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Presented by General Atomics Aeronautical: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Zi-Ann Lum, Maura Forrest and Nick Taylor-Vaisey | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Zi-Ann | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Parliament is back and so is the burger circuit. We drop by the British high commissioner’s residence for an evening soirée for BOB RAE. Economists sort inflation hyperbole and reality. Plus, a fresh pulse check on election speculation because it’s a minority government September. |  | DRIVING THE DAY | |
DEMOCRACY: IT’S COMPLICATED — String lights glowed inside the tall canopy tent set up on the lawn of Earnscliffe Tuesday evening where representatives of the judiciary, legislature and the executive mingled to toast BOB RAE, Canada’s ambassador to the United Nations.
Rae won the Parliamentary Centre’s inaugural “Because Democracy Matters” award, an occasion that brought honorary patron DAVID JOHNSTON back to Sussex Drive from London. He was attending Queen ELIZABETH II’s state funeral a day earlier. The United Nations General Assembly kept Rae grounded in New York City. Instead, he beamed in by video link, and shared his meditations on democracy and how he understands it. | 
Bob Rae. | John Minchillo/AP Photo |
— Words from the winner: “Democracy is really about building support for the dignity of the individual as well as the solidarity that's required, and the institutional strength that's required, to allow all of us to recognize the quality of our own democracy.”
We have to get over the idea that democracy is what happens in an election or vote, he said. — It’s a complicated concept, sure. After Rae’s taped remarks, Playbook found ELIZABETH MAY in the crowd and asked her to tease apart how the Green parliamentary leader interprets democracy. “Well, I’ll tell you what democracy isn’t,” May said. “Democracy isn't sloganeering in the absence of content — and democracy isn't an absence of responsibility.” It’s hard work and it’s messy and involves citizens being engaged, informed and empowered, she said. “It certainly isn't electioneering, based on wedge issues and dog whistles.” Sen. DONNA DASKO said look to institutions to judge the health of a democracy. Those institutions include free elections, the rule of law in the court and justice in the court system, plus a media that’s “completely free to criticize and examine the political elites and those who run the system,” she said. — Dasko’s quick quality check of Canadian democracy: “Very strong.” Parliamentary Centre board member MARCI SURKES was succinct: The common denominator in all democratic societies is equal opportunity for all persons. “Each and every one of us is equal and has the same opportunity to share in prosperity and in success in whatever it is we choose to do with our lives,” Surkes said. — Between the stage and the European wines and sliders: Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER, Families Minister KARINA GOULD, Supreme Court Justice RUSSELL BROWN, MPs ANITA VANDENBELD, HEATHER MCPHERSON, journalists PAUL WELLS, TONDA MACCHARLES, DYLAN ROBERTSON, and former host of The House CHRIS HALL. ANNE MCLELLAN was under the event tent, as was YAROSLAV BARAN and ex-PCO clerk MICHAEL WERNICK, a silent auction item winner who left before his name was declared. Do you enjoy Ottawa Playbook? Maybe you know others who may like it, too. Hit forward. Click here to sign up to this free newsletter. | | For your radar | |
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? — Over the summer, there was plenty of speculation about whether Trudeau would call a snap election this fall. Now, with record inflation top of mind and a new Conservative leader who plans to keep it that way, the odds of an election in the near term seem pretty remote.
Still, many insiders and observers don’t think this minority government will go the distance to 2025 — even with support from the NDP. — Place your bets: An NDP source tells POLITICO the party is determined to see the Liberals make good on the next phase of public dental care — a federally administered dental care plan for children younger than 18, seniors, and people with disabilities. The deadline for that, according to the two parties’ confidence-and-supply agreement, is the end of 2023. The program is supposed to be rolled out to all families making less than C$90,000 by 2025. But after that 2023 milestone, the source said, there’s a good chance the Liberals will pull the plug and call an election, perhaps in the winter of 2024. At that point, both parties could claim a win. — Meanwhile, this, from a Liberal source: “We don’t believe Canadians want an election, and certainly we’re not looking to trigger one.” Read more here from POLITICO. What’s your take? Weigh in on election timing here. OLO WATCH — Hiring is a slog at the Office of the Leader of the Opposition, but Poilievre's slowly expanding nerve center added a new hire: STEPHANIE DUNLOP, director of tour (i.e. travel) and operations. Dunlop played a similar role on Poilievre's leadership campaign. Before that, she was a senior account director at Hill + Knowlton — and a dedicated H+K Centres of the Universe player in Playbook's virtual trivia. | | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada: Leveraging the well-proven MQ-9 platform that has supported Five Eyes and NATO missions for more than a decade, Team SkyGuardian brings together the best in business and technology to serve Canada, the Canadian Armed Forces, and the many industries that support them. Our government and industry team will help ensure Canada’s safety and security for the long term. | | |
| | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | | 
Price check. | Brandon Bell/Getty Images | MUCH ADO ABOUT INFLATION — The bones of the Liberals’ $4.6-billion affordability plan have been laid out in Bill C-30 and C-31. But before the arrival of the legislation in the House, economists were buzzing about sticker shock and pondering aloud about how billions in new spending could further inflame inflation. We asked economists: What's the truth in the argument the proposed C$4.6B affordability plan will add pressures on inflation? Will it actually add fuel to the fire? MOSTAFA ASKARI, chief economist at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy: No. “The proposed affordability package is only 0.16 percent of Canada’s GDP. The measures are targeted and temporary. They are not large enough to increase inflation and will not lead to higher interest rates. The government does not have the tools to fight global inflation, but the proposed measures will help low-income families somewhat.” ARMINE YALNIZYAN, economist and Atkinson fellow on the future of workers: No. “In truth the measures are so modest (only C$3.2 billion in additional spending this fiscal year, targeted specifically to cash-strapped households) that they amount to just over 0.1 per cent of nominal GDP and less than one per cent of current growth, hardly a tail that could wag a dog.” Because the money will likely reach households in late 2022/early 2023, timing is a key issue, Yalnizyan said, adding that it's “too late to affect the Bank of Canada’s interest rate war on inflation.” Yalnizyan wrote in an email: “Along with the childcare fee rebate, financed by the feds and promised by the Ontario government to start in April (money that has yet to arrive in mailboxes), there’s a lot of talk but not a lot of cash flowing to households. There’s no chance current federal measures will spur inflationary over-spending anytime soon.” DAVID MACDONALD, senior economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives: No. “These transfers are unlikely to have much impact on inflation as inflation is being driven by external factors like the price of gasoline, supply chain issues and the like. These measures are quite targeted and to get the full value of all three, you'd have to be a family making under C$35,000. “In the best case scenario, you could receive about C$2,300 for that family which only amounts to 6.5 percent of income when inflation is running at 7.0 percent. So you're still worse off, just like workers generally, after this help. “These measures aren't boosting incomes well above inflation, they are just helping lower income families afford the price increases that have already happened.” MARC DESORMEAUX, principal economist at Desjardins: Depends on spending trends. “We expect new federal measures alone to have only a modest impact on real GDP growth and inflation. Of the C$4.6 billion headline number, we estimate that only about C$3.3 billion — just 0.1 percent of 2022 nominal GDP — is net new money. “But many provinces are being even more generous with their inflation relief when the Canadian economy is already operating above its potential. Combined, federal and provincial measures pose an inflationary risk if households proceed to spend the money. “However, in that case, the Bank of Canada would likely further tighten monetary policy. That would offset the additional inflationary effect from fiscal policy but also increase the risk of a more severe downturn than we expect.”
| | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada:   | | | | | PAPER TRAIL | |
SWIFT SWITCH — A report from the procedure and House affairs committee has officially struck off ex-CPC MP ALAIN RAYES’ name from the membership list for the official languages committee — and the associate members’ list of 26 committees.
Conservatives have tapped BERNARD GÉNÉREUX to replace Rayes on the official languages committee. | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | | 
At the U.N. in New York. | Craig Ruttle/AP Photo | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in New York City and will hold a bilat with U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES at 12:25 p.m. The PM will also meet with European Commission President URSULA VON DER LEYEN at 2:45 p.m. A media availability is scheduled for 6 p.m. before Trudeau heads to an evening reception hosted by U.S. President JOE BIDEN and Dr. JILL BIDEN at 7 p.m. 8 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is in New York City and will participate in a sideline UNGA event related to the high ambition coalition to end plastic pollution. AQUAMAN himself, JASON MOMOA, is promoted as a special guest. 8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada releases its fifth batch of results from the 2021 Census. Today’s release will provide updated stats on First Nations, Métis and Inuit and the state of Canada’s housing. A 9:30 a.m. media availability follows. 9 a.m. The Globe and Mail is hosting an all-day “People and Policy” event featuring speakers including Chief Public Health Officer THERESA TAM , Chief Water Commissioner for the Anishinabek Nation AUTUMN PELTIER, Black Health Alliance’s PAUL BAILEY, and Dr. DANIELLE MARTIN. Also speaking: Globe reporters IAN BAILEY, CARLY WEEKS, ROB CARRICK, VANMALA SUBRAMANIAM, DAVE MCGINN, ANDRÉ PICARD, RYAN MACDONALD and BOB FIFE. 9 a.m. Green MPs ELIZABETH MAY, MIKE MORRICE and Interim Leader AMITA KUTTNER will be in West Block speaking to media about their fall priorities. 10:45 a.m. STEVEN GUILBEAULT, still in NYC, will be a panelist on a C2ES webinar titled “ The Paris Agreement and the Ambition We Need.” 4 p.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN drops by the Senate social affairs, science and technology committee to explain how gender-based analysis works in policymaking. 4:15 p.m. Justice Minister and Attorney General DAVID LAMETTI is in the hot seat at the Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee to field senators’ questions about Bill C-5, the government’s bill to remove mandatory minimums. 4:30 p.m. Canada's export of Russian Gazprom turbines to Germany is the topic du jour at the House foreign affairs committee. MPs last met two weeks ago on the topic. “Committee business” is on today’s agenda — and is not in camera. 6:45 p.m. ANDREW CASH is back. The ex-NDP MP is a witness at the Senate transport committee to answer questions about Bill C-11. Other witnesses include lobbyists representing YouTube and TikTok. | | | | A message from Team SkyGuardian Canada: Learn about the remotely piloted multi-mission aircraft building Canadian industrial partnerships that deliver sovereignty and security for Canada. | | | | | PROZONE | |
For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter: Too early for ‘Mission Accomplished.’
In news for POLITICO Pro s:
— What’s in the way of solar and wind adoption in Canada.
— U.N. warns of food shortages if fertilizer crisis persists.
— U.S. senators push bipartisan framework to expand Russian oil sanctions.
— Denmark pledges €13M for climate damage funding.
— EU countries want more sustainability in new trade deals — but not in all of them.
— Who's in Jennifer Granholm's agenda-setting 'AM Huddle'.
— Facebook’s privacy breaches can be ‘indication’ of competition abuse, EU judge says. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— KATHRYN MAY reports in Policy Options on a Sept. 13 memo from PCO Clerk JANICE CHARETTE about hybrid work and how it’s the way of the future for Canada’s public service.
— In the POLITICO Nightly newsletter, JOANNE KENEN writes: Polio is the next front in the disinformation wars. — “While Canada appears to be avoiding the Great Resignation, there is another potentially more serious source of concern,” TREVOR TOMBE warns over at The Hub. “Surging retirements.” — The Decibel pod raises a good question: What happened to $10-a-day daycare in Ontario? — The Star’s This Matters pod hears from MADISON DYCK, one of seven young climate activists who brought the Ontario government to court last week. — Top of POLITICO this morning: McCarthy reaches for the GOP’s brass ring: A unifying agenda. — ASHLEY OKWUOSA writes on a former GM plant in St. Catharines that is leaking toxic chemicals. — Finally, on the This Matters pod: How the Great Resignation became the Great Retirement in Canada. | | Playbookers | |
Birthdays: A merry HBD to Senators MARIE-FRANÇOISE MÉGIE and RAYMONDE SAINT-GERMAIN and non-senators JOE VOLPE, JOE SPINA and ED PICCO.
Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Spotted: Back to school pics, but make it parliamentarians on the Hill: RACHEL BENDAYAN, MARIE-HÉLÈNE GAUDREAU, GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR, JASRAJ SINGH HALLAN, DARREN FISHER, DAVID LAMETTI, SEAN FRASER, PASCALE ST-ONGE, JEAN-YVES DUCLOS, JENNA SUDDS and MARTIN SHIELDS. An NDP attack ad against PIERRE POILIEVRE. In NYC: CATHERINE MCKENNA in Central Park with Billionaires’ Row in the background … Enviro Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT fist bumping with U.S. Special Climate Envoy JOHN KERRY … and meeting with European green deal VP FRANS TIMMERMANS … Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY meeting with her Dutch counterpart WOPKE HOEKSTRA. KING CHARLES III’s name on an official government document (h/t Global’s DAVID AKIN) … France’s new ambassador to Canada MICHEL MIRAILLET, enroute to Ottawa … International Trade Minister MARY NG in Manila with JOLLIBEE, the Jollibee mascot. Inside the PM’s plane : JUSTIN TRUDEAU and New Zealand PM JACINDA ARDERN chatting with SANDRA OH (h/t Global’s ABIGAIL BIMMAN). Question period: Still a dumpster fire … MPs giving CPAC board members a standing O after House Speaker ANTHONY ROTA gave a shout out about the broadcaster’s golden jubilee (50th anniversary) … Liberal MP KODY BLOIS bringing Annapolis Valley blackberries to a meeting with ERIC at Costco in Ottawa … New Zealand agricultural trade envoys MELANIE POULTON and MARTIN HARVEY in Ottawa meeting with Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU. Movers and shakers: Former TV reporter-turned-Compass Rose consultant SHIRLEE ENGEL has launched a design/decor business but still plans to take on occasional comms & GR projects. Engel's firm, Compass Rose, announced two new public affairs counselors this morning — MELISSA CABLE and SAMANTHA THOMPSON. ROSS LEMIEUX is also newly aboard as financial controller. Media mentions: Journalist OLIVIA BOWDEN is now a national news writer and producer with CTV News. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. | | TRIVIA | |
Tuesday’s answer: “I am a Canadian. Canada has been the inspiration of my life,” WILFRID LAURIER said during the 1911 election campaign.
Props to STACEY NORONHA, RALPH LEVENSTEIN, BOB GORDON, ROBERT MCDOUGALL and KEVIN BOSCH. Wednesday’s question: Now tell us who said: “I have never heard a Canadian refer to an American as a foreigner. He is just an American. And in that same way, in the United States, Canadians are not foreigners, they are Canadians.” Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness in this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Alejandra Waase to find out how: awaase@politico.com. Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
