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A daily look inside Canadian politics and power. | | | | |  | | By Nick Taylor-Vaisey, Zi-Ann Lum and Kyle Duggan | Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook. In today's edition: → The Conservative convention's opening ceremony was nearly a literal circus. → MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE will lead a public inquiry into foreign interference. Guess who took credit? (Everybody.) → We catch up with Canada's “single best” housing analyst (according to PIERRE POILIEVRE). |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | | 
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in Quebec City on Thursday. | Jacques Boissinot | Canadian Press | UNDER THE BIG TOP — There were trapeze artists. There was a “Top Gun” guitar solo played by a floating musician. There was Hans Zimmer's original score from “Interstellar” blaring over speakers. There was a harpist on stage, beside an epic fiddler who broke into a rendition of "My Way." Welcome to the Common Sense Convention™, live from Quebec City — a big tent party with a big top feel. Oh, what donor money can rent for the night. — With polls like these: The Tories can be forgiven for putting on a bit of a show. Just look at the latest numbers. Abacus Data measured a 14-point lead over the Liberals — at the near-mystical 40 percent mark, compared with only 26 percent for Team Trudeau. Angus Reid says PIERRE POILIEVRE beats JUSTIN TRUDEAU by a 2-to-1 margin on the question of who would make the best prime minister. Research Co. pegged the Tory lead at only 6 points — but 37 percent of decided voters still adds to the party's momentum. — The caveats: These are summertime polls. Nobody has declared victory. An election could be as many as two years away. The trusted Nanos Research has Conservatives at 34 percent, just under 5 points ahead of the Liberals — a much tighter late-summer snapshot. — The next opener: When the Cirque du Soleil-esque troupe exited the stage, one of the convention hall's next acts was YVES LÉVESQUE. The former mayor of Trois-Rivières has twice run for the Conservatives in that city, finishing a close third in 2019 and an even closer second in 2021 — when his losing margin was 0.1 percentage points. Levesque blamed his first defeat on a shift in the Quebec electorate after a French-language debate. Then-leader ANDREW SCHEER failed to fight back against questions about his social conservative views, Levesque later told journalist STEPHANIE LEVITZ. Will it be third time lucky? POLITICO contributor PHILIPPE FOURNIER of 338Canada projects a toss-up based on current trends, with a slight edge to Lévesque's Conservatives. — Sure, sure, policy, yes, of course that matters: This is ostensibly a policy convention. The party's national policy committee has already ranked the top 60 policy resolutions submitted by members. Find the whole list here. Making it to the convention guide is only a first step, of course. The road to implementation is long and uncertain. The more controversial the motion, the more obstacles in the way. The resolutions are split evenly among three workshops today where policy geeks will hash it out: defense, foreign affairs and democratic reform; economy and environment; and health, social policy and criminal justice. Delegates can only send a maximum of 10 resolutions to a plenary vote on Saturday. The Tory caucus can offer a position on each one. But even the lucky handful that get full approval are only potential future platform planks. — Don't get too excited: Poilievre has already attempted to selectively squash the dreams of grassroots activists who've fought for what they believe. "Leaders are never bound by convention resolutions," Poilievre told reporters Wednesday when he arrived in town. "But we do take them into consideration." — All eyes on: North Okanagan-Shuswap's Tories want to "protect children'' by "prohibiting life-altering medicinal or surgical interventions on minors under 18 to treat gender confusion or dysphoria." Expect CPC opponents to closely watch the progress of that motion. CAST OF CHARACTERS — Lord DANIEL HANNAN had an unconventional pick for who he wanted most to replace BORIS JOHNSON as leader of the British Tory party last summer: PIERRE POILIEVRE. The Brexiteer and former member of the European Parliament made his cheeky endorsement in a July 2022 column for the Daily Telegraph, praising Poilievre as an “unapologetic tax cutter” who “does not hide from the culture wars” A speaker at the last in-person Conservative convention in 2018, the returning fan favorite is bringing his message to the stage in Quebec City this week following speakers that run the spectrum from old guard to culture warrior. Hannan tells POLITICO Poilievre is one of the most interesting center-right leaders “on the international stage right now” for having “already transformed the demographics of his party, reaching out to young people.” SOCIAL SCENE — Are you a convention delegate who lost your Complete Guide to Hospitality Suites? Want to Bring Home™ fuzzy memories of a good time had by all? We've got you covered. Five keener candidates for the party's national council — the party's highest governing body — are hosting Hilton suites built to charm voting delegates. Doors open at 8:30 p.m.. Polling stations in the convention center open and close Saturday morning. → Alberta's AL SIEBRING is in Room 206A → Ontario's WASEEM BOTROS is in Room 207 → Quebec's ANTHONY MATAR is in Room 306A → Ontario's STEWART KIFF is in Room 306B → Alberta's AMBER RUDDY is in Room 308AB. Did someone forward Ottawa Playbook your way? Click here to sign up for your own edition. It’s free! | | TODAY'S HIGHLIGHTS | | | | 
The road that leads to the G-20 Summit in New Delhi, India, earlier today. | AP | — Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU heads to the G-20 in New Delhi today. The Canadian Press reported overnight that the PM has yet to secure a meeting with India's Prime Minister NARENDRA MODI. Our colleague NAHAL TOOSI has a guide to who to watch there, and why. — Deputy Prime Minister CHRYSTIA FREELAND is in Ottawa with private meetings on her itinerary. 8:30 a.m. Statistics Canada releases its Labor Force Survey for August. 10:45 a.m. Mental Health and Addictions Minister YA'ARA SAKS will be in Toronto to make an announcement “on mental health crisis and suicide prevention support.” 12 p.m. PETER MACKAY takes the main stage at the Conservative Party convention. 12 p.m. A heritage group led by Ottawa lawyer MARC DENHEZ holds a press conference in West Block to advocate for the restoration of 24 Sussex. 5:30 p.m. Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE delivers a keynote speech at his party’s policy convention. STEPHANIE TAYLOR of The Canadian Press previews "the must-see event of the day." | | WHO'S UP, WHO'S DOWN | |
Up: POILIEVRE’s polling numbers, adding spring to his step at his first party convention since becoming leader.
Down: Hopes that the central bank might have ruled out raising interest rates again. | | For your radar | |
COUNTDOWN CLOCK — Ten days until Parliament resumes.
And just as many until Justice MARIE-JOSÉE HOGUE starts her new job heading up a highly anticipated public inquiry into foreign interference. — Circle the dates: Her initial report is due Feb. 29. The final report by December 2024. — Everyone claims a win: Public Safety Minister DOMINIC LEBLANCannounced details behind the inquiry Thursday after “unprecedented” negotiations with the other parties. Soon after, Conservatives took credit for forcing the government’s hand. And New Democrats say they made it all possible. The inquiry emerged out of an all-party process that even conflict-of-interest rules stickler DUFF CONACHER approves of and hopes sets a precedent.But Conacher said the schedule is too slow to bring about legislative changes that will prevent interference in the next election. He appealed for a fall committee study “so a bill can be enacted by fall 2024 at the latest.” — What it all means: Strap in for a pugilistic fall sitting while the process grinds along. — What’s next: Conservative foreign affairs critic MICHAEL CHONG testifies at a U.S. Congressional hearing on Tuesday, where he’ll share his story of being targeted by China. He’ll be followed by Freedom House’s YANA GOROKHOVSKAIA, Safeguard Defenders’ LAURA HARTH and Campaign for Uyghurs’ RUSHAN ABBAS. | | HALLWAY CONVERSATION | |
AFTER THE PRESSER — It’s been two weeks since Conservative Leader PIERRE POILIEVRE name-checked BEN RABIDOUX as the “single best” housing analyst at calculating Canadian mortgage payments.
“I kind of feel like that just puts a big target on me now,” Rabidoux tells Playbook during a phone call this week on the road to Toronto from Owen Sound for a blitz of meetings with mortgage brokers, realtors, developers and insolvency trustees to get ahead on tomorrow’s housing trends. “Honestly, I didn't need the attention,” he says. “But it was nice to get the compliment.” Playbook caught up with Rabidoux, president of Edge Realty Analytics, to talk about the housing data points he’s watching. During our chat, he told us why he turned down an opportunity to be a paid political consultant. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. Pierre Poilievre called you the “single best” housing analyst “at calculating mortgage payments in the country.” How did you get onto the Conservative leader’s radar and reading list? First of all, the data point he was referencing was a chart I've done and posted a number of times on Twitter. Are you talking about the C$3,500 figure he cited [for the average mortgage payment in Canada], or something else? Yeah, that’s the one. And I want to be really clear, because I don't know that it was necessarily explained very well. It's not showing the average mortgage payment per se. It's showing a representation of what the monthly mortgage payment would be to purchase the typically priced home, given prevailing interest rates over time. Every month, I just reproduce that calculation: Here's average prices today, here's interest rates, what's my monthly mortgage payment on day one?
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@BenRabidoux | It's like a really easy visual to see, like, what's happening with affordability. And that chart is really telling because from 2016 to 2021 it was effectively flat. It kind of bounced around between C$1,600 and C$1,700 a month. And then, starting in 2021, it just started to go exponential. First as a function of rising house prices and then as a function of higher rates. Now, you're about C$3,500, which is twice what it was two years ago, which is a remarkable deterioration in affordability. In terms of how he got on the reading list. I want to be clear: In 2021, I consulted with the Liberal Party on their housing platform. I'm not partisan. I have very deliberately declined to be a paid consultant for the Conservatives. I'm happy to talk to anyone across the political spectrum. But I don't know how he came across it. He signed up for my Edge Analytics products. And then, through the course of receiving that research, he reached out for clarification on a couple of points I'd made and then we just kind of started a dialogue around housing. The housing debate has grown into a multi-tendril political topic. Is there an element of the debate you wish policy makers, or the public would pay closer attention to? What’s nobody talking about that we should be talking about? If you go back to my Twitter feed, starting in 2018 and then really ramping up around 2020, and 2021, I started flagging the growth in non-permanent residents in the country. And that all of a sudden kind of exploded as a hot-button issue. Ottawa has a target for permanent residents, right? That’s roughly 500,000. And so if you bring in 500,000, and typically we lose about 50,000 people who move to Costa Rica or whatever — they just don’t come back. On net, immigration on a permanent basis adds about 400,00-450,000 a year. To me, that's a smart number. I don't have a fundamental issue with that target. But separate to that, and what people miss is there's a second cohort that are not permanent residents, they're non-permanent residents. And that number does not have a target or a cap. And crucially, there's some sort of misaligned incentives related to that. For example, I'll just flag one area — international students. The colleges are incentivized to dramatically enhance or expand their international student enrollment because you're typically talking about tuitions that are four to five times what domestic students will pay. There's an incentive there for them to dramatically expand that capacity. But there are no meaningful checks or balances or any targets or limits around that. And there's also no onus for the post-secondary institutions to provide housing for those students. And so the concern that I've had is, as I've watched this number balloon over the last number of years, is that that is going to exert tremendous pressure on the rental market — and then, in turn, will drive a lot of incremental demand into the resale market. To be really clear, we just had the tightest rental market in 20 years last year based on data from CMHC. And we had the strongest rental increase on record. It was a dramatically tight market, almost to the point that I would characterize it as disorderly. It was so chaotic. A lot of that is a function of the fact we added about 730,000 non-permanent residents, almost all of them renters in the past year in the Canadian population. That's going to drive demand in the resale market because people, eventually, will just be like, ‘well, this rental market is crazy. We have to get out of this and buy.’ So they'll reach and buy. It drives demand for single family housing. Because if I buy a single family home in Toronto, I can't cashflow that by renting it to a family. But as an investor, I can earn a positive carry if I were to jam, for example, 10 international students into that [house] and charge them each 500 bucks a month. And that's absolutely what we're seeing. | | ALSO FOR YOUR RADAR | |
CROSS BORDER COLLAB — Canada’s lead cybersecurity agency has alerted the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency to roughly 400 impending ransomware attacks within the U.S. since May, according to a top Canadian cybersecurity official.
The tips, which are also shared in the other direction by U.S. authorities, are part of a new effort in both countries to stem the ongoing scourge of criminal ransomware attacks, SAMI KHOURY, the head of the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security, tells our colleague JOHN SAKELLARIADIS. “We have found ways to spot precursors of ransomware,” Khoury said during an interview in Washington on Thursday. — Quick context: The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency publicly launched its pre-ransomware notification program in late March, shortly before Khoury said Canada stood up its initiative. But Khoury’s remarks are the first indication of how closely the two entities are working together to tackle the problem. — Tell us more: The cooperation between the U.S. and Canada is vital, Khoury said, because so many business and critical infrastructure providers straddle the U.S.-Canada border. — Slow and steady: Despite the progress, Khoury said ransomware remains the number one cybersecurity threat facing Canada. “We are trying to bring attention to the problem because unfortunately ransomware incidents are underreported” by a factor of 10 or even 100 in Canada, he said. | | MEDIA ROOM | |
— In Policy Options, KATHRYN MAY gets into the weeds on fiscal restraint: "Cutting C$15 billion from the public service won’t be that hard. But what’s next?"
— From CHRISTIAN PAAS-LANG of CBC News this morning: Conservatives would love to win more seats in Quebec — but do they need to? — The Globe and Mail’s JEFFREY JONES reports on a global environmental think tank’s analysis that found carbon capture projects are costly compared to renewables, with “questionable” benefits. — TREVOR TOMBE writes on The Hub: “From January to June, we’ve already experienced over 1.6 million work days lost to labor disputes.” — “Two percent is the goal. The plan to get there might be working. But sticking to the plan will hurt the bank, at least in the eyes of Canadians” — writing in The Walrus, COLIN HORGAN explains why with some help from opportunist politicians, faith in the Bank of Canada may have been irreparably shaken. — CBC News put a “This story contains offensive language” warning on DAVID FRASER’s summation of day two of “Freedom Convoy” organizers TAMARA LICH and CHRIS BARBER’s trial in Ottawa. | | PROZONE | |
If you’re a , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter from ZI-ANN LUM: Canada’s foreign meddling inquiry is on.
In other news for Pro s: — IPEF members agree to call out labor violations in supply chains. — JUSTIN TRUDEAU stumps free trade ‘even in this era of protectionism.’ — White House senior adviser JOHN PODESTA: Offshore wind economics 'will work out.' — The Inflation Reduction Act is luring carbon management, battery firms to the U.S. — Democrats' climate law projected to drive record increase in U.S. solar installations, report finds. — DONALD TRUMP’s border wall caused 'significant' cultural, environmental damage, watchdog finds. | | Playbookers | |
Birthdays: HBD to climatologist DAVID PHILLIPS and retired senator ELIZABETH HUBLEY.
Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com . Spotted: The Conservative Party unveiled its new logo, sheds the Canadian Air Force-inspired version introduced by former leader ERIN O’TOOLE. ... CANADA in the No. 2 spot on a ranking of best countries in the world published by U.S. News & World Report. Canadian Ambassador to Portugal ÉLISE RACICOT, with a giant bear. Movers and shakers: The Canadian American Business Council will have a new CEO on Oct. 1. SCOTTY GREENWOOD is leaving the cross-border corporate lobbying powerhouse for a new job at Manulife Financial Group. — BETH BURKE, CABC's U.S. advocacy lead for three years, will start Oct. 1. Crestview Strategy announced that CHRISTINE MCMILLAN will be assuming leadership of U.S. operations on an interim basis. Farewells: Journalist PETER C. NEWMAN died Thursday at the age of 94. The Globe’s obituary, by SIMON HOUPT, begins in 1940 when 11-year-old Czech war refugee Petă Neumann arrived at Halifax’s Pier 21. | | | TRIVIA | | |
Thursday’s answer: On Sept. 7, 1816, “The Frontenac,” the first Canadian-built steamship on the Great Lakes, was launched at Ernestown (now Bath), Ont.
Props to PAT LEFEBVRE, JENN KEAY, JOHN MERRIMAN, GERMAINE MALABRE, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, SCOTT LOHNES, BOB GORDON, ELLA D’SILVA, GORDON RANDALL, BOB GORDON and GEORGE SCHOENHOFER. Today’s question: Who said: “I’m very proud that the little town, which was covered in snow, white snow, full of white people in 1942, and to which our little family came, is now the kind of place in which I can take my role. You couldn’t have 79 different kinds of people on the street if it weren’t Canada.” How is this individual connected to this date in history? Send your answer to ottawaplaybook@politico.com Think you have a harder trivia question? Send us your best. Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Want your brand in front of a key audience of Ottawa influencers? Playbook can help. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Emma Anderson and Luiza Ch. Savage. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |  |
