2024 PREDICTIONS — Playbook is again asking pundits to prove their psychic powers in a bid for bragging rights. We'll roll out their forecasts in a pair of Playbooks as you turn off out-of-office replies and open your team Slack for the first time in weeks. Today, our first trove of questions: — Will there be a general election? Few pundits predicted one in 2023. A few more think one is in the offing this year, but most say Parliament will find a way to survive. Enterprise Canada's MITCH HEIMPEL served up this reliable axiom: "No election for the same reason the turkeys don't vote for Thanksgiving." Translation: The risk of electoral disaster is too great a risk for Liberals (and New Democrats). Texture Communications' MELANIE PARADIS has her eyes on 2025: "The Bank of Canada is starting to indicate rates may come down. If Liberals wait for that to take effect through 2024, the economy may feel better for the average Canadian and that will no longer be the giant elephant in the ballot counting room." → Magic 8 Ball: "Outlook good." — Will Trudeau still be PM at the end of the year? Yes, say most pundits. But that won't stop anybody from asking will-he-or-won't-he questions should Liberal polling remain in the tank or Canada experiences a bonafide recession. Brace for a bevy of columns on Feb. 29, the 40-year anniversary of PIERRE TRUDEAU's Leap Day retirement announcement. → Magic 8 Ball: "Without a doubt." — Will a pharmacare bill be passed into law before summer break? Liberals and New Democrats are in negotiations on legislation. March is the new target for at least introducing a mutually supported bill in Parliament. Earnscliffe's MÉLANIE RICHER and WWF-Canada's MEGAN LESLIE both think legislation will be law by June. Richer is a former comms director to JAGMEET SINGH. Leslie is a former NDP MP and deputy leader. Sandstone's KEVIN BOSCH staked out the middle ground: "I think a pharmacare plan will be announced and advanced but I am not confident a bill will pass by the summer break." → Magic 8 Ball: "Yes." — Excluding vacays, how many countries will Trudeau visit? For two consecutive years, the prime minister has spent time in 13 countries. He has visited the U.S. every year except 2015 and 2020, and the U.K. is near the top of his most-traveled list. Also on this year's list of travel targets that are either probable or possible: Italy for the G7 summit; France for the Olympics or the Francophonie summit (or both); Laos for the ASEAN summit; Samoa for the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting; Peru for the APEC summit; Brazil for the G20 summit; and Azerbaijan for global climate talks, though agenda overlap with the South American jaunt would produce an ambitious transoceanic itinerary. Sprinkle in a couple of bilateral visits, a potential unannounced trip to Ukraine, maybe a side trip to EU headquarters in Belgium after the 80th anniversary of D-Day. There's your 13. Taking the over, StrategyCorp's GARRY KELLER: "When you're down in the polls and doing a foreign visit to Paris is more attractive than battling Poilievre in the House, expect to see a lot of foreign travel in 2024 for the PM." Taking the under, Enterprise's Heimpel: "A prime minister with Justin Trudeau's poll numbers faces more caucus problems the more he's away from home." → Magic 8 Ball: We asked if Trudeau will visit more than 13 countries. Prediction: "Cannot predict now." — When will CHRYSTIA FREELAND deliver her next budget? On this, our correspondents were split largely between March and April. Keller and Heimpel both observed that March includes only a single sitting week, squeezed by March break for most school-aged kids on one end, and Easter weekend on the other. That calendar leaves little room for pre-budget posturing in the House, and pushes mandatory debate and votes on the budget plan back to at least April 8. A momentum killer. How does April look? MPs sit for the second and third week of the month before heading to their ridings for the fourth — space for a five-day budget roadshow — and returning to the House for four potential days of debate and all-important confidence votes. Earnscliffe's Richer is certain of a March budget. She expects Liberal spending restraint to "put more pressure" on the Liberal-NDP deal (and give the New Dems an opening to differentiate their own vision). → Magic 8 Ball: We asked if the budget will come in March. Prediction: "Outlook good." We also asked about April: "Outlook good."
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