GREEN SHIFT — The carbon tax debate also isn't what it used to be. MPs will vote this afternoon on the Conservatives' motion to exempt all forms of home heating from the federal carbon price. Poilievre failed to pass a similar motion on Oct. 24, 2022. At the time, the NDP voted against the motion, calling instead for sales tax to be removed from home heating. But this time 'round, in light of another year of punishing energy bills and a Liberal tax carve-out for home heating oil, the NDP is taking Poilievre's side. — Necessary caveat: If Conservatives and New Democrats can woo the Bloc Québécois to their side, the motion would pass. But don't expect the Liberals to kowtow to opposition demands in that case. Motions are nonbinding on the government. — Still, the debate has morphed: Liberals openly dismiss Conservatives as climate deniers. Energy Minister JONATHAN WILKINSON barked in the House last week — a rarity for the mild-mannered former cleantech exec — that Poilievre's party "has no belief in the reality of climate change and no plan to fight it." But that's not really what today's vote is all about. Liberals have conceded that energy bills are prohibitive enough for heating oil users that they deserve a break. Isn't it reasonable, the opposition will argue, to ask the government why everyone else facing higher costs doesn't deserve one? — Possible outs: As CBC's AARON WHERRY wrote Friday, the Liberals "practically invited the questions and criticisms they've faced over the past week." Wherry mused about a pair of potential climb-downs for a government playing defense: adopt the NDP's sales tax exemption, or expand a free-heat-pump program for heating oil users to homeowners who use natural gas or propane. Whatever the fate of Poilievre's motion, don't forget about another carbon headache. — That other exemption: Senators will vote tomorrow on a contentious committee report on Bill C-234. Tory MP BEN LOBB's private member's bill would exempt certain farming activities — grain drying and the heating and cooling of barns — from the carbon price. Playbook last week explained the nitty-gritty of the Senate politics on the bill. → One faction of senators wants to vote for a committee report that would strip the heating/cooling exemption. The committee approved that amendment by a slim margin. If an amended bill passes third reading in the Senate, the legislation heads back to the House — and face almost certain delay from a government promising an end to carbon tax exemptions. → Another faction, alongside a powerful agriculture industry, wants the bill to pass unamended and become law as soon as possible. On Nov. 2, three senators added their voices to that chorus: PAT DUNCAN, COLIN DEACON and MARY JANE MCCALLUM. — The timing of the vote: 5:30 p.m. on Tuesday. FOREIGN FALLOUT — The safety of more than 17,000 Canadian citizens in Lebanon registered with the federal government, and many more who are not, hung in the balance when Hezbollah leader HASSAN NASRALLAH made extended remarks Friday on the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah appeared unwilling, at least for the moment, to provoke an all-out war on Israel's northern border. — A tinderbox: That's not to say there isn't conflict. Reuters reported back-and-forth missile and rocket attacks on Sunday between Israeli forces and Hezbollah targets. — GAC's warning: Global Affairs Canada advises against all travel to Lebanon. The department's current advisory acknowledges ongoing incidents: "There are violent clashes along the border with Israel, including daily rocket and missile fire as well as air strikes." — Meanwhile, in Gaza: Canadians trapped in the besieged Palestinian territory could potentially evacuate the region via the Rafah border point into Egypt as early as today, CP reported, citing a GAC email to citizens in the area. They had previously been advised that a Sunday departure could be possible, but CP reported the "trickle of foreigners" allowed to use the Egypt crossing "came to a halt on Saturday amid escalating attacks from Israel." The Globe reported Sunday that it was unclear when Canadians would be able to cross. — Phone calls: Trudeau spoke about the regional conflict Sunday with Egyptian President ABDEL FATTAH EL-SISI and the Emir of Qatar, SHEIKH TAMIM BIN HAMAD AL THANI.
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