The president’s March

From: POLITICO Ottawa Playbook - Thursday Feb 16,2023 11:06 am
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Ottawa Playbook

By Nick Taylor-Vaisey

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Thanks for reading the Ottawa Playbook. I'm your host, Nick Taylor-Vaisey. Today, we game out the potential dates in March for a POTUS visit. Plus, we dive deep into the burbling anger emanating from Canada's best suburb.

THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING


LUCKI RESIGNS — RCMP commissioner BRENDA LUCKI announced her resignation late Wednesday, effective March 17. "I leave knowing I did my best," she said in a statement.

Lucki faced scrutiny for her leadership during the 'Freedom Convoy' occupation. In the coming days, the government is publishing the final report from the Public Order Emergency Commission headed up by Justice PAUL ROULEAU.

MAID REPORT — The special joint committee on medical assistance in dying tabled its second report: "Choices for Canadians" on Wednesday. Among 23 recommendations, the committee called on the government to "allow for advance requests" for MAiD "following a diagnosis of a serious and incurable medical condition, disease, or disorder leading to incapacity."

MAIN ESTIMATES — Treasury Board President MONA FORTIER tabled the 2023–24 main estimates late Wednesday afternoon. Total budgetary spending for the next fiscal year is projected to be C$432,941,644,807.

There's no hint, however, at what's to come in CHRYSTIA FREELAND's next budget: "Due to the need to table Main Estimates on or by March 1, emerging priorities and items announced in Budget 2023 will be included in future Estimates documents," the doc reads.

DRIVING THE DAY

President Joe Biden gestures as he steps off Air Force One, Thursday, Feb. 9, 2023, at Tampa International Airport in Tampa, Fla. Biden is visiting Tampa to speak about his administration's plans to protect Social Security and Medicare and lower healthcare costs. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

President Joe Biden steps off Air Force One, Feb. 9 at Tampa International Airport. | AP

PLACE YOUR BETS — When it comes to JOE BIDEN's trip to Canada, we know two things for certain. Biden is visiting in March, and March includes 31 days.

Beyond that, the Unofficial Month of Biden is all speculation. Playbook is now prepared to speculate reasonably based on an unreasonable amount of texting, calling and emailing to insiders who flagged key dates and plausible possibilities.

Here's what we've learned so far.

— Narrowing the calendar: Let's remove weekends, for the sake of argument. That leaves us 23 prospective dates: March 1–3, 6–10, 13–17, 20–24 and 27–31.

— Narrow it more: The G-20 foreign ministers are meeting in Delhi, India, on the first two days of the month. If Foreign Affairs Minister MÉLANIE JOLY is going to be in Canada for Biden's trip, we can likely rule out those days.

— March 6–10: Rumors are swirling that this could be POTUS Week.

Delegates from all over the mining industry descend on Toronto for the annual Prospectors and Developers Association of Canada convention.

The confab runs from the 3rd to the 8th, and typically attracts a coterie of ministers that could include JONATHAN WILKINSON, MARY NG, FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE, STEVEN GUILBEAULT, CHRYSTIA FREELAND — and PM JUSTIN TRUDEAU, who attended the 2020 gathering at the dawn of Covid.

But even if PDAC complicates Biden scheduling, the 9th and 10th remain wide open.

— March 13–17: Rumors are also swirling about this being POTUS Week.

The mid-month respite on the House of Commons calendar could rule that out. MPs of all stripes typically retreat to their ridings for March Break, and Cabinet ministers tour the country with federal dough to dole out.

A Parliament not sitting would complicate a prospective parliamentary address. If that's on the docket, that is. BARACK OBAMA served one up, as did BILL CLINTON and several other POTUSes.

Unless the House is recalled for a special sitting on, say, St. Patrick's Day. Imagine an Irish Catholic president speaking in the House and then ambling down Wellington Street for a green pint at D'Arcy McGee's pub. Irish eyes would be smiling.

Biden had other St. Patty's Day plans last year.

— March 20–31: These are the final two sitting weeks before a two-week April break surrounding Easter and Passover. But here is where Biden rumors run up against budget whispers. Few seasoned observers anticipate a March budget this year, but a days-long media blackout will precede Freeland's big announcement.

Now we're getting ahead of ourselves.

Are you Joe Biden? Do you know when you're flying to Canada? Tell us! Are you an insider we don't know and/or haven't bugged about this? Spill! Are you an outsider but are supremely confident in your prognosticatory talents? We're here!

TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in the Bahamas.

— Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Toronto to meet with union leaders as part of pre-budget consultations.

8:25 a.m. Trudeau will meet with Bahamian PM PHILIP DAVIS.

9 a.m. Trudeau will meet with Barbadian PM MIA MOTTLEY.

10 a.m. Trudeau will meet with Jamaican PM ANDREW HOLNESS.

10:30 a.m. Trudeau will meet with Haitian PM ARIEL HENRY.

10:45 a.m. NDP leader JAGMEET SINGH will speak to reporters about the NDP's opposition day motion on "rebuilding Canada's public health-care system."

11 a.m. Bank of Canada Governor TIFF MACKLEM and senior deputy governor CAROLYN ROGERS will be at the House finance committee to discuss the central bank’s report on monetary policy.

12 p.m. Trudeau will participate in a CARICOM plenary session and deliver remarks.

12:45 p.m. Trudeau will participate in a "family photo" with CARICOM leaders.

1 p.m. Trudeau will attend a working luncheon given by Davis.

5:30 p.m. Trudeau will hold a media availability.

6:10 p.m. (4:10 MST) Bank of Canada deputy governor PAUL BEAUDRY is in Edmonton to deliver a speech at the University of Alberta about the central bank’s 2 percent inflation target.

9 p.m. Trudeau will depart for Ottawa.

For your radar

IT'S OFFICIAL — Toronto mayor JOHN TORY's office circulated a resignation letter to journalists. He'll formally vacate the position on Friday at 5 p.m. So much for the "tickety-boo" city, to quote Ontario Premier DOUG FORD.

WEDGE DAY — The NDP's health-care-focused opposition motion to be debated today calls on the government to "express disappointment that the prime minister has promoted Ontario’s for-profit health plans as 'innovation.' "

The motion wants the feds to mandate that federal health-care transfer top-ups "not used for the expansion of for-profit health care, but instead used to rebuild and innovate within the public system by hiring more staff and reducing wait times."

Finally, the New Democrats want the government to "enforce the Canada Health Act and immediately move to close loopholes that allow for the growth of two-tier health care in Canada."

SCARBOROUGH REPRESENT — Liberal MP SALMA ZAHID is hopping mad with the three-person commission that redesigned Ontario's federal ridings.

Every province's commission has submitted new maps that will create a total of five new ridings in Canada and rejig the boundaries of hundreds of others based on population growth.

It doesn't always go off without a hitch.

— Back story: Seldom has a city that technically no longer exists maintained such a fierce sense of pride among its residents. The multicultural suburb has the best food in Toronto, a national park on its eastern flank, and literal cliffs overlooking Lake Ontario. The civic center was designed by RAYMOND MORIYAMA. The subway ends there, even if the rest of Toronto doesn't know it.

These things matter to the people who are from there, your Playbook host included.

— Don't mess with our ridings: Ontario's riding redistributors heard that message loud and clear.

The commission decided to cut a district from Toronto, which hasn't grown as quickly as other parts of the province. Scarborough took the hit in the initial proposal, losing one of its six ridings. Parts of the 'burb were even shunted into neighboring — ugh — North York.

Scarberians didn't go quietly into the night. The Star's KATIE DAUBS wrote a long January feature about the outcry. “Residents of North York do not understand, do not care about, and cannot be expected to vote in Scarborough’s best interest,” she quoted from resident JULIA D'SILVA's letter to the commission.

— A red line: Scarborough runs from Steeles Avenue south to the lake, and west from the Rouge River to Victoria Park Avenue. West of Vic Park is, well, somewhere else. The commissioners' revised proposal kept parts of six ridings in Scarborough, which now had VP all to itself.

— Not good enough: That gesture futzed with nearby riding boundaries, too, launching new complaints from residents. Zahid released a fiery letter. A major Muslim community would be split between two ridings, she claimed, adding her constituents have no further opportunity to make their voices heard. (Technically, it now falls to Zahid to speak for them, which she is doing.)

Zahid's conclusion: "This is anti-democratic and insulting to my constituents." She wants changes to the process that allow for more public consultation.

— Wait, there's more: Liberal MP MICHAEL COTEAU is also fuming. His Don Valley East riding will now be absorbed partially into the western Scarborough ridings. “Our community doesn’t even know they have been eliminated,” he said in a press release.

— The process: Zahid and Coteau can voice their people's gripes when the procedure and House affairs committee debates the province's proposed boundaries. The committee can submit objections to the commission, which will then consider them before submitting a final final report to the House of Commons.

Prepare for some strong language. Who said riding redistribution was boring?

KEEPING COUNT — It's always been a bit of a mystery how many readers subscribe to Substack newsletters. The platform never made it obvious just how many people's inboxes pinged every time a popular writer published a post. Until now.

— A rough idea: A new feature on Substack front pages displays an approximate number of s. Playbook scanned the landscape.

Some of the audiences are massive. Take Letters from an American, which has more than 1 million s. GLENN GREENWALD has amassed at least 291,000.

In Canada, The Line has topped 18,000. Tory MP MICHELLE REMPEL GARNER passed 16,000. MARGARET ATWOOD trails at 15,000-plus. Former CBC journalist TARA HENLEY racked up more than 14,000. Rempel Garner's caucus mate TOM KMIEC has more than 8,000. PAUL WELLS boasts over 13,000. CHRISTOPHER CURTIS's The Rover hit the 6,000 mark. ÉRIC GRENIER's The Writ has piled up more than 4,000. DAVID MOSCROP breached 2,000, as has SABRINA NANJI's Queen's Park Observer.

— What we don't know: The proportion of paid versus unpaid s. Substack estimates 5 to 10 percent of readers fork over cash to their fave writers, though some writers convert more than others. A typical subscription fee can run $5 per month or $50 annually. You do the math.

MEDIA ROOM

Migrants wheel their luggage down Roxham Road in Champlain, N.Y.

The Quebec government has long been calling on the federal government to shut down the unofficial crossing. | Charles Krupa/AP Photo

— For Law360, MAUREEN SILCOFF makes the case for practical solutions at the informal Roxham Road border crossing.

— Top of POLITICO this hour: Senior Democrats’ private take on Biden: He’s too old.

— "It's a bloodbath, I've never seen anything like it." That's the lead quote from CHRISTOPHER CURTIS's latest Rover dispatch, Knives Out at the Montreal Gazette.

— Former senior Hill staffer STEPHEN KELLY pitches a new energy policy for Canada at The Hub. He also gives a shout-out to downtown Ottawa's Colonnade Pizza.

CHRIS MCBAIN, an Alberta-based undergrad who was once addicted to crystal meth, argues for both harm reduction and drug treatment in a CBC column.

PLAYBOOKERS


Birthdays: HBD to GREG SELINGER, former premier of Manitoba. POLITICO founder ROBERT ALLBRITTON also celebrates today. HBD + 1 to DAN ARNOLD.

Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com.

Spotted: Tory MPs MELISSA LANTSMAN and ERIC DUNCAN, bidding adieu to the Rideau Street McDonald's that was "once a staple of our 2 a.m. staffer diets" … YVES-FRANÇOIS BLANCHET, ushered out of the House foyer by the Speaker's parade.

Among a slew of published orders-in-council: The Canadian Security Intelligence Service's new collective agreement with the Public Service Alliance of Canada … Associate deputy minister of natural resources MOLLIE JOHNSON adding a new title as special adviser to the clerk of the Privy Council on decarbonization … New honorary consuls in western Australia, North Dakota, Alaska, Cuba, Nigeria, Namibia and Djibouti.

Movers and shakers: Former Liberal Hill staffer JORDAN OWENS kicked off her first week as Yukon's director of Cabinet comms with a UFO shootdown and a PM visit … The Sandstone Group crew signed up to lobby for Syqe Medical, which aims to talk to Ottawa about "critical barriers to providing innovative medical cannabis treatments."

Media mentions: The Canadian Journalists for Free Expression honored SABA EITIZAZ, RACHEL GILMORE and ERICA IFILL in Toronto last evening with the 2023 Tara Singh Hayer Memorial Award.

DINA PUGLIESE announced Wednesday that she’s leaving Breakfast Television. Speaking of the job's early hours, Pugliese said “more and more it’s taken both a mental and physical toll.”

PROZONE


If you’re a , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter from MAURA FORREST: NDP MP nails backing for timber bill

In other Pro headlines:
The newest battle over IRA money.
Ukraine to Russia: Stop using food as a weapon.
Debt limit will hit by September, federal forecasters predict.
Good time to lower oil price cap, central banker says.
WHO COVID origins investigation is ‘stymied.’

On the Hill

Find the latest on House committee meetings here.

Keep track of Senate committee meetings here.

9 a.m. Parliamentary Budget Officer YVES GIROUX will publish two new reports on federal program spending on housing in 2022 and corporate loss utilization.

9 a.m. The Senate energy and environment committee will continue its study of climate change and the Canadian oil and gas industry.

9 a.m. The Senate internal economy committee will meet to consider financial and administrative matters.

9 a.m. The Senate agriculture and forestry committee will continue its study of the status of soil health in Canada.

9 a.m. Environment commissioner JERRY DEMARCO will appear before the Senate fisheries and oceans committee.

11 a.m. The House science and research committee continues its study of citizen scientists, before heading in camera at 12:45 p.m. for drafting instructions on its report on international moonshot programs.

11 a.m. The House transport committee will resume its study of inter-city transport by bus in Canada.

11:30 a.m. The Senate social affairs committee will continue its study of Canada’s temporary and migrant labor force.

11:30 a.m. The Senate foreign affairs committee will hear from ANDRIY MELNYK, Ukraine’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, regarding the situation in Ukraine.

11:30 a.m. The Senate banking and commerce committee will continue its study of Bill C-228, which would strengthen pension protections.

11:30 a.m. The Senate legal and constitutional affairs committee will continue its study of Bill S-212, which would provide for the expiry of criminal records.

3:30 p.m. The House environment committee continues clause-by-clause consideration of Bill S-5, which would overhaul the Canadian Environmental Protection Act.

3:30 p.m. The House heritage committee will hear from sport integrity commissioner SARAH-ÈVE PELLETIER as part of its study of safe sport in Canada.

3:30 p.m. Bloc Québécois MP LUC THÉRIAULT will appear before the House international trade committee to discuss his private member’s bill, C-282, which aims to protect supply management.

6:30 p.m. The House committee on veterans affairs will consult witnesses for their study on employment after service.

Behind closed doors: The House procedure committee will consider two draft reports on riding redistributions in Manitoba and Saskatchewan; the House fisheries and oceans committee will review a draft report on the North Atlantic right whale; the House status of women committee will consider a draft report on the mental health of young women and girls.

TRIVIA


Wednesday’s answer: Sen. MARIE-FRANÇOISE MÉGIE spent five years at the helm of the Association of Haitian Physicians Abroad.

Props to SHAUGHN MCARTHUR and ROBERT MCDOUGALL.

Today’s question: Who is Canada’s 10th Parliamentary Poet Laureate?

Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

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