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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Maura Forrest | Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I’m your host, Maura Forrest. Today, what’s going on with the public service? Also, we translate PIERRE POILIEVRE’s new video. And we get into the weeds of the clean fuel standard. Did someone forward you this edition? Click here to sign up for your own subscription to our free newsletter. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
BACK TO EARTH — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is back in Canada after two weeks abroad and with three summits under his belt. He may be disappointed to find that many Canadians are less interested in what he was doing overseas than with their own inability to travel overseas for want of a passport.
That frustration is making waves in Quebec, where police at one point had to be called in to manage the crowd outside a Montreal passport office. — It’s not just passports, of course. On Sunday, La Presse’s MÉLANIE MARQUIS had a rundown of all the areas of dysfunction in the federal bureaucracy: passports, airports, visas, refugee resettlement, employment insurance, and so on. — The source of the problems? Some combination of power centralized in the Prime Minister’s Office, federal public servants still working from home, and a lack of interest in modernization, according to La Presse. — Notable excerpt: Former privy council clerk PAUL TELLIER sounded off on the Liberals to La Presse, saying the government “never learned to work with the public service in an efficient and productive manner,” and that federal ministers are kept on a short leash. — In the National Post: Former senator ANDRÉ PRATTE has a dire warning for Trudeau from Quebec, arguing the “breakdown” of government services “weakens the trust that Canadians have in their national government.” “It’s fine to issue statements and tweets about Ukraine and abortion in the United States, but when your government cannot deliver passports or unemployment cheques, it is your responsibility and your duty to come back from your worldly travels and get to work,” he wrote. In Quebec, he said, the prevailing sense of indifference toward the federal government “could easily turn to anger if the Trudeau government does not tackle the current bureaucratic disarray head-on.” — But hey: At least there’s a task force! — Related: Here’s CTV News’ MICHAEL LEE with a fresh rundown of the horrors of Canadian air travel. | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | |
10:30 a.m. The Bank of Canada will release the summer issue of the Business Outlook Survey and the latest Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations.
The Ukraine Recovery Conference will be held in Lugano, Switzerland. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivers opening address via videoconference at 1:30 p.m. local time. Watch here. | | CONSERVATIVE CORNER | |
TRANSLATION — Conservative leadership candidate PIERRE POILIEVRE on Sunday released a campaign video in which he used an old, scarred wooden beam to make a point about reclaiming timeless values (i.e. freedom). Here, we present to you a translated version.
Poilievre: “This post and these boards were probably on a barn for centuries.” Translation: Back when barns and the people in them were free. Poilievre: “I had to clean them by hand, you know, scrape off all the shit and mud and debris in order to bring out this beautiful honeycomb exterior that you see now.” Translation: Did you think I couldn’t work with my hands? I can work with my hands. Also I can swear, just like regular people. I’m just a regular guy in a Lacoste checkered shirt. Poilievre: “And what I’m doing and what all of us do when we bring these boards into our house is we are reclaiming something that was already there.” Translation: Please ensure your seatbelts are fastened as I pivot hard. Poilievre: “[My campaign] is not about inventing some brand new utopia out of scratch. It’s about reclaiming the freedom that is our natural right.” Translation: Go ahead. Call it a dog-whistle. See if I care. Poilievre: “Our tradition of freedom goes back about 800 years to the Magna Carta in the fields of Runnymede when the commoners forced King John to sign the Great Charter.” Translation: I am the kind of guy who can talk about the Magna Carta and mortises and tenons in the same breath. Tell me you don’t want me as your leader. Poilievre: “[The loggers] discovered something. They unlocked something that was already inside that log. It was naturally there.” Translation: And that thing was a beam. But also it was freedom. Stay with me! Poilievre: “[The Liberals] don’t want to restore the timeless ideas. They want to sweep away our history so that they can invent a new utopia from scratch.” Translation: A utopia built from vinyl siding. Poilievre: “I’m here to allow you to reclaim what has always been yours. … Reclaim your life. Reclaim your freedom.” Translation: I see you and your anger. I’m looking right at you. I know what you need to hear, and I’m getting damn good at this. — Here are a few reactions: “He’s putting on a clinic on winning. It’s terrifying, but I’m taking notes.” — NDP operative GEORGE SOULE “Prediction: if Poilievre did a video about the importance of sorting your laundry into darks and lights, blue check Twitter would slam him for ‘shameless racist dogwhistling.’ — Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s AARON WUDRICK “Poilievre’s messages are getting better and better. He is a gifted communicator, has a vision of the country.” — Journalist STEPHEN MAHER — Meanwhile: The Conservative leadership race hits another deadline today. The party released a preliminary list of 675,000 members last week, and the campaigns have until today to challenge any names they think shouldn’t be on it. | | SUMMERTIME READS | |
Stay tuned for more VIP summertime bookshelf selections. And send your reading suggestions to us! We'll share your picks with thousands of your closest friends — i.e. in our Playbook newsletter.
| | PAPER TRAIL | |
CLIMATE COSTS — Here’s a thing we noticed. The federal government published final regulations for its long-delayed clean fuel standard last week, and the numbers look… well, a bit different from what was published in draft regulations in December 2020.
The regulations, which are a key pillar of the Liberals’ climate plan, will require emissions from gasoline and diesel to decline gradually, and will take effect in July 2023. Fuel suppliers have several options to meet the emissions intensity cap, including by adding ethanol or biodiesel. — Into the weeds: Ottawa expects the clean fuel standard to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 18 million metric tons in 2030. That’s similar to the 17.5 million metric tons expected in the draft regulations. But the expected costs look a little different — higher, to be precise. Playbook did the nerdy compare-and-contrast work so you don’t have to, and here’s what we found. All these costs are projected for 2030: — Gasoline price: Will rise by 6 to 13 cents per liter, compared to 4 to 11 cents in the draft regs — Diesel price: Will rise by 7 to 16 cents per liter, up from 4 to 13 cents — Hit to GDP: Up to C$9 billion, compared to C$6.4 billion — Cost to average household: C$220, compared to C$136 — Cost per gas-powered vehicle: C$127, compared to C$100 — Cost per metric ton of emissions cuts: C$151, compared to C$94 The clean fuel standard has been delayed more times than we can remember since the Liberals first pitched it in 2016. But as the Canadian Press reported last week, the final regulations are tougher than the draft regs, requiring a 15-percent cut to emissions intensity in 2030, up from about 13 percent. | | For your radar | |
RISK REPORT — How worried should Canada be about political instability in the United States? Homeland security consultant PAUL ROSENZWEIG tackled that question recently for the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. In an imagined threat assessment that CSIS might have written, Rosenzweig speculates about how Canada stands to be affected by an increasingly unpredictable southern neighbor. Here are some of the highlights:
- Political polarization in the U.S. will have “spill-over” impacts in Canada (see: Freedom Convoy).
- America’s trade policy will become “more isolationist,” and Canada should diversify its export and import base “as rapidly as is practicable.”
- Cross-border travel between Canada and the U.S. will get harder, partly due to tightening of the U.S.-Mexico border.
- The U.S. will disengage from global institutions, and Canada should reinforce alliances with other Western nations and increase defense spending.
- Canadian border security needs an upgrade, due to the potential for “a significant degree of social, political and economic disruption in the United States over the coming decade.”
— Does all of that sound pretty grim? Well, there was a spot of optimism near the end. “We assess with a high degree of confidence,” Rosenzweig wrote in the voice of Canadian intelligence officials, “that a military confrontation between the United States and Canada is unlikely.” Phew.
| | For the record | |
ONE OF THE PEOPLE? — Speaking of security risks, Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND had a lot to say last week about her habit of bicycling to political events (Borgen, anyone?).
When Freeland met U.S. Treasury Secretary JANET YELLEN in Toronto last month, she cycled to the Royal Ontario Museum to meet her, and then joined Yellen’s security convoy for the rest of the day. Here’s how Freeland recalled their conversation: “The Secretary said to me, ‘You rode your bike here, I hear. How does your security detail feel about riding bikes to be with you?’ And I said, ‘They don’t because I don’t have a security detail. I just rode here by myself and locked up my bike and walked into the ROM.’ “That is a great thing about our country. I think it is great that people in my riding see me at the grocery store, that they can stop me while I’m running in the ravines — they very often have specific issues they wish to raise. So that’s something that keeps me in touch with how people are thinking. “A real strength of Canada is that I feel safe being out there on my own. I hope that that can continue. I think actually it’s something that we as Canadians get to choose. “We get to choose: Do we want to be a country where our elected political leaders can just be regular people and hang out in their neighborhoods? Or do we want to be a country where they’re separated from the rest of us? I know what I prefer.”
| | MEDIA ROOM | |
— The Globe’s NANCY MACDONALD pieces together what is known about the brothers killed in a shootout with police after a botched robbery last week in Saanich, B.C.
— The world needs more than crumbs from the G7’s table, MARK MALLOCH-BROWN writes in the NYT opinion piece this morning. — “Worry has long driven Canadian interpretation of American culture,” COLIN HORGAN writes at Modern Hell. “What’s driving people here now is something more profound, and more distinctly American. Paranoia.” — The Hill Times’ CHELSEA NASH talked to Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER about immigration backlogs, the war in Ukraine, and the digitalization of Immigration and Citizenship Canada. — ICYMI, the latest episode of the Policy Options pod features JENNIFER DITCHBURN, ANITA LI, SEAN SPEER, ERIC MERKLEY and DARRELL BRICKER in conversation about polarization and public policy. — Over at Chatelaine, STACY LEE KONG asks: Should Canada finally abolish the monarchy? — BOB RAE, Canada’s ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations, spoke to DAVID COMMON on The Sunday Magazine about the U.N., Ukraine and finding hope against despair.
| | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter: Why gas prices in Canada will only go up.
In other headlines for Pros:
— Bracing for a new global health fight.
— Interior offshore oil drilling plan skirts tough choices.
— World Bank establishes the pandemic preparedness fund.
— How Biden can still meet his climate goals.
— 'We don’t have to pretend anymore': Greens ready to bail on D.C.
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| | PLAYBOOKERS | |
Birthdays: HBD to political strategist BRIAN TOPP, retired Senator MARJORY LEBRETON, MNA CHANTAL ROULEAU and former MP CHRIS CHARLTON.
Spotted: CHRIS HALL, honored in LEGO after his final show as host of CBC’s The House. NDP MP RICHARD CANNINGS, doing “one of the toughest jobs of an MP.” Movers and shakers: Banff Forum has announced the arrival of NADIA THEODORE and JENNIFER DITCHBURN to their board. … AYESHA CHUGHTAI said farewell to the PMO last week. And ALEX KOHUT bid the PMO adieu on Sunday, after 2,250 days. Media mentions: ADRIENNE ARSENAULT has been named chief correspondent for CBC News and sole anchor of The National. … ANDREW CHANG is departing the flagship program to host a new daily digital newscast. The AP’s KATHY GANNON writes about leaving Afghanistan after 35 years of reporting on the country. CBC’s IOANNA ROUMELIOTIS tells her story of being a living organ donor. NUNATSIAQ NEWS picked up 14 nominations in the Quebec Community Newspapers Association’s awards. In memoriam: The Canadian Jewish News reports that historian and academic IRVING ABELLA has died. “He was a scholar, a sage, a friend and a wonderful spouse, dad, and grandfather,” BOB RAE said on Twitter last night. Abella was 82. Here is an appreciation his life and legacy, written on the occasion of his 80th birthday. | | TRIVIA | |
Thursday's answer: Yathkyed Lake, Nunavut, was the answer we were thinking of: 62.3 degrees north, 97 degrees west. This is the center of Canada, as measured by the Canadian Cartographic Association.
Here’s Maclean’s from 2015 with a story that explains why other spots brag about their centrality. Props to ANNE-MARIE STACEY, LUCAS BORCHENKO, DOUG RICE, JAMES RENFREW, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, STEPHEN KAROL, KEVIN BOSCH, JOANNA PLATER, GARY ALLEN, CHRISTOPHER LALANDE and BOB GORDON. Monday’s question: How many U.S. states border Canada — and with how many provinces? Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without Luiza Ch. Savage and editor Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
