| CABINET RESET — Is today the day for a long-rumored, hotly debated summertime shuffle of ministers? No. Global News reporter DAVID AKIN got curious when Housing Minister AHMED HUSSEN "postponed" a St. John's city hall event planned for today. Hussen is a common occurrence on fishbowl shuffle lists. Transport Minister OMAR ALGHABRA also canceled a planned media availability in Vancouver. As did Official Languages Minister GINETTE PETITPAS TAYLOR in Montreal, according to Le Droit's ANTOINE TRÉPANIER. Were their itinerary adjustments some sort of tell that a Monday shuffle was afoot? Again, no. Plenty of ministers who haven't managed to escape shuffle speculation are nowhere near Ottawa today as of this writing. A sampling: Trade Minister MARY NG, FedDev Ontario Minister FILOMENA TASSI and Mental Health Minister CAROLYN BENNETT are in Toronto. Environment Minister STEVEN GUILBEAULT is in Montreal. Tourism Minister RANDY BOISSONNAULT is in Edmonton. Immigration Minister SEAN FRASER is in Nova Scotia. But the cancelations are no accident. Our intel still says the shuffle is on for this week. VOTE AT THE PORTS — The west coast-sized elephant in the room — aka the labor disruption at British Columbia ports — could reach its conclusion over the next few days. The anxiety is real after a raucous week of on-again, off-again dockworker strikes. ROB ASHTON, president of the International Longshore & Warehouse Union Canada, posted online a short letter to five locals Friday after the union's leadership caucus said it would put a tentative deal with the BC Maritime Employers Association to a vote of the full ILWU Canada membership — and recommend ratification. "On Tuesday, July 25, 2023, there will be a Stop Work meeting for the 0800 shift to recommend the Terms of Settlement to the membership," read the letter. "Please check with your Local to confirm the time and location for your Local’s meeting." iPolitics reported the Tuesday meeting will "just be for informational purposes." The full membership vote on the tentative deal would follow on Thursday or Friday. PIERRE POILIEVRE — The Conservative leader is testing his ocularly streamlined look all over northern Ontario this week. Poilievre will attend at least seven events as he winds his way from Kenora to North Bay, though he'll surely pepper his Trans-Canada travails with roadside stops. This is mining country. Expect rhetoric to match the industry. Here is Poilievre's itinerary for the five-day, 2,500-km journey. The route is packed with potential electoral battles, which we unpack with the help of POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE J. FOURNIER's 338Canada analysis. — Kenora: Poilievre kicks off the roadshow today with an 11 a.m. rally at the Perch Bay Resort a few minutes from downtown Kenora. This riding is held by Tory caucus youngster ERIC MELILLO, the two-term MP who has held the riding since 2019. → 338 projection: CPC likely hold. The New Democrats are running a distant second in the riding, where Melillo extended a tight 4-point win over Liberal incumbent BOB NAULT four years ago into a 13-point reelection in 2021. — Thunder Bay: Poilievre's next listed stop today is the Michelangelo Room in the Da Vinci Centre for a 6:30 p.m. rally. The 6,572 sq-ft space fits 1,000, according to the venue website. Two-term Liberal MP MARCUS POWLOWSKI holds this riding (Cabinet minister PATTY HAJDU is one riding over). → 338 projection: Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP. Powlowski's riding is a reliable three-way race. The margin between first and third place has hovered around 6 percentage points in the last two votes, and Fournier's projection has shown volatility among all three contending parties since the 2021 election. — Timmins: Tuesday's docket features a 6 p.m. rally at the Senator Hotel and Conference Centre in the mining city of Timmins, the biggest in NDP MP CHARLIE ANGUS's long-held riding. Angus has won seven elections in a row in this part of the province. → 338 projection: NDP likely hold. Fournier gives Angus an 8-point lead at this stage in the electoral cycle, but the veteran New Democrat's working-class constituents are one of Poilievre's key target audiences (even if he occasionally insults them). — Kapuskasing: Poilievre's Wednesday includes a 6 p.m. rally at the Centre régional de Loisirs culturels, a nod to the region's Francophone community. NDP MP CAROL HUGHES, a Franco-Ontarien and former labor organizer, has won five elections here. → 338 projection: NDP likely hold. Hughes failed to win the riding in her first two attempts in 2004 and 2006, but she's had little trouble keeping it since 2008. Fournier gives the NDP a 98 percent chance of victory. But this one comes with a big caveat. When new riding boundaries eventually come into effect, Kapuskasing shifts to Angus's redrawn riding. — Sault Ste. Marie: Wednesday takes Poilievre to The Machine Shop, an industrial chic canalside event space, for a 12:30 p.m. rally. One of the venue's larger rooms includes "1899 architecture with exposed beam ceilings" — and we know how much the Conservative leader can talk about the meaning of a good beam. → 338 projection: CPC leaning gain. Liberal MP TERRY SHEEHAN is a three-time winner here, but Conservative BRYAN HAYES took the riding in 2011. The Sault is also an NDP target. TONY MARTIN won three close contests during the Layton era. But Fournier gives the Tories a 69 percent chance of reclaiming the riding, with the New Dems a longshot. — Sudbury: On Thursday, Poilievre caps his day with a rally in the Radisson Hotel's Palladium Ballroom (capacity 1,000). Liberal MP VIVIANE LAPOINTE, a rookie, held the riding after PAUL LEFEBVRE, now the local mayor, won twice. → 338 projection: Toss up LPC/CPC/NDP. Tories don't typically compete in Sudbury. The party has finished third in six of the last seven elections, only taking runner-up when the Liberal vote collapsed in 2011. But Fournier projects a three-way race and a 46 percent chance of Conservative victory, at least for now. The trend here leans toward volatility. — North Bay: The road trip's itinerary concludes in House Speaker ANTHONY ROTA's hometown. Poilievre rallies 400-plus supporters at the Best Western's Regency Ballroom on Friday. → 338 projection: Toss up LPC/CPC. Rota has won six of the last seven elections for the Liberals. He lost once, in 2011, to Conservative JAY ASPIN. Fournier gives a slight statistical edge to the governing party, but it couldn't be much closer. Know someone who would like Ottawa Playbook? Please direct them to this link. Five days a week, zero dollars.
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