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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey and Maura Forrest | Send tips | Subscribe here | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey with Maura Forrest and Zi-Ann Lum. Today, we tiptoe into Cabinet shuffle speculation and mostly throw cold water on any notion of epic drama to come. Plus, JUSTIN TRUDEAU and DOUG FORD celebrate each other and diss each other's provincial cousins.
|  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THAT TIME ALREADY? — The first pundit out of the gate with year-end Cabinet shuffle speculation was NIK NANOS, whose insight skillfully scored a Hill Times headline atop an ABBAS RANA byline. Nanos has his eye on January, when most MPs are far from Ottawa and recharging for the inevitably fractious parliamentary marathon to the summer. Rana notes that Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has shuffled the decks four times in that month. It's true that those quiet winter days offer an opportunity for the PM and his team to play around with whiteboard magnets — here's the photo evidence , courtesy of ADAM SCOTTI — and emerge with a retooled Cabinet just in time for an end-of-month caucus retreat. — New faces: There's almost no speculation in which Playbook won't indulge. A canvassing of area Liberals produced a few MPs who might merit a big promotion: ADAM VAN KOEVERDEN, TERRY DUGUID, TERRY BEECH, JULIE DABRUSIN. Maybe even GARY ANANDASANGAREE, though BILL BLAIR's seat at the big table rules out anyone else from your Playbook host's beloved hometown of Scarborough. — What are the odds? Insiders are quick to remind the uninitiated that shuffles often come together in a matter of days, not weeks. The Prime Minister's Office will only think about a post-Christmas game of musical chairs after Christmas. And anyone on the inside of deliberations isn't talking. Not until a strategic leak, anyway. And every potential shuffle comes with a truckload of variables that could fill Rideau Hall's ballroom. These are the key questions for the PMO: → Are any ministers drowning in bad headlines or otherwise struggling in their jobs? → Are any ministers looking for an escape hatch for personal reasons? → Are any ministers likely to rule out a run for re-election? → Is an election conceivably imminent? — Known knowns: Conservatives would submit a long list of underperforming, out-of-touch ministers unworthy of the King's Privy Council. But they don't get a say, and Liberals in Playbook's Rolodex don't currently have the knives out for anyone in Cabinet. — Known unknowns: Ministers often keep deeply personal issues — health challenges, for instance — far away from the loose-lipped Ottawa bubble. Those troubling concerns can sneak up even on the ministers themselves. — Unknown unknowns: The prime minister could get on the horn with his ministers over the holidays to gauge their appetite for a re-election run. If they have their eyes on an exit, that's all the ammo a PM needs to replace them with an energetic up-and-comer. But even that might not be enough to trigger a shuffle next month. Liberals are governing like they have a majority. They mostly control the timing of the next election. They still talk about the value of stability, as opposed to literally any alternative. — The verdict: Will a shuffle go down in January? Our bet is a hard maybe.
| | For your radar | | ALLIES, MOSTLY — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Ontario Premier DOUG FORD were (almost) all smiles during the Monday reopening of GM’s Ingersoll plant, which has been retooled to assemble electric delivery vans. The two leaders, whose governments each promised C$259 million in funding for the project earlier this year, hailed the CAMI plant as Canada’s “first full-scale electric vehicle production facility.” Trudeau's press release buried the lede. Ford's got to the point . When it comes to making Canada a global powerhouse in electric vehicle production, Trudeau and Ford’s interests are closely aligned. But as reporters began asking questions after the announcement, the two best buds couldn’t entirely resist taking pot-shots at each other’s political families. To wit: From Trudeau, on the Liberals’ gun-control bill: “Some Conservative politicians at the federal level want to restore military-style assault weapons. We’re not going to let them do that. We’re going to continue to keep communities safe in a smart way that respects law-abiding gun owners.” Ford maintained a studiously neutral expression. And from Ford, on the provincial Liberals’ track record: “The previous government chased 300,000 jobs out of this province because of high taxes, red tape, regulations, high electricity costs. We took a different approach.” Trudeau gazed fixedly into the middle distance. — A little awkward, sure. But what’s a minor difference of opinion among friends? Did someone forward you this free newsletter? Sign up for your own copy to keep up with the latest insights and analysis from inside Ottawa politics.
| | PAPER TRAIL | | DENTALCARE DABBLING — Remember this sentence from the 2019 throne speech ? "Ideas like universal dental care are worth exploring, and I encourage Parliament to look into this," then-GG JULIE PAYETTE read aloud on Dec. 5 of that year. The Trudeau government was dipping its toes into dentalcare, and the prime minister's mandate letter for then-health minister PATTY HAJDU asked her to "work with Parliament to study and analyze" the issue. — Doing his research: Hajdu's deputy minister, STEPHEN LUCAS, emailed a few subordinates about three weeks earlier with a question. "Can you please send me the platform analysis done on dental care svp?" That email is part of a package of documents obtained by Playbook via an access-to-information request. So is the analysis requested by Lucas. — Full-circle moment: The Liberals are now implementing the first phase of a years-long effort to establish a national dentalcare program — a signature element of the party's confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP. New Democrats hoover up all the credit they can get for forcing the government's hand. As it turns out, the analysis requested by Lucas focused on the NDP's 2019 dentalcare promise. "The proposal addresses a significant issue relating to access to dental services," read the analysis. It noted millions of uninsured Canadians avoided trips to the dentist in recent years, and Indigenous communities suffer acutely from lack of access to care. A big block of the note's next page is redacted. The censors cited federal-provincial affairs and advice to Cabinet. Sad. — A meeting of minds: The package of documents also includes a recommendation that Hajdu meet the Canadian Dental Association in advance of Budget 2020. Lobbyist registry records note the CDA managed to meet with Hajdu's chief of staff on Feb. 7, 2020. On the same day, the first flight evacuating Canadians from Wuhan landed at CFB Trenton. Budget 2020 was never tabled. Dentalcare soon took a back seat.
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | 9 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT attends the opening press conference of the UN Biodiversity Conference in Montreal. 9:45 a.m. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will participate in a roundtable discussion with the Federation of Canadian Municipalities’ Big City Mayors’ Caucus, and deliver opening remarks. 10 a.m. Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will release two audits of the government’s performance related to Covid-19 vaccines and the handling of pandemic benefit programs, including the Canada Emergency Response Benefit and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy. 11:30 a.m. The Rideau Club in Ottawa plays host to a panel discussion titled “Ukraine’s Resistance at a Critical Point,” featuring Ukrainian MPs IVANNA KLYMPUSH-TSINTSADZE and MARIIA IONOVA. 12 p.m. A lineup of Tory MPs will respond to the AG report: JOHN WILLIAMSON, PIERRE PAUL-HUS, STEPHEN ELLIS and JASRAJ HALLAN. Plus "other members" of the party's shadow Cabinet. 1 p.m. A phalanx of Liberal Cabmins will respond to Hogan's report: DIANE LEBOUTHILLIER, CARLA QUALTROUGH, JEAN-YVES DUCLOS, HELENA JACZEK and HARJIT SAJJAN. 3:15 p.m. Trudeau will deliver remarks at the opening ceremony of the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity "about the importance of protecting nature and biodiversity." 4:30 p.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH meets with the Federation of Canadian Municipalities board. 5 p.m. Singh makes remarks at the FCM meeting. 5:05 p.m. Trudeau will attend a vigil in memory of the victims of the 1989 tragedy at the École Polytechnique de Montréal.
| | ASK US ANYTHING | | TELL US WHAT YOU KNOW — We welcome tips and scoops. What are you hearing that you need Playbook to know? What are you watching this week? Send details .
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — "Indigenous-led conservation efforts could make Canada a global leader in biodiversity," ETHEL BLONDIN-ANDREW and VALÉRIE COURTOIS write in the Globe and Mail . — Maj.-Gen. DANY FORTIN was acquitted on a 1988 sexual assault charge . — DAVID MOSCROP's On Work pod welcomes Sen. PAULA SIMONS . "I spend a lot of my time writing," the former journalist said. — BENJAMIN DICHTER, a "Freedom Convoy" spokesperson at the height of the protest, sat down for an extended interview with the Canadian Jewish News.
| | PROZONE | | For POLITICO Pro s, our latest policy newsletter by ZI-ANN LUM and MAURA FORREST: Trudeau touts a Canadian first In news for POLITICO Pro s: — EU leaders to discuss transatlantic trade spat next week
— Biden supports keeping vaccine mandate for troops, setting up fight with Congress
— Republicans' attacks on ESG aren't popular with voters, survey finds
— How offshore wind won over (most of) the Hamptons
— 'Buy America' timeline threatens to delay EV charger network
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: HBD to former foreign minister LAWRENCE CANNON, 75 today … Québec Solidaire MNA RUBA GHAZAL also celebrates. Movers and shakers: Cabmin staffer AREVIG AFARIAN leaves the Hill for a gig as communications adviser at Bombardier … MANUELA TOMIC is now Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY's special assistant for parliamentary affairs … SARA MACINTYTRE, a former press sec to STEPHEN HARPER, is now Western Canada VP at the Convenience Industry Council of Canada … CAROLINE DROMAGUET is the new permanent CEO of the Canadian Museum of History. Spotted: Tory MP TOM KMIEC, meeting Ontario Labor Minister MONTE MCNAUGHTON at Queen's Park … Carleton prof JONATHAN MALLOY teasing his next book on the paradox of Parliament: "I explain why Canadians are perpetually dissatisfied with the institution." Tory MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER, reading an AI-produced text into Hansard . The topic: why artificial intelligence should be unregulated. "It turns out it can do its own government relations," she joked in a tweet to ELON MUSK . Elections Canada Chief Electoral Officer STÉPHANE PERRAULT confirming in the Gazette the exact number of electors in Mississauga–Lakeshore: 89,795. The Royal Canadian Mint, announcing a new toonie to honor the late QUEEN ELIZABETH II with a “bold new look” that, as far as we can tell , consists of a black outer ring on each side. Media mentions: The Toronto Star's JACQUES GALLANT takes on the legal affairs beat . ALYSHAH SANMATI HASHAM moves from the paper's courts beat to Toronto city hall . Farewells: James Roy Mahoney, father of McMillan Vantage managing director Richard Mahoney, passed away peacefully on Nov. 27 . "Pax tecum, Dad," tweeted Richard. L. Ian MacDonald noted the passing of Sam Wakim , a former Progressive Conservative MP and classmate of Brian Mulroney.
| | On the Hill | | → Find upcoming House committees here → Keep track of Senate committees here 8:30 a.m. The Senate national finance committee meets to study Bill C-32 , the government’s legislation to implement certain provisions of the Fall Economic Statement. 11 a.m. MPs on the House heritage committee will take Bill C-18 , the Online News Act, through clause-by-clause consideration with four department officials to take questions. 11 a.m. The House official languages committee will hear from Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER and Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER regarding Bill C-13 , which would amend the Official Languages Act. 3 p.m. The Senate national finance committee gathers for its second meeting of the day to continue its study of Bill C-32. Witnesses for the afternoon session include Canadians for Tax Fairness’ KATRINA MILLER, PAUL KERSHAW of Generation Squeeze and the Canadian Real Estate Association’s MICHAEL BOURQUE. 3:30 p.m. DAVID BOYD, the UN’s special rapporteur on human rights and the environment, is a headlining witness at the House environment committee ’s meeting studying Bill S-5 . 3:30 p.m. The House public safety committee has clause-by-clause consideration of Bill C-21 , the Liberals’ firearms bill, on its agenda. 6:30 p.m. The special committee on Canada-China relations meets to hear from Saimen CEO CARL BREAU, the Macdonald-Laurier Institute’s CHARLES BURTON and the University of Ottawa’s MARGARET MCCUAIG-JOHNSTON. Behind closed doors: The House procedure and House affairs committee meets out of the public eye to review copies of reports related to MPs’ study of hybrid proceedings and potential expansion of the parliamentary precinct; the House natural resources committee is going over a draft report of its study into creating a “fair and equitable” energy transition; the House health committee meets to review a draft report of its study of Canada’s health workforce. More behind closed doors: Auditor General KAREN HOGAN will be a witness at the House public accounts committee to talk about her office’s December reports; the House fisheries committee meets to review two separate reports about climate crisis impacts and science at the federal fisheries and oceans department... And even more: The citizenship committee’s subcommittee on agenda and procedure meets privately to talk about “committee business”; ditto for the House public account committee ’s subcommittee on agenda and procedure; the House international trade committee has its ArriveCAN study on its secret agenda.
| | TRIVIA | | Monday’s answer: Former Nova Scotia finance minister GRAHAM STEELE wrote this in his 2014 memoir : "You could say that it was my signature that killed the Dexter government." The backstory: Five signatures were required to verify the order-in-council that dissolved the House of Assembly and called the 2013 election. Steele was fifth to add his name. Props to BOB GORDON, FRANCES FORD, MICHAEL MACDONALD, AMY BOUGHNER, LAURA JARVIS, JOANNA PLATER, GWENDOLYN MONCRIEFF-GOULD, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, BRAM ABRAMSON and HUGH BENEVIDES. Abramson reminded us that Steele is Nunavut’s current information and privacy commissioner. Tuesday’s question: Name the Canadian facility that one historian called a "cipher for grandiose fantasies about spymasters and secret agents." Hint: It opened on this day in [REDACTED]. Send your answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com . Playbook wouldn’t happen without: Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and Mike Zapler. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
