BEST GUESSES — Playbook put 10 questions about 2023 to some hand-picked political people willing to stick out their necks. We'll absolutely be checking these predictions in December when we award the 2023 Prize for Playbook Prophecy.
We also put the questions to the Magic 8 Ball. Will there be a general election? → No: DAN ARNOLD, YAROSLAV BARAN, KEVIN BOSCH, SHAKIR CHAMBERS, COLE HOGAN, CAM HOLMSTROM, GARRY KELLER, LISA KIRBIE, KARAMVEER LALH, JULIAN OVENS, NARESH RAGHUBEER, SUSAN SMITH → Yes: STEPHEN TAYLOR → Magic 8 Ball: “Outlook not so good.” Will the Tories win a byelection? This was a bit of a trick question. Barring a general election, the prime minister will have no choice but to call a by-election in Calgary Heritage. BOB BENZEN stepped down on New Year's Eve. The PM has six months to call the vote, and the byelection period can only run 50 days. Spoiler: The CPC will win that one. A prominent potential CPC nominee in the riding is SHUVALOY MAJUMDAR, a former senior aide to then-foreign minister JOHN BAIRD who is a prolific op-ed writer on global energy and geopolitical issues. Also on by-election watch: Oxford, Ont., a likely Tory hold where DAVE MACKENZIE is vacating the seat; and Winnipeg South Centre, which was held by the late JIM CARR . → Yes: Arnold, Baran, Bosch, Chambers, Hogan, Kirbie, Smith → No: Holmstrom, Keller, Lalh → Magic 8 Ball: “Without a doubt.” Will the government table a Pharmacare Act? Dentalcare was the first guarantee of the Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply deal's temporary survival. A national drug plan could be next. The Liberals promised to pass this bill before the end of the year, though the PM was more circumspect in his year-ender with CTV News. But will they even table it? → Yes: Baran, Bosch → No: Arnold, Chambers, Hogan, Holmstrom, Kirbie, Lalh, Ovens, Raghubeer, Smith, Taylor → Magic 8 Ball: “Don’t count on it.” Will inflation still be the top political issue? A Nanos Research poll published Dec. 28 pegged healthcare as the most important issue for voters, with inflation close behind. Then again, a Dec. 19 survey from the Angus Reid Institute gave inflation/cost of living a considerable advantage. → Yes: Bosch, Arnold, Holmstrom, Kirbie, Ovens, Raghubeer → No: Baran, Chambers, Hogan, Keller, Lalh, Smith, Taylor → Magic 8 Ball: “Without a doubt.” Will Danielle Smith win Alberta's provincial election? 338Canada's PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER is projecting a dead heat in Alberta, with Smith's United Conservatives tied at 46 percent with RACHEL NOTLEY's NDP. Fournier still gives the UCP a 60-per-cent chance of winning the likely May vote, but his graphs show volatility. → Yes: Baran, Chambers, Hogan, Keller, Lalh, Raghubeer, Taylor → No: Bosch, Arnold, Holmstrom, Kirbie, Ovens, Smith → Magic 8 Ball: “Most likely.” How many senators will be appointed? Over/under: 7 Trudeau has appointed 62 senators: 6 in 2022, 8 in 2021, 1 apiece in 2020 and 2019, 19 in 2018, 3 in 2017, and 24 in 2016. → Over: Arnold, Bosch, Kirbie, Lalh, Ovens, Raghubeer, Smith, Taylor → Under: Baran, Chambers, Hogan, Holmstrom, Keller How many ministers will be shuffled? Over/under: 6 It was a quiet year on the shuffling front following a substantial rejigging of Cabinet after the 2021 election. Most prognosticators foresee more musical chairs in 2023. → Over: Arnold, Baran, Bosch, Chambers, Hogan, Lalh, Ovens, Smith, Taylor → Under: Kirbie, Holmstrom, Raghubeer Excluding vacations, how many countries will Justin Trudeau visit? Over/under: 13 That's how many the PM checked off in 2022: United Kingdom, Latvia, Germany, Poland, Ukraine, United States, Rwanda, Spain, Japan, Cambodia, Indonesia, Thailand and Tunisia. → Over: Arnold, Bosch, Hogan, Keller, Lalh, Raghubeer → Under: Baran, Chambers, Holmstrom, Kirbie, Ovens, Smith, Taylor Which of these party leaders will keep their jobs? We'll note only the prognosticators who think any of these bosses will be out of a job. TRUDEAU: Hogan, Ovens, Taylor POILIEVRE: Nobody SINGH: Hogan, Keller, Taylor BLANCHET: Hogan MAY and PEDNEAULT: Hogan BERNIER: Hogan, Smith Will the Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup? Toronto's oft-humbled hockey club hasn't won the storied trophy since Canada's centennial year. It's been a long time. Is this their year? → Yes: Raghubeer and Ovens → No: Everybody else → Magic 8 Ball: “Don’t count on it.” Think you can beat this bunch? Share your thinking here . EVERYONE HAS THOUGHTS ON 2023 — The first half is “likely to be tough,” Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU predicted during the sit down with OMAR SACHEDINA that aired Dec. 31 on CTV. ROYCE MENDES, the managing director at Desjardins Capital Markets, advised the CBC’s PETER ARMSTRONG: “We could be in store for a bit of a doozy.” On the same network, “power panelists” picked inflation as the top story to watch. Just ahead of 2023, Superintendent of Financial Institutions PETER ROUTLEDGE told the Financial Post he’s not saying “all clear,” or even that Canada is through the hard part. “I’m just saying that we’ve got resilience so far.” The Logic’s 2023 Outlook includes inflation, industrial policy and crypto contagion. “We’re in an era of hunkering down,” HEATHER SCOFFIELD suggests in a column featuring input from STEPHEN POLOZ, KWAME MCKENZIE and LISA RAITT. Bottom line from KEVIN PAGE and the crew at the Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa: “There is more economic turbulence on the horizon.”
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