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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey | Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. Let's get into it. In today's edition: → Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU meets VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY in Vilnius. → The B.C. ports strike enters its 12th day. → Cabinet advice to Trudeau: "If it ain't broke, don't fix it." |  | THREE THINGS WE'RE WATCHING | | |  Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met today in Vilnius. | Adrian Wyld | UPDATE FROM VILNIUS — Meetings, meetings, meetings. While Ottawa slept, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU attended a leader-level meeting of the North Atlantic Council. Sweden, Indo-Pacific invitees and the EU were also in the room. Trudeau, flanked by chief of staff KATIE TELFORD and Defense Minister ANITA ANAND, also met Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY. Zelenskyy tweeted about the bilat: "We are discussing security guarantees for Ukraine on its way to NATO — we have Canada's understanding, the world's understanding will follow, and we are preparing an important security victory for Ukraine," he said. "I am grateful to Justin and Canada for reinforcing our warriors with armored vehicles. We have reached powerful agreements." |  Leaders at a social event during the NATO summit on Tuesday. | AP | — Bilats, bilats, bilats: Trudeau also sat down today with Lithuanian President GITANAS NAUSĖDA, capping two days peppered with bilateral meetings. His office also published readouts of summit sidebars with Turkish President RECEP TAYYIP ERDOĞAN, Lithuanian PM INGRIDA ŠIMONYTĖ, New Zealand PM CHRIS HIPKINS, Estonian PM KAJA KALLAS, and Slovakian President ZUZANA ČAPUTOVÁ. The Canadian PM plans to hold a press conference at 9:45 a.m. Ottawa time. — War of words: Zelenskyy denounced NATO negotiators Tuesday for failing to offer Kyiv a concrete path to joining NATO in their communiqué, POLITICO’s LILI BAYER and ALEX WARD report. The phrasing that Zelenskyy took issue with: “We will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met.” — Zelenskyy’s response: “We value our allies,” he tweeted. “But Ukraine also deserves respect.” — The fallout: POLITICO’s JONATHAN LEMIRE says Zelenskyy’s reaction overshadowed the sense of solidarity that permeated the start of the summit. PORTS STRIKE — The dockworkers' strike at British Columbia's ports is entering its 12th day. Most big business voices want the federal government to order an end to the stoppage, which has disrupted millions in goods trade every day workers are off the job. Labor Minister SEAMUS O'REGAN is still in Vancouver. He is still insisting a negotiated agreement is the best way to end the mess. He doesn't favor the nuclear option of back-to-work legislation. But the minister appears to be drawing a line in the sand. "I have decided that the difference between the employer's and the union's positions is not sufficient to justify a continued work stoppage," he said in a statement late Tuesday, acknowledging the "hard work" at the bargaining table. O'Regan has asked federal mediators to send him "a written recommendation of the terms of settlement" within 24 hours. (He posted his statement at 10:32 p.m. Ottawa time.) O'Regan will distribute the mediators' terms to the employer and the union — and give both sides 24 hours. "We cannot allow this work stoppage to persist and risk further damage to the relationship between these parties." — Don't you dare: The Canadian Labour Congress sent a preemptive shot across the government's bow, telling PM Trudeau in a letter Tuesday that a back-to-work bill "would be a serious misstep and would be met with strong resistance from the entire labor movement." — Raised stakes: U.S. dock workers refuse to touch Canadian cargo as B.C. port strike continues — A ringer: Sen. HASSAN YUSSUFF, the former head of the CLC, is taking meetings in Vancouver — not on behalf of the government, but as a longtime labor leader. PREMIERS — Canada's premiers capped a day of meetings in Winnipeg with a four-page commitment to "support strong communities." The provincial and territorial leaders listed 18 specific action items on health care, labor, public safety, Arctic security and housing. Much of the communique covered well-trodden ground, including streamlined credential recognition, enhanced labor mobility for workers and increased federal funding of housing. — The closing act: If premiers do plan to make headlines with cameras rolling, they'll get their chance at a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Ottawa time (1:30 in Winnipeg). Like Ottawa Playbook? Maybe you know others who’d like to start the day with a free rush of intel. Point them to this link where sign up is free. | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | |
— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU is in Vilnius.
— Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is in Brussels to co-host the 7th Ministerial on Climate Action alongside the European Union and China, which runs today and Thursday. 6 a.m. (1 p.m. local time) Trudeau will attend a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council. 9:45 a.m. (4:45 p.m. local time) Trudeau will hold a media availability. 8:30 a.m. (2:30 p.m. CET) Guilbeault will make a significant announcement regarding climate financing. 10 a.m. The Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the target for the overnight rate. The BOC will also publish its quarterly Monetary Policy Report. 12 p.m. (9 a.m. PT) Tory leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will hold a press conference in Penticton, B.C. 12 p.m. (10 a.m. MT) Public Safety Minister MARCO MENDICINO and Liberal MP GEORGE CHAHAL will make an announcement about gun crime and gang violence in Calgary. 2:30 p.m. (1:30 p.m. CT) Canada's premiers will hold a press conference at the conclusion of their annual summer meetings in Winnipeg. 9:30 p.m. (6:30 p.m. PT) Poilievre will host a meet-and-greet in Penticton. | | Talk of the town | |
CABINET RESET — Think of airport delays, passport lines, foreign interference allegations and persistent deficits. Conservatives fundraise on every slip — and have already amassed a bursting campaign warchest.
Liberals will defend their cures to what ails those files, yet the literal headaches in a rocky year have certainly proven a boon to aspirin sales. All of which is why, speculators say, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU shouldn't mess with what's actually working if he shuffles his front bench. "If it ain't broke, don't fix it" features as a common refrain in the midsummer fishbowl. — Case in point: Crown-Indigenous Relations Minister MARC MILLER. When he first scored a Cabinet gig in 2019, Miller was known to outsiders as a Trudeau insider — a longtime political supporter and even longer-time close friend, dating to their years at the all-boys Collège Jean-de-Brébeuf in the 80s. Miller was part of Trudeau's wedding party in 2005, alongside future political stars GERRY BUTTS and SEAMUS O'REGAN. (And half-brother KYLE KEMPER, last seen in Ottawa hawking RFK JR's nascent presidential campaign via RV, but we digress.) Miller once spoke to journalist PAUL WELLS about how his friendship with Trudeau translated to their work on the Hill, and why it forced them to develop a professional relationship. "You realize quite quickly that there is a commodity in Ottawa, which is based on your proximity to the prime minister,” he said. “That's something I didn't particularly appreciate, having always been really, really close to him. But it is something people peddle in. And it can also present a lot of pitfalls." — All of which is preamble: Miller is in charge of one of the government's most ambitious and challenging files. First Nations leaders applauded him from the jump in 2019, based on his experience as a parliamentary secretary on Indigenous issues (he hasn't won everybody over). Miller learned Mohawk and spoke it in the House. He also played a key role in a negotiated settlement that produced billions in compensation for First Nations people who faced discrimination in foster care — and wants the PM to apologize to those families. The minister has his critics. The Native Women's Association of Canada recently gave him a failing grade on achieving progress for missing and murdered Indigenous women and girls. Liberals also promised to eliminate long-term boil-water advisories in Indigenous communities.They've ended 142 since 2015, but 28 remain in three provinces. — Challenges ahead: Funding, funding, funding. DAKOTA KOCHIE, a former chief of staff at the Assembly of First Nations who now handles government and external relations at the Nuclear Waste Management Organization, has his eye on the fiscal needs of Indigenous people. "People don’t really have a grasp on how much of an impact Crown-Indigenous Relations and Indigenous Services Canada have on government-wide spending and its impact on Canada’s fiscal framework," he says. "Both [Miller] and Minister of Indigenous Services of Canada [PATTY] HAJDU have their work cut out in front of them to convince the finance minister and the PM that we need to continue investing in major priorities — all while government spending theoretically should be going down." — The verdict: Kochie tells Playbook that Miller should stay put. "Indigenous leaders have gotten really comfortable with him and I think there is an undeniable amount of trust when he is the point person on Indigenous issues. He’s just too good of a communicator on one of the PM’s priority files for him to be shuffled." | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | | RATE HIKE: LIKELY — Economists are about as close to universal as they ever get on the Bank of Canada’s rate announcement this morning. Most think Governor TIFF MACKLEM will hike the bank’s policy interest rate for the 10th time in 14 months. For much of the pandemic, the rate bottomed out at 0.25 percent. Most analysts expect it to hit 5 percent this morning, the highest mark in 22 years. Turns out the consecutive pauses last March and April were more exception than rule, as economic indicators still favor at least one more increase. — Survey says: Twenty of 24 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the bank to lift rates by another quarter-point today and then hold into 2024. Ten out of 11 economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal also predicted another increase; six think it will be the final hike of 2023. Playbook asked a pair of economists what they're watching for in Macklem's announcement and the bank's monetary policy report. ARMINE YALNIZYAN, Atkinson fellow on the future of workers: The explicit goal is to slow the economy. If you are slowing it from 1.5 percent growth, you are flirting with recession. Normally, that would mean higher unemployment on a mass scale. It will for sure mean more unemployment or less pay for those who are already paying the highest costs of inflation: low-paid workers in the service economy, or in construction. They are often young workers, racial minorities and newcomers who have scant hope of catching up on lost purchasing power, as these sectors of the economy see the most churn in labor — leading to less sustained demand for better pay or working conditions. Of course these are the groups of people who will pay the highest costs of containing the contagion. These are always the people who pay the highest costs of economic trouble. JENNIFER ROBSON, program director of political management at Carleton University's Kroeger College: I couldn’t help but notice the Business Outlook Survey from the end of last month said hikes to consumer prices aren’t over. If corporate pricing behavior hasn’t yet “normalized” (per bank-speak), and given that their business survey suggests a strong majority of corporations think inflation will stay above 3 percent for the next two years, I’ll be interested to hear whether and how the bank talks about this in its decision-making. In terms of the political narrative, both JUSTIN TRUDEAU and Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE will want to speak to and about household pressures, because political operatives will tell you: "People vote, corporations don’t." Some indicators suggest a steep increase in the share of households falling behind on credit payments (still below pre-pandemic levels) and the share of households paying 25 percent or more of income on mortgage payments (which the bank sees as an indicator of financial vulnerability to other shocks and pressures).This overlays overall good news about sustained low unemployment and rising participation rates. But if the key input that is now preoccupying the bank is corporate pricing behavior, it’s not clear either party leader seems to have much, if anything, to say. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— The National Advisory Committee on Immunization on Tuesday issued fall guidance on Covid-19 vaccines.
— In the Calgary Sun, RICK BELL channels Premier DANIELLE SMITH's latest thinking on potential future showdowns with Ottawa. — CANADALAND's The Backbench pod visited ANDREA MCCRADY, the dominion carillonneur, in her Peace Tower happy place. — KADY O’MALLEY of iPolitics writes: Why the Liberals will probably hold off on a mid-summer prorogation (for now, at least). — KARAMVEER LALH says Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE is right about Canada’s problems. What he needs now: “a vibrant and optimistic vision for Canada’s future.” — POLITICO’s HAILEY FUCHS reports that foreign governments are paying attention to RON DESANTIS and his attempt to upend Republican politics with a run for the presidency. The feature makes no mention of Canada, though Qatar and Japan come up. | | | PROZONE | | |
Our latest policy newsletter for Pro s, via JAMES BIKALES and SUE ALLAN: Headway and headwinds in a $320B minerals market
In other news for Pros: — The Black Sea grain deal is all but dead. What next? — United Airlines CEO warns of more weather delays as climate warms — Microsoft pauses U.K. legal battle over Activision deal veto — U.S. Energy Information Administration: Rising heat and exports to drive up natural gas prices — U.S. Senate tax chiefs solicit public input on crypto taxation | | PLAYBOOKERS | | YBOOKERS Birthdays: Former chief electoral officer of Elections Canada JEAN-PIERRE KINGSLEY is 80 today. And HBD to Senator SABI MARWAH, journalist MICHELE LANDSBERG, Saskatchewan Minister of Government Relations DON MCMORRIS, Alberta lawyer and conservative campaigner KARAMVEER LALH and former MP ANDY SAVOY. Spotted: Canadian American Business Council CEO SCOTTY GREENWOOD, jumping on a flight alongside New York Islanders legends (and Canadians) DENIS POTVIN and BRYAN TROTTIER. Movers and shakers: An order-in-council formalized TAKI SARANTAKIS' reappointment as president of the Canadian School of Public Service for another five years. The U15-Group of Canadian Research Universities posted a pile of June meetings in the lobbyist registry. Among those on the other side of the table: SARAH HUSSAINI, the prime minister's policy director; SEAN MULLIN, the PM's special adviser on economic affairs; LESLIE CHURCH, chief of staff to CHRYSTIA FREELAND; IAN FOUCHER, chief of staff to FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE; and Tory deputy leader MELISSA LANTSMAN. Pantero Group, a Quebec-based public transit engineering and design company, is exploring funding options. A new listing in the lobbyist registry also mentions "possible Canadian government support for a project proposal to a foreign government." CABC announced Lockheed Martin VP NANCY ZIUZIN SCHLEGEL as board chair. Farewells: Former federal minister MICHEL DUPUY died Sunday at the age of 93. Dupuy was also an ambassador and senior public servant. Send Playbookers tips to ottawaplaybook@politico.com. | | TRIVIA | |
Tuesday’s answer: The U.S. National Park located in Canada is Roosevelt Campobello International Park.
Props to WAYNE EASTER, NIALL CRONIN, JOHN SLONIMSKI, NANCI WAUGH, MAUREEN MACGILLIVRAY, STEPHEN KAROL, GOZDE KAZAZOGLU, HEATHER CHIASSON, GEOFF NORQUAY, CHIP SMITH (“For political nerds, it’s a really cool site to see!”), ROBERT MCDOUGALL, DAN MCCARTHY, BILL PRISTANSKI, GUY SKIPWORTH, SCOTT LOHNES, GREG MACEACHERN, JOHN DILLON, TRACY SALMON and SANDY BERG. Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best. Wednesday’s question: The Haskell Free Library and Opera House straddles the border between this state and this province. Answers to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen: Without Luiza Ch. Savage, Sue Allan and Emma Anderson. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
