| 'TIS THE SEASON — The cavalcade of Cabinet shuffle speculation will soon be upon us. It's widely known that a reset is coming. It's just a matter of when. This week, Playbook will take midsummer stock of each minister, as well as those MPs working hard to join them. Before we get to those assessments, DAN ARNOLD explains the considerations behind closed doors inside the Prime Minister's Office. Arnold ran research and advertising at the PMO for the Liberal government's first six years in office. — If it ain't broke: "It’s worth giving props to ministers who have flown what are often bumpy files with minimal turbulence. Think LAWRENCE MACAULAY at Veterans Affairs or MARC MILLER at Crown-Indigenous Relations. Even though that might make them potential fixers at other departments, it’s probably in the prime minister’s best interest to keep them where they are, so as to not risk creating another problem in the process. Especially on files like these, where stakeholder relationships are key." — People people: "How does the minister interact with their colleagues, both around the Cabinet table and with caucus? Are they a strong communicator? Are they good at politics — as in, are they doing the things on the ground that will help the Liberal Party in the next election? MÉLANIE JOLY was the campaign co-chair for the Liberals in the last election, a testament to the work she’s done to build up the party’s organization in Quebec. Things like that matter as we get closer to an election." — Forward planning: "It’s a safe bet the PM and his team are also thinking about things like campaign co-chairs and platform chairs." — Team players: "If you peruse Liberal Party fundraisers for 2023, you’ll see that SEAN FRASER has held five fundraisers, which puts him head and shoulders ahead of his Cabinet colleagues (he’s also literally head and shoulders above them in group photos). Things like that get noticed. So will ministers who aren’t taking the time to meet with volunteers across the country and do outreach events with key communities." — For the record: Innovation Minister FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE is headlining a fundraiser alongside Agriculture Minister MARIE-CLAUDE BIBEAU at the Ripplecove Hotel & SPA in Bibeau's riding. Tickets go for C$1,000. Tomorrow, Heritage Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ joins Sport Minister PASCALE ST-ONGE for a cinq à sept at Espace Diffusion in Cowansville, Que. Minimum donation: C$250. THE PREMIERS — Canada's first ministers gather today at Winnipeg's Fort Garry Hotel for annual summer meetings. Their conversations on Tuesday will focus on affordability and health care. On Wednesday, they'll dig into "a range of economic issues centered on Canada’s competitiveness and economic growth." Also top of mind for premiers: the B.C. ports strike. Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH penned a letter to the prime minister urging that he recall Parliament and force an end to the work stoppage. Canadian Labour Congress president BEA BRUSKE noted in a news release that bilateral fed-prov health-care deals haven't materialized several months after Ottawa and the provinces agreed to negotiate them. — Also in town: Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Winnipeg. She's touring a child care center and skills training institute. — Sending regrets: Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami President NATAN OBED declined an invitation to attend the Winnipeg talks. In a joint statement to Nunatsiaq News, Obed and Métis National Council president CASSIDY CARON raised concerns about some Indigenous organizations that will be in attendance. The statement named the Congress of Aboriginal Peoples and Native Women’s Association of Canada. “These organizations are not recognized by the four Inuit Treaty Organizations which collectively represent all Inuit, or the democratically elected Métis governments which represent Métis citizens across the Homeland in Inuit and Métis relationships with the Crown,” read the statement. — In related reading: KRISTIN RUSHOWY of the Toronto Star says Ontario Premier DOUG FORD is going to be pushing other premiers to support better co-ordination with Ottawa for big infrastructure projects. FOREIGN INTERFERENCE — Could this be the week that Liberals, Conservatives, New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois will announce next steps in the federal government's investigation of foreign interference in Canadian elections? The parties met Friday evening, and Radio-Canada reported progress on the talks after a brief war of words between PM Trudeau and Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE. Conservatives told CP reporter MIA RABSON that all sides had reached an agreement on the terms of reference for an inquiry. But the Liberals would only confirm a "very productive" meeting, with more talks planned this week. Know someone who would like Ottawa Playbook? Please direct them to this link. Five days a week, zero dollars.
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