DECISION DAY — Cabinet typically gathers at 10 a.m. on Tuesdays to do its executive business. This morning ministers will meet at 10:45. They'll also have the election of the new House speaker on their minds. The Commons is back in session at 10, and that's the first order of business. — The candidates: Eight MPs will reportedly keep their names on the ballot. Three opposition parties have one candidate apiece: Conservative CHRIS D'ENTREMONT, New Democrat CAROL HUGHES and Green ELIZABETH MAY. The Liberals have five, including four from Quebec: SEAN CASEY, GREG FERGUS, STÉPHANE LAUZON, ALEXANDRA MENDÈS and PETER SCHIEFKE. — Last-ditch campaigning: Every candidate can opt to make a five-minute speech this morning in hopes of winning over colleagues. That means up to 40 minutes of combined speechifying before a 30-minute break during which the contenders will race to woo the undecideds in the lobbies on each side of the chamber ahead of the vote. — The voting system: MPs must vote in person. They fill out ranked ballots, the same system most major political parties have adopted for leadership elections. They'll select candidates in their preferred order, though they don't need to rank the candidates they don’t support. The sergeant-at-arms collects the ballots, and the clerk of the House counts them. If no candidate has more than 50 percent of the vote after one round, the candidate with the least support is eliminated — and the second choices on those ballots are redistributed accordingly. When the first candidate gains a simple majority, they take the chair. — Vote splits: A week's worth of behind-the-scenes dealmaking comes to fruition today. Indulge us in some secret-ballot speculation. → Oppo winner: The opposition could rally around their own, meaning d'Entremont and Hughes would rank highly among at least the 117 Conservatives and 25 New Democrats, respectively. The likely result: Speaker d'Entremont, especially if Liberals are split and enough of them rank the Tory near the top of their ballots. Another potential result: Speaker Hughes, if she swings more Liberal colleagues than d'Entremont. → Liberal winner: The Liberals could coalesce around a single caucus colleague and even leave d'Entremont and Hughes off their ballots entirely. There are murmurs of a caucus meeting this morning to plot strategy. If an opposition candidate fails to gain a majority of votes in early rounds and the lucky Liberal secures down-ballot opposition support, they could blaze a path to the speakership. → The wildcards: 32 Bloc Québécois MPs whose votes could play kingmaker. THE HOUSE GOAT — Bloc MP LOUIS PLAMONDON, the longest-serving dean of the House ever to hold the position, returns to the chair today for an occasional star turn as overseer of speaker elections. — Longevity specialist: Plamondon bested former Liberal heavyweight HERB GRAY's record-setting 4,802-day run as dean on Dec. 8, 2021. When the uncontested GOAT of the deans was first elected in 1984, the "Ghostbusters" theme song topped Canadian charts. Plamondon is the sixth longest-serving MP of all time. By the end of the year, he'll be fourth. Next April, he'll vault past Gray onto the podium of parliamentary endurance. By January of 2025, Plamondon would pass JOHN GRAHAM HAGGART for second all-time. At that point, only former PM WILFRID LAURIER would have sat longer in the House: 44 years, 11 months, 5 days. Plamondon would hit that mark on Aug. 10, 2029. — Obscure water-cooler trivia for Speaker Election Day: Plamondon is the only MP to have served during every single secret-ballot speaker election since 1986, when the late JOHN BOSLEY resigned the role and the House replaced him with JOHN FRASER. MOAR TRIVIA — Here's one tidbit about each speaker candidate for your morning Slack channels, texts and coffee catch-ups with fellow Hill nerds. You're welcome. → SEAN CASEY has lived in all four Atlantic provinces — born in Newfoundland, raised in New Brunswick, educated in Nova Scotia, employed (and elected) on Prince Edward Island. → CHRIS D'ENTREMONT was once a radio personality in Nova Scotia, described by another local radio personality as "King S--t of F--k Mountain." → GREG FERGUS was a House of Commons page in 1988-89, three years after Procurement Minister JEAN-YVES DUCLOS (and several before KATIE TELFORD). → CAROL HUGHES was marooned by a bad snowstorm in Blind River, Ont., where a couple at the hotel restaurant persuaded her to run in 2008. → STÉPHANE LAUZON has, fittingly given the job, said the word "colleague" more than any other in House interventions. → ELIZABETH MAY is the only American-born candidate. → ALEXANDRA MENDÈS has won three elections in a row, but hasn't yet removed the #OpenToWork label on her LinkedIn profile. → PETER SCHIEFKE was a member of the boy band INMOTION at the turn of the millennium. Yes, there's video evidence. |