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T-MINUS 14 DAYS — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU has called four by-elections for June 19.
With two weeks until voting day, we asked 338Canada analyst and POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER for a preview. “Don’t expect many surprises,” he advised. “Though, how the main parties do could offer some pointers on voter enthusiasm.”Here’s Fournier with the down-low: Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount Behind the by-election: Liberal MP and former Cabinet minister MARC GARNEAU resigned his seat in March. In a snapshot: This riding in the heart of Montreal has voted Liberal for more than a half century. It was one of the few places in Quebec to resist the orange wave in 2011. JACK LAYTON’s NDP won 59 of the province’s then 75 seats, more than any other party since PIERRE TRUDEAU’s near sweep in 1980. There is high linguistic and cultural diversity in the riding — French is the native language of 29 percent of the population and English 44 percent, according to 2021 census data. Garneau won his three elections in NDG-Westmount by comfortable margins (30+ points), never receiving a vote share below 53 percent. What to watch: It will be worth noting how Green Party deputy leader JONATHAN PEDNEAULT fares against what should be an easy win for Liberal candidate and former party president ANNA GAINEY. Oxford Behind the by-election: Conservative MP DAVE MACKENZIE announced his retirement in December. In a snapshot: Running under the Conservative banner, Mackenzie earned this rural district by comfortable margins, most recently by 26 points over the Liberals in 2021 — a gap of more than 16,000 votes. The last time the Liberals won Oxford in 2000, two conservative parties (Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative) split the right-of-center vote. These days, there is in-fighting in this relatively safe Conservative riding. MacKenzie called out his former party on the nomination process, and has since endorsed the Liberal candidate. What to watch: Could this flip Oxford for the Liberals? Looking at past results, it appears unlikely. Portage–Lisgar Behind the by-election: Conservative MP Candice Bergen resigned her seat in February. In a snapshot: Bergen swept this southern Manitoba riding in 2019 with 71 percent of the vote — 60 points ahead of her closest rival. In what was MAXIME BERNIER’s People’s Party’s first election, the PPC garnered 2.6 percent in Portage–Lisgar. Bergen won comfortably in 2021, but dropped 19 points and fell to 52.5 percent. The ground she lost was nearly equal to the gains of the PPC, which placed second with 21.6 percent. It was the highest tally for the PPC in 2019 — higher than support for Bernier in his riding of Beauce. What to watch: It’s no surprise to see Bernier running in Portage–Lisgar, a test to see if PPC supporters still side with his populist-libertarian message against a CPC that since Poiilevre’s arrival at the helm seems to have to put a lot of effort into courting back those voters. The gap between the CPC and PPC in 2021 was 14,000 votes. This is a by-election, so turnout should be lower and perhaps Bernier could prove a surprise. However, the one issue that drove many voters to the PPC in 2021 — pandemic management and health measures — is now on the horizon. Winnipeg South Centre Behind the by-election: The passing of long-time Liberal MP JIM CARR. In a snapshot: BEN CARR is running to replace his late father. The Conservative candidate is DAMIR STIPANOVIC, a first-generation Canadian who works as an air traffic controller in the Royal Canadian Air Force Reserve. What to watch: The riding has consistently voted for the LIberals since the riding was created in 1988, except for 2011 when STEPHEN HARPER’s Conservatives won their only majority. Could there be an upset in Winnipeg South Centre? Federal polls in Manitoba are often bundled up with neighboring Saskatchewan, so we have little data with which to work for an accurate forecast. Nevertheless, we have not seen in the polls such a swing that would suggest the CPC can close the 18 points that separated Jim Carr from the CPC candidate in 2021. Barring a collapse of the Liberals vote in Winnipeg, the LPC should hold this seat. Know someone who would like Ottawa Playbook? Please direct them to this link . Five days a week, zero dollars.
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