TO THE POLLS — What we can say with confidence about today’s byelection in Mississauga—Lakeshore is that it will either foreshadow what’s to come in the next federal election, or it won’t.
This byelection is kind of a big deal, as byelections go, as it’s the first since PIERRE POILIEVRE became Conservative leader. It’s also in the GTA, where the Conservatives need to make gains. Expect to see the phrase “litmus test” bandied about today. Heading into election day, polling suggests the Liberals have an edge. The riding was held by Liberal MP SVEN SPENGEMANN from 2015 until he resigned earlier this year to accept a role with the United Nations. As of Sunday, 338Canada gave the Liberals an 81 percent chance of holding the seat with star candidate CHARLES SOUSA, Ontario’s former finance minister. At the start of the campaign the polling site had the Conservatives in the lead, but creator PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER told Playbook the Liberals’ numbers have improved in Ontario in recent weeks. WHAT WILL THE RESULTS MEAN? — Everything and nothing, depending whom you ask. “Mississauga-Lakeshore was the 52nd best riding for the Conservatives in Ontario last election, and it’s difficult to map a pathway to a majority government for them that doesn’t include at least 52 seats in Ontario,” DAN ARNOLD, chief strategy officer at Pollara and former PMO research and advertising director, told Playbook. — But how much will today’s results really say about the general election, which may not take place till 2025? “I think if it’s a narrow loss [for the Conservatives] that’s actually pretty encouraging,” said Conservative strategist KATE HARRISON, vice-chair at Summa Strategies. “It’s a holiday-time byelection with a star candidate for the Liberals, so if we’re able to keep a pretty close margin — and I would say that’s probably within five percent — I think that would be very encouraging for the Tories because that’s room to grow.” — What should you watch? In the National Observer, strategist ANDREW PEREZ also points to the margin of victory as being more interesting than the actual result. If the Liberals eke out a “photo-finish win,” they may be losing ground in the GTA, he writes. But a clear loss for the Conservatives would bode ill for the opposition. — Messaging test: Conservative strategist SHAKIR CHAMBERS told the Canadian Press’s STEPHANIE TAYLOR the byelection could reveal whether Poilievre’s communications strategy , which relies heavily on social media, will motivate voters who are beyond the party’s base. And party insiders told the Toronto Star’s STEPHANIE LEVITZ the campaign will give a sense of how committed all the new members are who signed up during the leadership race. — Another take: According to two pollsters who spoke to the Hill Times’ ABBAS RANA , the byelection is really all about the ground game of KATIE TELFORD versus JENNI BYRNE. — Or maybe nothing matters: Don’t put too much stock in today’s results, no matter what they are, two experts told the Hub’s GEOFF RUSS . “We have no idea if what Poilievre is even talking about right now are still going to be issues [in 2025],” Mainstreet Research’s ROBERT MARTIN said. ON THE GROUND — It’s a safe bet that the losing party in today’s byelection will downplay its importance. But the Liberals and Conservatives have both poured considerable resources into this race. Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has stopped by . Liberal cabmins MARY NG and MÉLANIE JOLY were out doorknocking with Sousa over the weekend. Other ministers, including CAROLYN BENNETT, MARCI IEN and BILL BLAIR, have pitched in. Conservative deputy leader TIM UPPAL and finance critic JASRAJ SINGH HALLAN were out doorknocking this weekend with the Tory candidate, Peel region police officer RON CHHINZER. Conservative MPs JOHN BRASSARD, MICHAEL CHONG, TOM KMIEC and GARNETT GENUIS are among the others who’ve helped out. — A notable absence: Chhinzer joined the Conservative leader during a swing through town before Trudeau called the byelection. But this weekend, Poilievre was out in Atlantic Canada, where he held a town hall in Nova Scotia on Sunday. “It’s a difficult riding for us, but we have an excellent candidate,” he said last week of the byelection . ALSO RUNNING — The ballot in Mississauga—Lakeshore features 40 candidates, most of whom are part of a campaign to protest the Liberals’ broken promise on electoral reform. But the NDP and Green Party are also running candidates — JULIA KOLE and MARY KIDNEW. Did someone forward you this Playbook? Click here to sign up for your own . | 
