Justin Trudeau is back on warfooting

By Kyle Duggan, Zi-Ann Lum and Nick Taylor-Vaisey

Thanks for reading Ottawa Playbook.

In today's edition:

→ With Parliament soon to return, the spotlight is on the still-struggling Liberals shifting heavy into attack mode.

→ TUCKER CARLSON’s northern visit didn’t just amp up the right. He’s firing up the Liberals, too.

→ A close look at how SEAN FRASER is trying to wrangle Oakville on the housing file.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau addressed the Liberal caucus Thursday ahead of next week's return of the House. | Sean Kilpatrick, The Canadian Press

BATTLE LINES DRAWN — When JUSTIN TRUDEAU kicked off the pre-parliamentary caucus festivities Thursday, he adopted a tough tone that contends with the notion he’s checked out. More like: better watch out.

He signaled he’s ready to duke it out with PIERRE POILIEVRE in the House, spelling out the ground he plans to fight on and how he aims to convince Canada his rival secretly wears a MAGA cap (although he’s clearly watching his words now that the primaries are on).

Never mind the polls, the leadership questions, inflation and everything that’s bad right now.

Welcomed by the Liberal caucus chanting he stay for another term, he delivered a rah-rah rally-the-troops speech (as these affairs always are) in front of the media where he branded his rival a “conspiracy” theorist on climate change and one that’s busy filling up his party with ideologues.

He said Opposition MPs get to “avoid talking about” the things they “don’t want to talk about” — Russia, Ukraine, climate — while governments “have to talk about everything.”

— What the PM didn’t talk about: His recent vacation. DONALD TRUMP.

The move to position the party on attack footing comes with just three days left on the clock until Parliament returns and the political agenda explodes with a foreign interference inquiry and more.

Targets are being picked. The engines are revving. The halls of West Block are jamming up with the usual suspects. The agenda is being set.

— Rivals the PM name-checked: Conservative MPs GARNETT GENUIS, ANDREW SCHEER and the outspoken LESLYN LEWIS, “who dines with far-right German politicians.”

He went after party candidates, such as ROMAN BABER (who Trudeau seemed to pronounce as “Roban”), who was kicked out of DOUG FORD’s caucus, and he painted the party as full of “insiders” and “ideologues.”

Durham Conservative candidate JAMIL JIVANI leveraged the attack by the PM to make a meet-the-candidate video.

— Friendlies the PM namechecked: VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY, his first official phone call of the year. Liberal candidate ROBERT ROCK. MPs ROB OLIPHANT, JENNIFER O'CONNELL, RACHEL BENDAYAN, PAM DAMOFF, CHARLES SOUSA, JOANNE THOMPSON and more.

— Unfazed on leadership check: Trudeau didn’t flinch or stop to address the elephant in the room: himself, heading the party as his poll numbers remain grim.

— Failure to launch: Avalon MP KEN MCDONALD managed to briefly set the pre-caucus news agenda to mutiny mode by floating a call for a leadership review. But that’s not a one-man job, and stepping on that particular political rake forced him to recant.

MP after MP shot the story down.

 — Best phrasing: One reporter put the question to BILL BLAIR like so: “Was Ken not using his library voice, but really saying what’s on a lot of other MPs’ minds?”

No comment.

— Most to-the-point: Asked bluntly in French, “Would you be a better leader than Trudeau?”, FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE replied that there’s “no question” about the current leadership: he’s behind J-Trudes.

But has he given any thought to those in Quebec clamoring for a Champagne-led provincial Liberal party? He says he’s too busy these days, especially now that he’s helping lead Canada’s diplomatic charge ahead of the U.S. election, “building relationships with everyone,” in case there’s a change in administration.

— Today’s programming: Later on, a U.N. top court is expected to decide whether to grant emergency measures against Israel. South Africa has accused it of committing genocide against Palestinians.

Foreign Minister MÉLANIE JOLY said Thursday she’ll have more to say after the ICJ ruling comes out.

The Liberals have struggled to straddle communications on the war between Hamas and Israel amid caucus divisions. Trudeau moved to spin internal party turmoil as a plus on Thursday, describing the party in big-tent terms as one that can “meet Canadians where they are.”

CULTURE WAR — Liberals, unsurprisingly, weren't hot about TUCKER CARLSON's sojourn in Alberta and the “MAGA-style conservatism” baggage he brought with him.

“Don’t ask the question if it’s coming to Canada,” Transport Minister PABLO RODRIGUEZ told reporters in Ottawa on Thursday. “It’s already here.”

Ottawa’s response to Carlson amplified the American-style culture war that's settling into the tone of Canadian politics in the run up to an election expected in 2025.

— ICYMI: Liberals really didn’t like it when Alberta Premier DANIELLE SMITH used her spotlight as Carlson’s guest on stage in Calgary to ask him for help in getting Canada's environment minister fired.

Tucker Carlson during his appearance in Calgary this week. | Zi-Ann Lum, POLITICO

— What Smith said: “I wish you would put STEVEN GUILBEAULT in your crosshairs.”

Guilbeault, in response, accused Smith of normalizing rhetoric that could be interpreted as an invitation for political violence.

He also rejected suggestions that Liberals are trying to compare Poilievre to DONALD TRUMP, despite the party spending much of the fall using Trump and MAGA Republicans as a foil to smear Tories. It’s a tactic the party intends to keep up into the next election.

— Power play: The Liberals tried to draw out the Conservative leader, challenging Poilievre to condemn the “hateful and violent words.”

— Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU attends the party’s caucus retreat before participating in the International Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony.

— Deputy PM CHRYSTIA FREELAND will also be at the caucus retreat.

UP: Any Canadian politicians seeking to use a certain former Fox personality as a wedge.

DOWN: KEN MCDONALD publicly setting the table to eat humble pie in front of his colleagues for a few days of Liberal caucus huddling.

STRINGS ATTACHED — The C$4 billion federal housing accelerator fund feels tailor-made for a town like Oakville, Ont. — a growing 905-area suburb nestled alongside Lake Ontario, where Liberals have won convincingly since 2015.

A recent town council meeting offered the clearest sign yet that Oakville will eventually scoop up its share, but not without significant concessions demanded by Housing Minister SEAN FRASER — and a tit-for-tat paper trail of correspondence to prove it.

— Everybody's getting in on it: Oakville is sandwiched between Mississauga and Burlington. Both scored millions from the accelerator fund in recent deals forged with Fraser. So have nearby Brampton and Milton, as well as Guelph a bit farther down the road.

The application process in Oakville offers a case study in what happens when a municipality doesn't immediately adopt Fraser's priorities — and gives a sense of the pressure the minister is under to produce results.

— A seven-month journey: The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation administering the fund initially gave the town an application deadline of June 14, 2023. The town filed the paperwork and waited. A letter eventually arrived from the minister's office.

→ Oct. 25: Fraser urged the town in writing to permit four units as-of-right — aka quadplexes — everywhere in town. The minister also called for denser housing around Sheridan College.

Liberal MP PAM DAMOFF, a former councilor, dropped in via Zoom on a November council meeting to politely remind the room that millions in funding was on the line. Damoff held court with her former colleagues, much to Oakville Mayor ROB BURTON’s occasional consternation.

→ Dec. 21: Burton eventually told Fraser in reply that municipal staff would "undertake a review to evaluate permissions for four units as-of-right across the town, and determine appropriate regulations for their implementation." He also pledged to unlock more housing in the vicinity of the college.

→ Jan. 11: Fraser was left unsatisfied by a lack of detail, clarity and timelines. He said as much in another letter to Burton, telling the mayor the money would come off the table if the town didn't come up with specific commitments. He gave Burton a Jan. 24 deadline.

Otherwise, bye-bye funding.

"In the absence of a clear indication that Oakville will implement suggested changes[,] I plan to award the funding currently earmarked for your community to other municipalities who have concrete plans to implement more ambitious reforms and build more homes than would result from the current iteration of Oakville’s application."

→ Jan. 22: Fraser had his eyes on an evening meeting at Oakville town hall, where councilors approved a motion that would implement rule changes along the lines of Fraser's demands — though they will take months to finalize, inHalton reported.

No word yet from Fraser's office on whether or not council's motion did the trick.

David Lametti (at center) at the G7 Justice Ministers in Berlin in 2022. | AFP via Getty Images

HELLO, GOODBYE — Former Justice Minister DAVID LAMETTI is stepping down.

The Montreal-area MP leaves at the end of the month to join the firm Fasken Martineau DuMoulin to practice Indigenous and tech law — key aspects of his time as minister.

In a statement that at times read a little like a cover letter, at others like a love letter to his time spent as justice minister, he announced with “some sadness that I am leaving a dream job.”

He says he’s proud of his record and accomplishments (check his old mandate letters — there’s a lot crossed off).

In a nod to his stunning fall from Cabinet, he said the time since has been “challenging personally,” and now his constituents would “benefit from a change of voice and style.” He told CTV losing the major Cabinet portfolio was part of his decision, but “not directly” responsible.

— The counter-spin: Poilievre tweeted Lametti leaves behind “a record of Charter violations” and “crime policies that have unleashed waves of violence.”

In an interview on CBC’s "The House" airing Saturday, Lametti disputes the logic behind the recent federal court ruling that said Ottawa overstepped Charter rights by invoking the Emergencies Act to shut down the convoy protests in 2022.

He defended that it led to a “minimal impairment of rights,” and said he believes the appeal will be successful.

— Related reading: “Former justice minister David Lametti resigning as Liberal MP to join law firm” in the Post by CATHERINE LÉVESQUE.

— Caucus loses another: NATE ERSKINE-SMITH spoke briefly with reporters and attributed his decision not to run again for his federal seat to the toll his provincial leadership bid exacted on his family life.

“I just had a relentless leadership campaign,” he said. “We came real close. I've got a seven-year-old and a four-year-old at home, and I love my wife and I'd like to spend time with them.

“If this job were in Toronto, I'd still be running.”

— CPC gains from Ontario: The federal Conservatives have added a familiar face to their ranks, successfully drafting a DOUG FORD cab min.

Former Harper-era parl sec PARM GILL is resigning his spot as minister of red-tape reduction and will give up his provincial seat to run federally in Milton.

"I have known Pierre and Ana for many years and have seen firsthand Pierre's commitment and dedication to making our country better," he said as he announced the move on social media late Thursday.

— The counter-spin: The provincial Liberals say he’s abandoning a sinking ship.

— The counter-counter spin: But Global’s COLIN D'MELLO and ISAAC CALLAN report sources gave them a name that might replace him: former federal MP LISA RAITT, said to be seeking a return to politics.

— Related reading: AIDAN CHAMANDY and CHARLIE PINKERTON report at The Trillium that with Gill exiting, a provincial cabinet shuffle is expected later today.

— Top of POLITICO this hour: Tucker Carlson wanted a fight with Team Trudeau. He got one.

— ALLISON SMITH and ALAN HALE write for Queen’s Park Today that Poilievre's team is “not enthusiastic about the prospect of PC MPPs running under their banner in the next federal election — save for a few potential exceptions” amid worries about a Greenbelt “stench” and lagging "talent."

— The Globe's BILL CURRY reports that the auditor general’s report on ArriveCan will be released Feb. 12.

— The Economist has this analysis on the prospect of Trump in the White House looming over Mexico’s elections.

— CP’s MICKEY DJURIC quotes NDP Leader JAGMEET SINGH on what the pharmacare discussions are like with the Liberals: wrestling eels covered in oil.

— TREVOR TOMBE writes for the Hub: “Business bankruptcies have soared. The bad news is many aren’t being replaced”

If you’re a , don’t miss our latest policy newsletter: A 2024 tip: ‘Just do the relationships.’

New from BEN LEFEBVRE this morning: Biden orders pause on new gas export permits.

In other news for Pro s:

— Canada, UK hit pause on trade talks.

— U.S. Senators push Biden to oppose second Covid-19 IP waiver.

— EV battery breakthrough? Scientists find alternative to cobalt.

— Senators mull the economic perils of ocean warming.

— Will Biden shock global market with LNG stop sign?

— White House clean energy adviser heads to California's 'Lithium Valley.'

Birthdays: HBD to former NDP MP CID SAMSON.

HBD + 1 to Liberal MP ANTHONY HOUSEFATHER!

Celebrating Saturday: CBC parliamentary bureau chief CHRIS CARTER, former Conservative Cabinet minister TONY CLEMENT and ANDREW BEVAN, chief of staff to CHRYSTIA FREELAND.

Celebrating Sunday: Bonne fête to Bloc Québécois MP STÉPHANE BERGERON and former Alberta MLA DAVE QUEST.

Send birthdays to ottawaplaybook@politico.com .

Spotted: KARINA GOULD welcomed the newest member of her family into the world, her newborn daughter TAYA.

MICHAEL COTEAU chatting up Conservative MICHAEL COOPER in a bustling West Block cafeteria packed with Liberal MPs and staffers, including PABLO RODRIGUEZ, BARDISH CHAGGER, STEVEN GUILBEAULT and PATRICIA LATTANZIO.

In the hall on the way into caucus: FRANÇOIS-PHILIPPE CHAMPAGNE and SEAN FRASER giving each other a half-hug and a back-pat. Overheard: An MP expressing relief they made it past the phalanx of cameras preoccupied with other interviews in the narrow hall leading to the caucus room: “I made it through!”

Movers and shakers: The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA) is organizing a Canadian mission to Israel next week. On the trip: Crestviewers CHAD ROGERS and KAREN RESTOULE, Liberal podcast celeb DAVID HERLE, GT&Co.’s LARYSSA WALER HETMANCZUK, National Bank Financial Vice Chair DAN NOWLAN, Canada-India Business Council CEO VICTOR THOMAS, and Italian Contemporary Film Festival founder CRISTIANO DE FLORENTIIS.

Former Alberta energy minister SONYA SAVAGE joined Navigator as a senior adviser.

Counsel Public Affairs is adding Ontario PC Party insider ROB ELLIOT as an associate vice president, and promoting SHAWN CRUZ to senior consultant.

Media mentions: JAY ZHAO-MURRAY joins Bloomberg's Ottawa bureau as economics data editor.

Farewells: Former Ontario ag. minister JACK RIDDELL has died at 92. According to his obit, he died peacefully at Exeter Villa nursing home on Jan. 23.

SIGN UP TODAY — The First Annual POLITICO Canada Trivia Cup is happening!

→ On Feb. 5, there will be a battle of brains among the people who staff ministers’ offices. There are still some open tables in the room, so hit us up to reserve your spot.

The House of Commons is back Monday; the Senate returns Feb. 6.

→ Find House committees here.

→ Keep track of Senate committees here.

We're tracking every major political event of 2024 on a mega-calendar. Send us events and download the calendar yourself for Google and other clients .

Thursday’s answer: ​​Canada won one medal in the first Winter Olympic Games.

Props to TRACY SALMON, HÉLÈNE CHEVALIER, GORDON RANDALL, LAURA JARVIS, CAMERON PENNER, SHAUGHN MCARTHUR, GERMAINE MALABRE, GEORGE YOUNG, JIM CAMPBELL, MARCEL MARCOTTE, CHARLES BIRD and BOB GORDON.

A few more from Wednesday’s inbox: STEPHEN HAAS, ROBERT MCDOUGALL, J.D.M. STEWART and DUANE BRATT. 

Today’s question: According to revamped lobbying guidelines, what is the maximum value, in dollars, of a “low-value gift” for public office holders?

Want to grab the attention of movers and shakers on Parliament Hill? Advertise in our newsletter. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com

Playbook wouldn’t happen without: POLITICO Canada editor Sue Allan, editor Willa Plank and Luiza Ch. Savage.

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Nick Taylor-Vaisey @TaylorVaisey Sue Allan @susan_allan Maura Forrest @MauraForrest Kyle Duggan @Kyle_Duggan Zi-Ann Lum @ziannlum POLITICO Canada @politicoottawa

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