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Presented by Shaw Communications: A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | | | Send tips | Subscribe here | Email Nick | Follow Politico Canada Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey.Today, we take stock of where the economy's at and parse the words of policymakers. Plus, MPs have spent how much on shredding documents? Also, neither side is backing down in the DANIELLE SMITH vs. the CBC heavyweight bout.
| | A message from Shaw Communications: Last June, Shaw Communications announced that Videotron will acquire all of Freedom Mobile, which – to be clear – will never be owned by Rogers Communications. As a stronger fourth wireless carrier, Videotron will have all the tools it needs to compete effectively against the national carriers, including critical 5G spectrum. As the Competition Tribunal recently concluded, the new Videotron that will emerge from these transactions will be a more effective competitor than the present-day Freedom. Learn More | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | STORM'S A-BREWIN' —CTV News touted the least exclusive-y exclusive of this young year when Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM told Power Play that a mild recession could hit anxious Canadians in 2023. It wasn't an earth-shattering revelation. Most economists have spent months predicting a recession. And most of us already think we're in the middle of one, according to a Pollara survey. Macklem is not a sky-is-falling kind of guy, so he ultra-nuanced his comments during an interview with JOYCE NAPIER. "We're not predicting a recession, we're predicting roughly zero growth for the next two or three quarters," he said. "But, look, with roughly zero growth, we could get two or three quarters of slightly negative growth. So we can't rule out a mild recession." Of course, Macklem's job doesn't particularly depend on the strength of his predictions. (See: "Interest rates will be low for a long time" from 2020, and "You can be confident that we will keep the cost of living under control as the economy reopens" from 2021.) But anticipation of the bank's eighth-consecutive interest rate hike had people talking all week, including politicians whose jobs might rely on the economic state of the nation. We asked economists KEVIN PAGE and RANDALL BARTLETT to parse their talking points and translate their rhetoric. Trudeau: “The bad news is we know that the global economy is heading for some rough waters in the coming months, so that’s going to have an impact on Canadians. But what we also know is we’re going into these troubled waters with one of the strongest balance sheets of any of our allied countries. We’re the best in the G-7 in terms of deficit … so we’re going to be able to do what we did in the fall and be there to support people.” Translation via Bartlett: We are well-positioned to weather the storm. Freeland: “There is still a lot of uncertainty in the world economy. And that means we do need to continue to take a fiscally prudent approach. We still do not know for sure how the plane is going to land. We do not know for sure how the Covid recession is going to finally play out. And we do have the reopening of China as a new international — I won’t call it a wild card — but a source of real uncertainty.” Translation via Page: The government is nervous about economic prospects for 2023. You should be, as well. There is a choice between bad and ugly. Rest assured, new measures in Budget 2023 will be communicated as fiscally prudent. Translation via Bartlett: Despite all of the uncertainty in the world, we’ll try to keep the level of debt falling as a share of the economy. Macklem: “Economic developments evolved broadly in line with the forecast we published today. We expect to hold the policy rate at its current level while we assess the impact of the cumulative 425 basis point increase in our policy rate. We’ve raised rates rapidly, and now it’s time to pause and assess whether monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the 2 percent target.” Translation via Page: Pain is coming. The medication has nasty side effects. The record large and fast increase in interest rates over the past year is going to hurt household and business balance sheets in 2023. The Bank of Canada will be monitoring data on the patient. They will inflict as much pain as necessary to restore price stability. COUNTERPOINT — University of Calgary economist TREVOR TOMBE used the oh-so-rare-these-days O-word after he saw the Bank of Canada's latest monetary policy report (MPR for short). "I'm usually pretty optimistic, but after reading through much of the Bank's MPR this morning I'm even more so!" Tombe tweeted. "Easing inflation, strong labor markets, slowing but positive growth, and more. There are risks, but lots of positives here." OPPO LINES — Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE stayed true to the slightly modified stump speech he honed during the 2021 election campaign and perfected when he swooped into the party's post-ERIN O'TOOLE leadership vacuum almost a year ago. "A Poilievre government will reverse these inflationary policies, will cap spending, cut waste, fire the high-priced consultants who are gobbling up more than $15 billion — or $1,000 for every Canadian household every single year," Poilievre told reporters Wednesday. In other words: "Make more, cost less. Paychecks, not debt." You gotta respect the consistency.
| | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Ottawa for the Liberal national caucus winter retreat. He'll host a 7:30 p.m. dinner for KING ABDULLAH II of Jordan. — Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is also in Ottawa, in “private meetings.” She will attend the caucus retreat. 9:30 a.m. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA and Housing Minister AHMED HUSSEN are at the International Muslim Organization in Toronto for an announcement on combating Islamophobia. 10:30 a.m. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT and Families Minister KARINA GOULD are at the University of Toronto for a funding announcement on natural spaces. 11 a.m. The federal privacy commissioner’s office will release its findings of an investigation into Home Depot’s sharing of customer data with Meta. 1 p.m. (11 a.m. MT) Tourism Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT makes an announcement about high-speed internet in Wabasca-Desmarais, Alberta. 1:30 p.m. Universities Canada, the Canadian Alliance of Student Associations and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce hold a press conference in West Block to call on Ottawa to address what they say is a talent crisis facing the country.
| | | | A message from Shaw Communications:   | | | | | For your radar | | EXPENSE FILES — The National Post's Hill bureau entered the MP Financial Disclosure Reporting Sweepstakes with a file on the dozens of parliamentarians who've had taxpayers foot the bill for their home internet. The Post examined the most recent quarterly data available. Playbook readers will recall we've got a mega-spreadsheet that tracks a full year's worth of expenses — everything disclosed between Oct. 1, 2021 and Sept. 30, 2022. That reporting piqued our interest. We ran the numbers, too. — The big numbers: How many MPs had us pay for the internet at their primary residences? The answer is 93. Forty-one Conservatives. 35 Liberals. 13 Bloquistes. Three New Democrats. And one independent MP. — The total bill: C$95,318.61, or 0.063 percent of all MP expenses for the same period. — And in fairness: Who among us privileged desk jockeys could hold it against fellow white-collar workers — yes, even those whose salaries are paid by us — for expensing parts of their home office? It's a hybrid world, at least for now, and wouldn't you send your boss a bill if you could? Which reminds us: Don't forget to claim every penny of your home office expenses this year. Instructions are right here. — Miscellany: MPs collectively expensed C$28,216.53 on pins and flags. They also tallied C$36,802.44 in shredding services — about C$100 per day. THAT SOUNDS FAMILIAR — Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH is locked in a public fight with the CBC over a recent story that claimed her office had challenged "prosecutors' assessment and direction on cases stemming from the Coutts border blockades and protests" last year. Smith kicked the fight up a notch Wednesday, calling the bombshell story "defamatory" and "outrageous" and "baseless." — A rebuttal: How did CBC reporters respond? They doubled down. — Another denial: "While Premier Smith requested briefings and they were provided, at no point in time was there any direction provided to the Attorney General by the Premier or her office. The Alberta Crown Prosecution Service acts independently and at no time has any political decision affected ongoing prosecutions," said a Smith spokesperson. — Remember this? "The allegations in the Globe story are false. Neither the current nor the previous attorney general was ever directed by me or by anyone in my office to take a decision in this matter." That was PM Trudeau at the outset of the SNC-Lavalin Affair, insisting he didn't pressure then-justice minister JODY WILSON-RAYBOULD to offer a deferred prosecution agreement to the engineering giant. A few months after Trudeau's statement, ethics commissioner MARIO DION came to a different conclusion. Stay tuned for the latest on the Smith/CBC imbroglio.
| | MEDIA ROOM | | — “Many Liberal ministers are looking ahead to the next election, and musing about whether Trudeau and the government need to rebrand, or at the least refresh their public messaging,” TONDA MACHARLES writes out of the Cabinet retreat in Hamilton. — CHRISTOPHER GULY previews the return of the House for The Hill Times. — Ontario MPP LISA MACLEOD was on The Agenda to discuss mental health issues. “Someone who you think is strong and can do anything and is capable, could be sick. … So maybe let's not judge people," she said. — COLIN HORGAN writes on "Peter MacKay's F-35 Revisionism." — Our colleagues in Washington report: Biden’s next 2 years: A brutal war and a rough campaign. — EVAN SCRIMSHAW challenges the conventional wisdom that divisiveness is a bad thing. He encourages the Liberals to lean into the label — and pick tough fights they can win. — The Toronto Star's JOSH RUBIN explores the Native Women Association of Canada's "Change the Bill" campaign. — In case you missed it, in Thursday’s Playbook, ZI-ANN LUM asked veterans of the Hill: How do you know when it’s time to go?
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Birthdays: Former NDP MP CID SAMSON is 80. HBD + 1 to Liberal MP ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER! Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. Spotted: A bevy of Conservative donors attending PIERRE POILIEVRE's exclusive Toronto Club fundraiser earlier this month. Among the 84 attendees: MARK and NICOLAS MULRONEY, Medcan CEO SHAUN FRANCIS, Women in Capital Markets CEO LARA ZINK, Anthem Sports CEO LEONARD ASPER, former Cabmins JOHN BAIRD and TONY CLEMENT, rookie MP ADAM CHAMBERS, Porter executive chair ROBERT DELUCE, founding Postmedia CEO PAUL GODFREY, Bennett Jones CEO HUGH MACKINNON, Fratton Park founder REGAN WATTS, Prospectus Associates co-founder BILL PRISTANSKI, and National Bank Financial vice-chair DAN NOWLAN. Ottawa Centre MP YASIR NAQVI, celebrating his 50th birthday with the Most Politician Cake Possible. CATHERINE MCKENNA, with a message for Toronto from the rest of Canada … Liberal MP KODY BLOIS, taking a break from work to indulge in Robbie Burns Day … MICHAEL GORT, Canada's ambo in Chile, hanging out with a patio full of Canucks. Movers and shakers: Alberta MLA DREW BARNES won't seek the United Conservative nomination, and will now sit as an independent member … Aurora Strategy Global's EMMA WAKELIN is campaign manager on TED HSU's run for Ontario Liberal leader. Defense contractors are busy in the lobbyist registry. General Dynamics tapped Hill + Knowlton senior account director MIKE PLASTINO to express interest in DND's effort to replace the CP-140 Aurora maritime patrol aircraft. The department estimates the eventual contract will be worth C$5 billion. The military also wants to replace its fleet of light-duty vehicles at an estimated cost of C$250 million–C$499 million. General Motors put CFN Consultants partner DANIEL MACISAAC on the case. MacIsaac is also repping IAI, an Israeli aerospace manufacturer that wants to sell DND unmanned aerial vehicles, air and ground-based radar, counter-drone technologies and electronic warfare systems.
| | A message from Shaw Communications: Over the past four months, the Competition Tribunal, an independent adjudicative body that was chaired by one of this country’s preeminent Competition Law experts, reviewed thousands of pages of evidence and hours of testimony.
Learn More | | | | | PROZONE | | If you’re a , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter: A pause, a workaround and deal in reach In other Pro headlines:
— Can Biden’s DOJ really shatter Google’s grip on digital ads?
— Bivalent booster cuts risk of XBB.1.5 symptomatic infection by about half.
— Macklem raises rate, but announces 'time to pause.’
— 338Canada: The battle for Alberta is closer than it seems.
— GOP lawmakers accuse the tech giants of complicity in fentanyl crisis.
| | On the Hill | | 10 a.m. Via Rail officials will be at the House transport committee to take questions on holiday travel chaos that left passengers stranded on the tracks, or out of luck with canceled trains. 1 p.m. The House public accounts committee will consult Auditor General Karen Hogan and top officials from the Canada Revenue Agency as it reviews AG reports on Covid benefits. 1 p.m. In its second session of the day, the House transport committee will hear from the Canadian Automobile Association, Public Interest Advocacy Centre, Transport Action Atlantic and Gábor Lukács of Air Passenger Protection Regulations. → Find the latest on House committee meetings here. → Keep track of Senate committee meetings here. The House returns Jan. 30; the Senate returns Jan. 31.
| | TRIVIA | | Wednesday’s answer: JOHN IVISON, National Post columnist and Ottawa bureau chief, is the author of The Riotous Passions of Robbie Burns. Props to MP DAN ALBAS, SEAN WEBSTER, KEVIN BOSCH, JOHN DILLON, NARESH RAGHUBEER, ANDRÉ BRISEBOIS, PATRICK DION, GORDON RANDALL, WALTER ROBINSON, LAURA PAYTON, FRANCIS DOWNEY, NANCI WAUGH, BRIAN KLUNDER, LAURA JARVIS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DAN MCCARTHY, STUART BENSON and LUCAS MALINOWSKI. Today’s question: On his day trip to Ottawa in 2009, BARACK OBAMA made a pitstop in the Byward Market. What did he pick up there? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage and Sue Allan. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
