SMITH VS. NOTLEY — There may be no purer Rorschach test in politics than a highly anticipated election debate. If you liked the cut of DANIELLE SMITH's jib, you probably thought she won Thursday night's Alberta leaders debate with RACHEL NOTLEY.
Flip the party preference, flip the results. That's the way of the partisan brain. — Was there a consensus on the outcome? Not exactly. MIKE SOLBERG called it a "SPICYYYYYY" one. KEN BOESSENKOOL ruled it a draw. MAX FAWCETT called it for Smith. LUCAS MEYER might've won the take contest: "I suspect the UCP is happy tonight and that [the] NDP feel it was good, but could’ve been great. A lot of ammo went unfired." Clear as mud, right? — It wasn't useless: Nearly half of voters told Ipsos their choice could depend on the debate, so all the arguing and contrasting and pivoting chased that potential support. Here are four takeaways from the fracas: 1. Pipelines still matter. Alberta is a rare province in which a New Democrat can boast about building a pipeline to tidewater without alienating the base. Smith and Notley violently agreed that emissions can fall even if oil and gas investment and production endures. Welcome to the province where the Oilers are celebrated, not renamed. Smith complained that Notley wouldn't disavow a federal plan to achieve a net-zero energy grid by 2035. Even Notley's NDP cousins in Saskatchewan, Smith said, supported Premier SCOTT MOE's commitment to net zero by 2050. (In a bit of theater of the absurd, former Saskatchewan premier BRAD WALL also gave credit to his past rivals.) 2. Imperfection is a selling point. Notley's term as premier coincided with an oil price crash and a tough economy. Many voters still blame her for the bad times. Smith carries a talk radio career's worth of baggage that has haunted her for years. The leaders' closing statements both offered contrition for real and/or perceived faults. Smith: “My commitment to you, if reelected, is to serve you with everything I have, and to the best of my ability — however imperfect that may be at times.” Notley: “You may not always agree with me, and I may not have always gotten it right, but I say what I mean, and I mean what I say.” 3. That broken ethics law. The timing of Alberta ethics commissioner MARGUERITE TRUSSLER's report couldn't have been more nightmarish for the UCP leader. Hours before the debate, Trussler found that Smith broke the conflict-of-interest rules by contacting Attorney General TYLER SHANDRO about charges against anti-Covid measures protester ARTUR PAWLOWSKI. "It is a threat to democracy to interfere with the administration of justice," Trussler wrote. Notley weaponized that finding on the debate stage. Smith skirted around Trussler's conclusion, focusing instead on an ace in the hole elsewhere in the commissioner's report. Trussler found no evidence Smith had contacted crown prosecutors directly about Pawlowski's legal troubles — a key claim in CBC reporting repeated by the NDP. Smith called on Notley to apologize for the insinuation. Notley did not. 4. No knockout punches. A large constituency of debate watchers tunes in for the big line. The killer blow that turns the election on its head. Alberta's 2015 debate had the "math is difficult" snafu that fueled Notley's rise to power. — Would there be one in 2023? "There was no defining moment," DON BRAID writes in the Calgary Herald: "That was good for Smith, because unexpected and vivid surprises can decide elections." Notley tried a couple. "Your understanding of the word guarantee is very different from that of most Albertans," she said, pointing out that time Smith promised never to cross the floor in 2014 before she crossed the floor from the Wildrose Party to the PCs. Also: "Ms. Smith wants to fight with Ottawa. You want to fight with the media. You want to fight, frankly, with your former self." Zingers, to be sure. But knockout blows? No way. — RICK BELL's take in the Sun: After the debate, Danielle Smith is still standing and winning GRADING ON A CURVE — Playbook asked Edmonton-based lawyer and commentator KARAMVEER LALH, a former Tory war roomer, to measure Smith's performance. "I think Smith benefitted somewhat from the heavy opposition dump against her coming into the debate in the sense that it lowered expectations for her. A good chunk of Albertans have only ever heard Smith in clips, and this was the first opportunity for many to hear her speak for an extended period of time. She's clearly very charismatic and I think Albertans who were on the fence about her likely leave the debate feeling more reassured." — Was it enough to secure a win? "I don't think anyone, except maybe JANET BROWN, has done well predicting Alberta elections," says Lalh. "But I'll say that so long as nothing else weird happens between now and the start of advance voting on Tuesday, I'd expect Smith to be sniffing around 50 seats when we wake up on the 30th."
| 
