMETRIOS NICOLAIDES, RAJAN SAWHNEY, RIC MCIVER, NATHAN NEUDORF and SONYA SAVAGE. No doubt they worked the phones late into the night.

Finance Minister TRAVIS TOEWS and Jobs Minister DOUG SCHWEITZER are likely to hold their fire until there’s a leadership race to fill the job on a permanent basis, Braid predicts.

— The dissidents: The next question is what to do about a clear divide in caucus between MLAs who stood by Kenney and the 18-strong faction that vehemently opposed a new round of Covid public health measures in April 2021 — i.e. the rift that led to Kenney's resignation.

— Meanwhile, on the left wing: A conservtive party in disarray opens the door to an NDP win in the next election. RACHEL NOTLEY's New Democrats have led in the polls for months. They're holding a presser today at 12:30 Alberta time.

Notley was gracious as the man who defeated her suffered the first loss of his political career. 'The work is never easy. The days are long and often difficult, as I’m sure today is," she tweeted shortly after Kenney dropped his bomb. "I wish Jason the best."

The provincial election is scheduled for next May, but could come as early as this fall. A new UCP leader could call a snap election and swiftly seek a new mandate. Or they could use the next year to heal the party's scars.

There will be as many predictions as there are pundits.

— Prescient words: “It will be chaos,” a former Kenney staffer predicted earlier this week. “Alberta has always been chaos.”

— A moment of levity: "I am here if you need a shoulder," tweeted ERIN O'TOOLE, an American radio host who was frequently mistaken on Twitter for the former Canadian Tory leader of the same name whose political career took a nose dive when his party turned on him.

The object of her kindness? JASON KENNEY, an American non-profit comms guy whose namesake's career just took an eerily similar turn.

 

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For your radar

ROYAL FUSS — When PRINCE WILLIAM and KATE MIDDLETON visited Whitehorse in 2016, there was a small media frenzy over where they were going to stay for their one night away from the kids. When the news got out that it was the three-star High Country Inn, there was much mockery in the British tabloid press. Even Maclean’s ran an entire article on the modest hotel.

Suffice it to say that PRINCE CHARLES and CAMILLA 's three-day tour of Canada has not generated quite the same level of breathless excitement. Instead, it’s been marked by calls for an apology for the Crown’s role in the residential school system and questions about whether Canada should still, you know, be a monarchy.

— On the first count: Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU’s response was, let’s say, evasive. Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER offered more candor, saying he’s “of two minds” about an apology, but hasn’t heard a “groundswell” of support for those calling for one.

— On the future of the monarchy: Trudeau offered an emphatic ‘I have bigger fish to fry.’ His actual words: “Quite frankly, when I hear from Canadians about the things they’re preoccupied about … it’s not about constitutional change.” Not a ringing endorsement of the monarchy, then, but not a sign that Canada is about to pull a Barbados and declare itself a republic, either.

— Changing times: Certainly, the situation today is somewhat different from what it was in 2016 when Will and Kate were here. Recent survey results showed that more than half of respondents think Canada shouldn’t remain a constitutional monarchy. Only about a third thought Canada should stick with the monarchy when “King Charles” takes the reins (sorry, Charles).

Even Will and Kate haven’t been getting the same reception lately as they did in Canada six years ago. They were met by protesters demanding an apology and reparations for the slave trade during a tour of the Caribbean in March, and had to cancel a planned outing in Belize.

— The upshot: How to sum up Charles and Camilla’s tour, then? One monarchist has labeled it “very small and sad.” But if that’s the worst that can be said about it, maybe that’s not so bad.

NEXT UP: BYELECTION — Liberal MP SVEN SPENGEMANN quit his job in the Commons for another gig at the United Nations. Spengemann previously served on the U.N. mission in Iraq from 2005 to 2012.

That means the voters in Mississagua–Lakeshore will have their say on a new MP at some point in the next six months. Spengemann turned the riding red in 2015, but he's never blown out the rival Conservatives. The last Tory to win was STELLA AMBLER in 2011.

— Committee watch: Spengemann's departure also means the House foreign affairs committee will need a new chair. The other Liberals currently at that table are RACHEL BENDAYAN, ALI EHSASSI, HEDY FRY, RANDEEP SARAI and ROB OLIPHANT. Bendayan and Oliphant are both parliamentary secretaries who are out of the running.

AMBO WATCH — The ambassador’s office at the Canadian embassy in Paris has been vacant since ISABELLE HUDON left the post last July. But the big chair inside 130 Rue du Faubourg Saint-Honoré may not be empty much longer.

Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY told PATRICK MASBOURIAN , host of Radio-Canada’s Tout un matin, last month that a decision on the next ambassador to France would happen “rapidly” after the French election. EMMANUEL MACRON delivered his inauguration speech May 7 to kick off his second term.

The incoming ambassador to the plum gig will follow in the footsteps of not only Hudon, but LAWRENCE CANNON, MARC LORTIE, CLAUDE LAVERDURE, RAYMOND CHRÉTIEN and farther back, LUCIEN BOUCHARD.

What's the chatter at Fort Pearson? Who's next in line and why aren't they MARC GARNEAU? (Just kidding, we know why.) Drop us a line: ottawaplaybook@politico.com

— Who’s Beijing bound? The ambassador’s job in China is another key position Joly has yet to fill. DOMINIC BARTON left the embassy at the end of 2021.

See above. You know the drill: spill, spill, spill.

ASK US ANYTHING

WHAT ARE YOU HEARING that Playbook needs to know? Send it all our way.

AROUND THE HILL

BUDGET BEEF — The Aerospace Industries Association of Canada is aghast at Bill C-19's proposed tax on luxury vehicles meant to gently soak the rich. President and CEO MIKE MUELLER is making his lobby group's case at the House finance committee this afternoon.

— What's on the table: The new tax will hit automobiles and airplanes that cost more than C$100,000, and boats more than C$250,000. It'll cost consumers either 10 percent of the purchase price or 20 percent of the price over the threshold (whichever is less).

— The problem: "This proposed tax targets aerospace manufacturers and will kill revenue and jobs," says Mueller in a release ahead of his appearance. A submission to Freeland's office warns of significant damage to the industry. "Some manufacturers project as much as a 50 percent reduction in demand for business aircraft as a result of the tax’s announcement, with orders already slowing and creating uncertainty for businesses."

— The solution: The AIAC has 10 proposed amendments for the committee to consider, including an exemption from the tax for aircraft intended for export and a lower threshold of business usage for aircraft to qualify for a business exemption. Read every proposal here.

LAST HURRAH — Today marks the last hearing to be heard by retiring Supreme Court Justice MICHAEL MOLDAVER, who vacates the bench on Sept. 1. Watch him bid farewell to the court at 9:30 a.m.

CONSERVATIVE CORNER

THE DRAMA CONTINUES — No one should be surprised that ED FAST would have tough words for PIERRE POILIEVRE's pledge to fire Bank of Canada governor TIFF MACKLEM . Fast is the party's finance critic and co-chair of the JEAN CHAREST campaign.

But Fast's words still packed a punch as he walked into caucus on Wednesday. He said Tories "lose some credibility" when they attack independent institutions.

“I’m deeply troubled by suggestions by one of our leadership candidates, that that candidate would be prepared to interfere already at this stage in the independence of our central bank," he said. Fast also made the unforgivable-in-some-circles point that inflation isn't Canada's problem alone. “Central banks around the world have struggled with the same challenges that our central bank has struggled with,” he said.

— Too spicy, apparently: At day's end, interim Tory leader CANDICE BERGEN fired off a note to the Press Gallery. Fast will be "stepping away from his duties as Conservative Shadow Finance Minister," said Bergen, who added the longtime B.C. MP would "like to be able to offer more dedicated support" to the Charest campaign.

Fast told CBC News that Bergen didn't pressure him to give up his post. "I'm trying to do my job at the Finance table and yet [there's] incessant pressure to shut up. I just wasn't going to put up with that," he told the broadcaster.

The pressure appeared to come from MPs who support Poilievre. CHRIS WARKENTIN told CBC: "What many of us in caucus really objected to was Ed re-enforcing Liberal talking points about inflation to defend his preferred candidate."

RACIST SUPPORTERS — Tory MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, co-chair of fellow Poilievre rival PATRICK BROWN's campaign, tweeted a screenshot of a cartoonishly racist screed apparently directed at the Brown campaign's denunciation of the "great replacement" theory. Rempel said the campaign confirmed the sender was an active CPC member.

Their favored candidate? Mr. Poilievre. CTV's EVAN SOLOMON got a statement from his camp that rejected any supporters who express racist thoughts.

The party is investigating the email, CBC reports.

— Where is Poilievre? He's on Prince Edward Island today for a pair of rallies in Summerside and Charlottetown. The biggest room at Summerside's Loyalist Country Inn fits 340. The courtyard at Charlottetown's Rodd Royalty fits 400-plus. Will the leadership race's frontrunning freedom evangelist manage to whip up a frenzy on polite P.E.I.?

 

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TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— PM Trudeau will speak with Swedish PM MAGDALENA ANDERSSON. He'll also chair a meeting of the Cabinet's incident response group on the war in Ukraine.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Bonn, Germany for G7 finance minister and central bank governors' meetings. The day is capped with a working dinner hosted by German Federal Minister of Finance CHRISTIAN LINDNER and Deutsche Bundesbank president JOACHIM NAGEL.

Freeland will also hold bilats throughout the day.

Prince Charles and the Duchess of Cornwall visit the Yellowknives Dene First Nation community of Dettah. The event includes "a welcome from Indigenous leaders from across the Northwest Territories, an opening prayer, a drumming circle and a feeding the fire ceremony." Charles will participate in a discussion with local chiefs and elders. The duchess visits Kaw Tay Whee School to "learn about the school’s culturally responsive programming and its efforts to preserve their language."

It’s a busy day: The royal couple will celebrate the 75th anniversary of the Canadian Rangers, visit a transitional housing center, speak with climate experts at the Dettah Ice Road, stop by the Prince of Wales Northern Heritage Centre, and attend a Platinum Jubilee Celebration at the Ceremonial Circle.

They'll then fly home.

10 a.m. Trudeau chairs the Cabinet meeting.

11 a.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH delivers remarks at the LiUNA! Local 3000 Leadership Seminar. (LiUNA is one of several unions to endorse DOUG FORD's PCs in the provincial election.)

1:30 p.m. Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO will announce the tabling of legislation that would bring the Canada Border Services Agency under the purview of the Public Complaints and Review Commission. Mendicino will be joined by MICHELAINE LAHAIE, chairperson of the Civilian Review and Complaints Commission for the RCMP.

3 p.m. GG MARY SIMON will make remarks at the Governor General’s Innovation Awards ceremony.

4 p.m. Rural Economic Development Minister GUDIE HUTCHINGS will make a virtual funding announcement on high-speed internet and mobile connectivity in B.C. She'll be joined by LISA BEARE, the province's citizens' services minister.

MEDIA ROOM

— In the Hill Times, ERICA IFILL takes on Ottawa's white establishment: "How do y’all raise your kids to hate us so much?"

MAX FAWCETT takes on the "great replacement" theory for National Observer.

— Proof Strategies' COLE HOGAN, a digital campaigner on past Ford and Kenney campaigns, writes in iPolitics about the viral success of PIERRE POILIEVRE's uncharacteristically lengthy videos that are dense with policy.

— The first of eight episodes of Kuper Island has dropped. CBC reporter DUNCAN MCCUE investigates B.C.'s Kuper Island Residential School, known as Canada's Alcatraz.

“The residential schools were a war on Indigenous families and I can say that confidently as a journalist,” McCue told radio host MATT GALLOWAY this week. “But Canadians need to understand that. And as an Indigenous journalist, that's a tough story for me to tell. But it's necessary.”

— Canada hasn't awarded a Victoria Cross for valor since 1945. On the Blue Skies pod, ERIN O'TOOLE wonders why the heck not. He talks to DAVID O'KEEFE about the convoluted process behind the award, and ED LENGEL for the American perspective.

— On Windsor AM800's The Morning Drive, Mayor DREW DILKENS explained why he endorsed DOUG FORD's Progressive Conservatives: they're the likely winners. (It'll be awkward if STEVEN DEL DUCA's Liberals stage a late-campaign comeback.)

On the Resuming Debate pod, GARNETT GENUIS gathers industry experts for the bitcoin and blockchain episode.

PROZONE

For s, here’s our Pro Canada PM memo by MAURA FORREST: Liberals vs. inflation: What next?

In other headlines for Pro readers:

Canadian inflation hits three-decade high with 'worst yet to come.’
Crusade against online censorship collides with tech's push to scrub hate.
Countries delay decision on whether to give WHO more power in health emergencies.
Russia takes first steps to withdraw from WTO, WHO.
New York policymakers mull landmark shift in renewables ownership.

 

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PLAYBOOKERS

Birthdays: HBD to Conservative MP JAMES BEZAN. Also celebrating today: MARIO DUMONT, MARIA MOURANI and TARIK BRAHMI. 

HBD + 1 to JULIA DE LAURENTIIS JOHNSTON.

Spotted: Indy MP KEVIN VUONG, hearing cheers from the opposition benches for a tough question for the feds on inflation … The Logic's DAVID REEVELY, calling out the "civic vandalism" of coalition fear-mongering from Tories and New Democrats.

RANDY BOISSONNAULT and GEORGE CHAHAL, taking sides in the Battle of Alberta (the one on ice, not the one playing out within the premier's political party).

Movers and shakers: Summa Strategies' ALON FAITELIS is lobbying for MBDA Missile Systems, a manufacturer with an interest in arming the next generation of Canadian warships … Google Canada has another lobbyist: Summa's CLAIRE SMITH … Impact's KATHARINE CHRISTIE is repping the Canadian Federation of Library Associations, which has said proposed copyright reforms would "cause undue harm to intellectual and cultural growth in Canada."

Media mentions: DHRITI GUPTA is officially a Maclean's associate editorBRITTANY HOBSON gains permanent status at the Canadian Press in Winnipeg … CHANTAL BRAGANZA is the new deputy editor of food at Chatelaine: "I! Am! So! Excited!"

Farewells: Former National Chief Robert Bertrand died Tuesday. “My predecessor’s work will forever live to serve Off-Reserve First Nations, Metis and Southern Inuit,” Congress of Aboriginals Peoples National Chief Elmer St. Pierre said in a statement. Bertrand also served as a MP for the riding of Pontiac–Gatineau–Labelle.

“He left his mark on a community through his political advances, his kindness and his generosity,” said MP SOPHIE CHATEL.

On the Hill

Keep up to House committee schedules here.

Find Senate meeting schedules here. 

9 a.m. The Senate agriculture and forestry committee will hear from a handful of B.C. industry groups and also plans to discuss the status of soil health in Canada.

9 a.m. The Senate energy, environment and natural resources committee opens in camera. It’s scheduled to begin clause-by-clause on Bill S-5 at 9:15 a.m.

11 a.m. The House finance committee continues to study Bill C-19. Witnesses on deck: Council of Canadian Innovators, Native Women's Association of Canada, JDRF Canada and Samaritan's Purse Canada.

11 a.m. The House fisheries and oceans committee is behind closed doors to talk about its report on traceability of fish and seafood products.

11:30 a.m. The Senate foreign affairs and international trade committee is studying Bill C-19 and will hear from a long list of senior public officials.

11:30 a.m. The Senate internal economy, budgets and administration committee is in camera off the top before opening to discuss financial and administrative matters.

12 p.m. Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO will appear on main estimates during the first hour of this meeting of the House public safety and national security committee.

On the roster of senior officials booked until 2 p.m.: JOHN OSSOWSKI (Canadian Border Services Agency), MICHELLE TESSIER (Canadian Security Intelligence Service), ANNE KELLY (Correctional Service of Canada), ROB STEWART (Department of Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness), JENNIFER OADES (Parole Board of Canada) and BRIAN BRENNAN (Royal Canadian Mounted Police).

3 p.m. The Senate social affairs, science and tech committee will hear from immigration lawyers and officials from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada in its study of Bill C-19.

3:30 p.m. Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU will be at the House agriculture and agri-food committee on main estimates. Officials from the Canadian Food Inspection Agency and the Department of Agriculture and Agri-Food will also appear.

3:30 p.m. Lobbying Commissioner NANCY BÉLANGER will join the House ethics committee on main estimates.

3:30 p.m. MIKE MOFFATT of the Smart Prosperity Institute will be at the House HUMA committee with other experts speaking to the Housing Accelerator Fund. (Moffatt posted his opening remarks online.)

3:30 p.m. The House finance committee meets a second time Thursday on Bill C-19. On the afternoon agenda at FINA: Aerospace Industries Association of Canada, International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, Business Council of Alberta, C.D. Howe Institute, Canadian Labour Congress and Federation of Canadian Municipalities.

6:30 p.m. The House environment and sustainable development committee will be in camera to discuss a report on nuclear waste governance.

6:30 p.m. The House committee on science and research will host three one-hour panels to inform its study: “Top Talent, Research and Innovation.” Professors JOEL BLIT, JALENE LAMONTAGNE, JEAN-PIERRE PERREAULT and MICHELE MOSCA are scheduled to appear. Banting Research Foundation, Genome Canada, College and Institutes Canada and the University of Calgary are among the other groups and organizations scheduled on the roster of witnesses.

6:30 p.m. The Senate audit and oversight committee meets to consider a draft budget.

Canceled: The House procedures committee, the House public accounts committee and the House transport committee.

TRIVIA

Wednesday’s answer: The National Gallery of Canada held its first exhibition in the former Clarendon Hotel, at the corner of Sussex Drive and York Street. 

Props to ANNE-MARIE STACEY, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, MICHAEL SUNG and BEN ROTH. 

Thursday’s question: When was Queen Victoria’s birthday first declared a holiday in Canada?

Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Correction: Wednesday’s edition of Playbook misidentified Brian Tobin’s position at BMO Financial Group. He is vice-chair. 

Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness amongst this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com.

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