| FIRST THING — Ukrainian Prime Minister DENYS SHMYHAL is in Toronto today. Shmyhal and Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU will hold a bilateral meeting at 10:15 a.m. They'll be joined by Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND, Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY and Defense Minister ANITA ANAND. At noon, the same group will gather for a signing ceremony. They'll follow that up with a working lunch at 1:15. SECOND THING — Canadian Press was first with the news that KATIE TELFORD, the only chief of staff Trudeau has ever known as prime minister, will testify at the procedure and House affairs committee Friday. — What we still don't know: Exactly when that day Telford will testify. We've been bugging the Prime Minister's Office for updates just like everybody else (and furiously refresh this website). WATCHDOG WEAKNESS — Nobody really criticizes YVES GIROUX. Everybody quotes him when it suits their needs. The parliamentary budget officer is a rare voice in Ottawa — virtually beyond reproach, thanks to a reputation for meticulous adherence to data. The PBO is a fiscal and economic analysis machine, and regularly costs out the price of federal programs — and, during elections, party platform promises. KAREN HOGAN, the auditor general, cultivates a similar reputation every time she drops a scathing audit. When Giroux and Hogan want to make news, they do. Simple as that. But what happens when their word isn't perfect? Or leaves room for ambiguity? — A pithy dismissal: "In other news, the PBO blew it," tweeted STEPHEN GORDON, the curmudgeonly econ prof from Université Laval. Gordon was talking about the talker of a report from Giroux's desk that has turned a national carbon tax debate on its head. — Let's back up a bit: The government has insisted for years that steadily increasing fuel charges tied to carbon emissions — aka a carbon tax — won't hurt most Canadian families. They say a rebate, er, "climate action incentive," will leave eight out of 10 households with more money. Back in 2019, the PBO said as much in a report. A year later, Giroux's assessment of the carbon levy's overall economic impact warned that "most households" in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario would see smaller rebates than they paid in fuel charges. Still, Liberals quoted the dated "eight out of 10" data. — The new report: At the end of March, Giroux released new numbers on the fiscal and economic impact of the federal fuel charges. "We estimate that most households will see a net loss," he reported, setting off a new wave of Conservative outrage. (By the way, expect more posturing on carbon taxes when the House returns next week.) — Caveat alert: Giroux tucked in a notable note at the bottom of the release. His latest report "does not attempt to account for the economic and environmental costs of climate change." Translation: Every climate policy comes at a cost to somebody. And a lack of climate policy has a price, too. The PBO estimated last November that higher temps and precipitation, combined with unpredictable weather patterns, could reduce Canada's GDP by 5.8 percent over the next 80 years. — Spin room: Giroux told CP's MIA RABSON in an interview in response to the controversy that government critics are ignoring key context in his report. "There will be costs no matter what we do," he said. But Giroux didn't lead with that context in his report's press release, and PBO publications aren't exactly penned for the masses. He did stick that nuance into an interview with CTV's VASSY KAPELOS, but not before spelling out for her viewers — at length — the financial pain awaiting households caught up in rising carbon prices. — Reality check: There's a hard truth here. "Economists never said the carbon tax would be costless. What we did say was that the carbon tax was the least-costly option available," the Laval economist Gordon told his followers. "If you want to jump up and down about the cost of the carbon tax, please offer a less-costly alternative, because we can't think of one." Translation on that one: Someone has to pay to cut emissions. An Ipsos poll from last November lays bare the political challenge for any government that wants major reductions. Three in every five Canadians "can’t or don’t want to pay more taxes to fight against climate change." Most people are worried about climate change. Many are willing to pony up. More don't think they should have to. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT insists the wealthiest among us are footing most of the bill. The PBO casts doubt on that conclusion. What's missing in the debate is the cost of any alternatives. Know someone who could use Ottawa Playbook? Direct them to this link. Five days a week, zero dollars.
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